From October 4 to November 3
Naval Negotiations
Invitations to January Conference.—In the course of their week-end conference at the President’s camp in Virginia, President Hoover and Premier MacDonald issued an announcement on October 6 that January 20 had been agreed upon as the opening date for the five-power naval conference, and that invitations would be sent out next day by the British Foreign Office to France, Italy and Japan. Notable points in the invitation were: (1) Inclusion of battleship reduction as a suggested subject for consideration; (2) Anglo-British agreement as to desirability of abolishing submarines; (3) Definite recognition of parity between British and American fleets, the British fleet to be taken to include warcraft of the various dominions; (4) Provision for preliminary discussions with other powers and for suggestions as to the agenda of the conference.
Favorable Replies.—Within a week after the issue of invitations to the naval conference, favorable replies were received from Japan, Italy, and France. No conditions were attached to these replies. The French acceptance was despatched by Premier Briand on October 16, regardless of the fact that his cabinet had wished further time to discuss it. The only significant feature of Premier Briand’s note was its emphasis on the point that the work of the conference was to facilitate the task of the League preparatory commission, and that of the later general conference on disarmament under League auspices.
Franco-Italian Parleys.—While arrangements for the London conference were going on, the Italian government made overtures to France for preliminary naval negotiations on the general basis of (1) parity for French and Italian fleets, (2) interdependence of naval, land, and air disarmament, (3) fixation of maximum total tonnage, with freedom for each nation to allocate this total among the various categories of ships according to its own preference. Negotiations between the two powers were in fact already under way at the time of the fall of the Briand Ministry. France, while arguing that her colonies and two coast lines called for a larger fleet than Italy’s was willing to offer guaranteed parity of forces in the Mediterranean. The size of the French and Italian fleets in the Mediterranean will of course be a factor in determining England’s cruiser requirements. As regards submarines, France will oppose abolition, but will accept limitation of size to 600 tons.
American Delegates.—Before the close of October it was announced that Secretary of State Stimson would head the American delegation, with Senators Reed of Pennsylvania and Robinson of Arkansas as additional members. Rear Admiral William V. Pratt and Hilary Jones were selected as chief members of the technical staff. It was expected that Ambassadors Dawes and Hugh Gibson would complete the delegation.
Premier MacDonald’s Visit.—Premier Ramsay MacDonald’s long anticipated American visit began with his arrival in New York on Friday, October 4. With his daughter Ishbel he spent the week-end in conferences at President Hoover’s fishing camp in Virginia. After a series of visits, dinners, speeches, and conversations in Washington, the Premier returned to New York on October 10, where the chief event was a dinner given by the Foreign Policy Association at which Mr. Elihu Root presided. Three days later the Premier left for brief visits to Ottawa and other Canadian cities. He was back in London a month after his departure. Premier MacDonald’s ready eloquence, sincere idealism, Scotch humor, and canny skill in avoiding dangerous definitness of assertion combined to make his visit a complete success in furthering the cause of Anglo-American understanding.
Topics and decisions of the Premier- Presidential conferences remained indefinite. It was understood that tariffs, American entry into the league, and war debts, were taboo; that, in addition to strictly naval problems, the topics broached included measures for preventing liquor smuggling, renewal of the Anglo-American arbitration treaty, trade rivalry in the international field, and the old problem of neutral commerce in wartime, or freedom of the seas. A joint statement issued on October 9 contained the following points: (1) “We have agreed that all disputes shall be settled by pacific means,” and that the Kellogg Peace Pact is to be accepted “as a positive obligation to direct national policy in accordance with it; (2) We approach historical problems [e.g. trade rivalry and freedom of the seas?] from a new angle and a new atmosphere .... their solution has become possible .... our two governments will begin conversations upon them; (3) We have been able to end competitive building .... by agreeing to parity of fleets, category by category.” Premier MacDonald made a supplementary statement, as follows:
I have achieved more than I hoped. The one thing that was ever possible from a short visit like this was to get into personal contact with the President and to get it definitely stated in a common pronouncement that Anglo-American policy would be conducted on the assumption that not only was war between us impossible, but that our Navies would not come into conflict with each other.
We have both reiterated our adhesion to the pact of peace, and, moreover, have announced to the world that we are going to apply it in our practical policy. We have both agreed constantly to keep the pact in front of us and to use it for the purpose of coming to an agreement on subjects which have defied agreement up to now.
