The potential applications of loitering munitions, artificial intelligence, machine learning, and semiautonomy in a battlefield setting are extensive. Loitering munitions, commonly known as “kamikaze” drones, are launched with an explosive payload, circle the battlefield, identify a target, then fly into it and detonate on impact. In the future, command and control of loitering munitions, typically managed by a soldier on the ground, will likely expand to medium- or high-altitude long-endurance (MALE/HALE) drones.
The following vignette will demonstrate one such scenario, featuring the Switchblade as the loitering munition device, and the MQ-9 Reaper as the MALE/HALE drone. The Switchblade is a loitering munition produced by AeroVironment, Inc., and currently in use in the Ukraine war against Russia. The MQ-9 is an unmanned aerial vehicle produced by General Atomic and in service across the Department of Defense. While the devices mentioned in this vignette are real, their capabilities and employment here are fictional and designed to showcase potential concepts of future use in combat.
Killwebs and Mosaic Warfighting
To understand the killweb, one must first understand its relationship to the killchain. Traditionally, a killchain is the series of sequential steps needed to kill in warfare. It begins with target identification, followed by deploying lethal force, and ends with target destruction. Traditionally, tacticians strive to shorten this chain as much as possible to increase speed and efficiency. But what happens when this killchain is broken? This is where the killweb comes in. A killweb is a system designed to integrate nodes of the killchain across the joint force, making the process more flexible and resilient to disruption.
The theory of mosaic warfighting complements the killweb. Mosaic warfighting critiques traditional military design; wherein each warfighting system fits as a puzzle piece, serving a specific purpose as part of a larger system to accomplish the mission. Mosaic warfighting rejects this, and instead seeks systems that work as individual tiles, fitting multiple roles to create unique mosaics of military force.
Vignette: Combined-Arms Raid
A squad-sized ground force is tasked with an airborne raid of a compound to capture/kill a high-value military target. For several weeks prior, a combination of satellite and drone surveillance captured patterns of life in and around the compound. Both hard and soft targets are identified with the assistance of image recognition and multisensor analysis, including guard posts, power generators, and communication connections. Based on the analysis of these targets, a targeteer, using some AI-powered software tools, calculates the required minimum payloads to destroy them and provides commanders with a list of appropriate ordnance options paired with a probability of success score. This score balances multiple considerations such as proportionality, collateral damage, and known enemy air defense into its assessment.
Relevant data is then downloaded into tablets for controlling loitering munitions carried by the ground forces and saved in a secure cloud-based server for MQ-9 Reaper pilots and other joint-force operators to access as needed. Switchblade “kamikaze” drones are selected as the primary ordnance for the identified targets. These small drones are carried both by the forward air controller (FAC) on the ground and by the MQ-9 on-station above. These devices can be programmed to launch while the team is in the assembly area, loiter while the team approaches their attack position, and strike just prior to actions on the objective, thus maintaining the element of surprise. Their small size and low operating altitude make them more resilient to enemy air-defense, while the capability to launch and control them from multiple agents creates a web resilient to interruptions that would break a traditional killchain.
The ground team deploys, while overhead an MQ-9 carrying a pod of Switchblade 600s launches them above the battlespace. These devices can loiter for up to 40 minutes, allowing for sequenced strikes from the munitions in coordination with the ground team’s movements.
When the ground team gives the signal, the Reaper pilot guides the first Switchblades to strike their preset targets, taking out the power, communication, and enemy overwatch position. As the raid team meets enemy resistance, the FAC on the ground uses a tablet with imagery of the compound to direct more loitering drones launched by the MQ-9 to strike entrenched enemy positions. Switchblades fly into windows and through doorways, exploding on impact and killing enemy combatants.
From above, the MQ-9 identifies a group of unknown personnel exiting the back of the compound and its operator directs a Switchblade to engage them. As the device approaches, it uses object-recognition software to identify the personnel as civilians fleeing the battle. At this point the Switchblade is on its final glide path to intercepting the target, but pre-set rules of engagement criteria trigger internal ordinance to an inert status. This automated chain of events cycles faster that human cognitive decision making, and the five-pound drone crashes to the ground without detonating—saving civilian lives. An internal kill switch fries all sensitive software, preventing enemy intelligence from collecting and reengineering the device.
As the raid team enters the building, a hostile quick-reaction force (QRF) approaches via a helicopter to intercept the raid team. Using sensor-fusion, the AI autopilot assisting the MQ-9 identifies the approaching aircraft as hostile, then begins to analyze a proportional response. The AI decides on a swarm of the remaining Switchblades to intercept the enemy helicopter’s flightpath, and the MQ-9 pilot approves the recommendation. Seeing the incoming drones, the helicopter pilot deploys flares and attempts evasive maneuvers. This is to no avail, as the Switchblades are tracking the helicopter through a multiple array of visual and sensory data. Some Switchblades miss the target but—as predicted by the AI’s probability software—enough make contact with the aircraft’s most sensitive parts that the enemy QRF is downed.
At this point, the raid is finished, and the ground team extracts. Even though the MQ-9 has deployed and expended all of its Switchblades, the FAC carries a set of smaller Switchblade 300s capable of launching and then connecting to the MQ-9 system in the air to continue providing support. Thus, the team is covered throughout the duration of the raid. There is no need for replacement aircraft to arrive on station, nor is there a gap in coverage.
After the raid, all recorded Switchblade sensory data is processed through Palantir’s machine-learning software to analyze trends in successful and unsuccessful strikes. This feedback loop is verified by human analysts and used to patch software and develop upgrades to hardware systems.
Looking Forward
Conventional air support provided by traditional fighter aircraft cost the taxpayer $23,000–$38,000 per aircraft, per flight hour. This number is doubled because of the requirement to deploy a minimum of two aircraft. Meanwhile, the MQ-9 averages only $5,000 per flight hour, with the ability to remain on station for up to 27 hours. Each Switchblade 300 costs approximately $6,000 per unit. This is significantly lower when compared with Hellfire air-to-ground missiles, which cost between $71,000–$150,000 each. Furthermore, traditional ordnance does not have the ability to loiter once launched, allowing joint-access for command and control. Nor does it offer the same level of precision flying as a drone.
With conventional air assets, a platform is no longer an asset to the flight once it expends all its ordnance. However, Switchblades launched from the FAC on the ground can be directed by an MQ-9 pilot to continue to provide air support using battlefield integration. Likewise, FAC on the ground can control Switchblades launched from the air. Thus, the killchain does not break even if the MQ-9 is taken out of the fight. This increased resiliency and flexibility transform traditional killchain concepts that rely on sequences vulnerable to interruption, into a killweb that better supports the mission and the warfighter.