What a year 2022 has been! Going into the holidays last December, the world’s attention was focused on a large Russian military buildup on the border of Ukraine. The question of the day, every day, was, “Will he, or won’t he?” Putin answered that question to the detriment of the entire world by invading Ukraine on 24 February. Most had put the odds of that crime at 50/50, but few would have bet on Ukraine’s successful defense and ability to play “David” to Russia’s “Goliath.” What lessons can we take from the war so far? Perhaps the key lesson in my mind is the reinforcement of Napoleon’s adage, “The moral is to the physical as three is to one.” To that point, Robert McKeown won 3rd prize in the Naval Intelligence Essay Contest with “Assessing Military Capability: More than Just Counting Guns.”
Another key lesson from the Russia-Ukraine war regards armaments: The small, cheap, and agile are decimating the large, expensive, and ponderous. Hand in hand with that lesson is the necessity for good, persistent intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR).
Xi Jinping’s ever-tightening grip on power within China has also been a major theme of 2022—leading U.S. national security experts to declare this the “decade of maximum danger” for the China-Taiwan situation. The latest U.S. National Security Strategy pins hopes on “integrated deterrence”—a concept some say is only PowerPoint deep. Several Proceedings articles, however, offer more details for dealing with China’s military buildup. “Repair Time Is the Critical Variable,” by Navy Lieutenant Keegan Hoey, reminds us that “the United States will not win a protracted war without a way to fix ships quickly and send them back to the fight.” Scott Savitz updates the idea of World War II barrage balloons as a way of dealing with antiship missiles. “Aerial Minefields Can Put the ‘Miss’ in Missiles” recommends swarms of unmanned aerial vehicles that can release clouds of metal or ceramic shards to damage inbound missiles. Think drone-launched, rapid-blooming offboard chaff that will not just confuse missiles but damage them. Coast Guard Lieutenant Commander Kristopher Thornburg’s “Responding to Drone Swarms at Sea” opens with a frightening but realistic hypothetical and offers several approaches to deal with the threat.
In the latest installment from the Maritime COIN project, retired Navy Commander Phil Pournelle, argues for an “integrated maritime force” to be present in the South China Sea 24/7/365. His article, “It Will Take More Than an MLR to Fight a Maritime Insurgency,” argues for upgunning a Marine littoral regiment with Navy and Coast Guard assets. This piece is an excellent follow-up to Captain Josh Taylor’s “A Campaign Plan for the South China Sea” in the August issue.
Next year is the Naval Institute’s 150th anniversary. Our own Denis Clift is combing through the Proceedings archive to find the best articles on weapons, education, training, leadership, submarines, Marines, aviation, and other key topics over the past century and a half. Each issue in 2023 will include a bonus eight-page heritage section. You will not want to miss it!