In consequence of that, I take with me to London a series of questions all of which are now to be the subject of study by the various departments concerned and of consideration between the Dominions and ourselves with the object of coming to agreements upon them.
All this has been arrived at, not for the purpose of dividing America and ourselves from the rest of the world but rather, as is indicated in an early paragraph, to enable each of us to be more effective than ever in cooperating with other nations to establish the security of peace.
British Bases in Western Atlantic.—Referring to the conferences between President Hoover and Premier MacDonald, the New York Times (October 9) wrote as follows:
The question of demilitarizing the British naval bases in the western Atlantic is understood to have been touched on, but whether any decision was reached has not been disclosed.
The subject has arisen in unofficial speculation from time to time, but not until now has there been any evidence that it was occupying the attention of the official negotiators. It appears to have been taken up by the President and Prime Minister as laymen and not at the prompting of either the British Admiralty or the United States Navy Department.
Four bases are involved, those at Bermuda, Kingston (Jamaica), Trinidad and Halifax. As to the latter, the consent of Canada would be specifically required for demilitarization, and it is possible that Mr. MacDonald will mention the subject in his conversations with Premier Mackenzie King later this month.
So far as United States naval experts are concerned, there is only lukewarmness for the proposal, as they do not consider the British Navy a menace to the United States and recognize that the bases are important for the protection of British trade routes.
It is felt also in some circles that should Great Britain determine to demilitarize the bases, demands might follow from other powers for the demilitarization of the Panama Canal. The argument could be used that the Suez Canal is bare of military defenses and that there is no need for coast defenses at the Panama Canal. That American military and naval chiefs are opposed to removing the defenses of the Panama Canal is well known.
“A Strong Man Armed.”—The Living Age of October 15 quoted the following editorial from the London Morning Post as expressing British conservative opinion in naval reductions;
The British people, who love their Royal Navy, and know what dreadful fate it saved them from in the Great War, are naturally nervous about these disarmament negotiations. They do not like the precipitation with which the Prime Minister rushed into the subject:
I will wear my heart upon my sleeve.
For daws to peck at.
Nor do they like his favorite argument, which connects the pursuit of peace with the reduction of the Navy. They may be forgiven for preferring an authority whose humanity and whose wisdom it would be impious to question: “When a strong man armed keepeth the house, his goods are in peace.”
GERMANY
Death of Foreign Minister Stresemann.—With the death of Foreign Minister Gustav Stresemann on October 3, Germany lost a statesman universally recognized as her wisest and ablest since the war. Herr Stresemann died suddenly from apoplexy, aggravated by chronic kidney trouble. For five years he had maintained the conduct of foreign affairs through changing ministries and constant party strife, pursuing steadily his policy of international understanding and economic recovery. Among the accomplishments in which he was largely instrumental were the Locarno agreements, Germany’s entrance into the League, the signing of the Kellogg Peace Treaty, and finally the successful negotiations for the Young Plan. Upon the ratification of the latter he had planned to give up public life. At the imposing state funeral in Berlin on October 6, his body, like that of Friedrich Ebert, first Reich President, was borne through the central arch of the Brandenburger Tor, formerly reserved for Hohenzollerns.
GREAT BRITAIN
Dominion Status for India.—In a statement at the close of October the British Viceroy of India, Lord Irwin, declared, “I am authorized on behalf of the Government to state clearly that in their judgment it is implicit in the Declaration of 1917 that the natural issue of Indian constitutional progress as there anticipated is the attainment of dominion status.” While a definite indication of the policy of the present Labor Government, this statement was not, however, intended to anticipate the findings of the Simon Commission, which, after two years’ study of Indian government problems, will submit its report early in 1930. This, according to present plans, will be followed by a conference of British and Indian representatives, after which the proposed reorganization will be drafted into a Parliamentary bill.
FRANCE
Tardieu Forms New Cabinet.—On November 2 Andre Tardieu, wartime High Commissioner of France in the United States, succeeded in organizing a new French cabinet after one of the most confused ministerial crises in recent French political history. The cabinet was composed of representatives of the Center and Right center parties, after refusal of the Radical Socialists (the chief moderate Left group) to collaborate. In the event of failure of the Tardieu Ministry to command a safe majority in the Chamber, a new election may be necessary. In the new cabinet M. Briand retains control of foreign affairs.
The fall of the Briand Ministry, which had held office since the illness and resignation of M- Poincare last July, came unexpectedly on October 22, the first day of the parliamentary session, when M. Briand’s resolution to defer discussion of foreign policy was defeated 288 to 277 by a combination of the more extreme Right and Left parties. M. Edouardo Deladier of the Radical Socialists at first attempted to form a new ministry but failed through refusal of the Socialists to join with the more bourgeois Radical Socialists. His failure was followed by that of another Radical Socialist leader, M. Etienne Clementel.
INTERNATIONAL BANK
Work of Organizing Commission.—At the close of October the international committee of bankers, which had been in session at Baden-Baden throughout the month, had practically completed its task of setting up the framework of the new Bank of International Settlements. The final text of the bank’s statutes and charter had been worked out, and it was hoped that the trustee deed, setting forth the conditions required of the nation in which the bank is to be located, would be ready for approval at a plenary session on November 4. In concluding their work, however, the bankers left unsettled a number of problems which will have to be taken up again at another conference of political representatives at the Hague, chief among these being the question whether the seat of the bank is to be in London, Brussels, or some Dutch or Swiss city. In general the committee inclined toward limiting the functions of the bank rather strictly. Its operations in any given country will be subject to the approval of the central bank of that country, and revision of its statutes in more important matters will be controlled by the governments under whose auspices the bank is being created.
LATIN-AMERICA
Paraguay-Brazil Treaty.—On October 28 the Paraguayan Chamber after long debate ratified a treaty with Brazil settling an old dispute between the two countries over certain territory on the west bank of the Paraguay River. Although the treaty apparently sanctioned Paraguay’s claims to territory which is also disputed with Bolivia, its ratification was hotly opposed in the Chamber, chiefly because of hostility toward the government’s pacific policy in consenting to negotiations with Bolivia.
Chaco Dispute Unsettled.—Following the breakdown last summer of the efforts of the international commission appointed to settle the boundary quarrel between Bolivia and Paraguay, the American State Department has sought to have a new commission appointed in which the “A B C” powers (Argentina, Brazil, Chile) should take an active part, and which should convene at Montevideo. The “A B C” powers, however have shown clearly their preference for “hands off,” and moral support only, in the settlement of a problem so close to their own frontiers. Meantime war sentiment in the two countries has again been aroused by an alleged speech of ex-Foreign Minister Elio of Bolivia, in the course of which he is said to have declared that at the time of the Chaco crisis Bolivia refrained from war simply because shipments of war munitions had not come in.
FAR EAST
Civil War in China.—During October the long threatened uprising of disgruntled generals against the Nanking government was in full swing. According to the Nanking version of the revolt, it was due primarily to the efforts of the central government to cut down the immense military forces scattered through the country. Leaders of the Kuominating or “People’s Army” (to use the name adopted by the rebels) emphasized, on the other hand, the corruption and narrowly partisan make-up of the Nanking rule, and declared that the government was disbanding only those military forces not under its direct control. During the month Manchurian leaders maintained neutrality between the two factions, and a similar attitude was taken by Yen Hsi-shan, the “model governor” of Shansi, whose accession to either side would have been sufficient to determine the outcome. Much depended on the ability of Nanking to raise funds with which to buy off the various rebel factions. At the close of October rival forces reported as numbering upwards of 200,000 men on each side were gathered in Hupeh and Honan provinces north of Hankow; President Chiang Kai-shek had established headquarters at Hankow; and conflicts on a major scale were in progress.
Sino-Soviet Negotiations Fail.—During the last week of October negotiations between China and the Soviet Republic over the Chinese Eastern Railway again fell through both at Manchuli and at Berlin, and according to the Nanking government, the Soviets showed no real desire to reach a settlement. In reality the Soviet government could scarcely be blamed for hesitating to negotiate with Nanking in the midst of civil war, and with the prospects that any weakening or breakdown in Central China would lead to an easier bargain with the young Manchurian dictator Chang Hsueh-liang.
With the approach of cold weather frontier hostilities quieted down, and the seven Russian gunboats which had been operating on the Sungari and Amu Rivers were withdrawn to winter quarters.
New Afghan Ruler.—Nadir Khan, former foreign minister under King Amanul- lah, was on October 15 proclaimed Amir of Afghanistan. The accession of Nadir, fourth ruler of his country within a year, came after a short campaign in which his followers captured Kabul and drove out the bandit usurper Bacha Sakao, who had held the throne for ten months preceding. Bacha and 1,000 followers surrendered a week later, and Bacha himself was afterward put to death. Nadir restored officials formerly employed under Amanullah, received congratulations from Amanullah himself, and two or three days later was officially recognized by the Soviet government.