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By Michael Vlahos
Some stable, long-term trends in maritime power emerged in the Magreb-to- Malabar region during 1989.
Only four states—Saudi Arabia, Israel, India, Pakistan—are pursuing naval programs that reflect aspirations to regional maritime significance. Two of these, Israel and India, stand out—for two reasons: Each is developing indigenous weapon technologies of real sophistication that may give it some naval capabilities rivaling those in the West. And each could become a major exporter of naval vessels and weapon systems. Israel’s delivery of two Super Dvora-class patrol boats to Sri Lanka in 1988-89 underscores this trend.
Many states that were active in the 1970s and early 1980s are now weak, whipped, and indebted. In an era of free money, they borrowed heavily, pumped up their fantasies of future historical importance, and embarked on spending sprees and adventures. The Third World naval market is a bit like the U.S. automobile market: consumers in both are in debt and overextended. In 1989, very little acquisition activity was seen in Algeria, Bahrain, Dubai, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Sri Lanka, and Syria.
The European Community’s (EC) increasing dominance in the Mideast arms market reflects a major trend in future economic and political relations between the two regions. In the last four years, EC arms exports to the Middle East as a percentage of the total supplied surpassed those of the United States, 21% to 16%. This could be an important barometer of waning U.S. influence and interest in the region during the coming decade.
55-meter Osprey-class patrol boats were ordered from Danyard in Denmark on 30 January 1989. The third of six ordered Vigilance-class (a reduced-power version of the Lazaga class) patrol boats, the El Akid, was delivered in March 1989 from Bazan shipyard in Cadiz, Spain. Morocco also may order two improved Des- cubierta-c\ass frigates from Spain.
Algeria: No significant naval developments were recorded in 1989.
Tunisia: Tunisian naval activity is limited to a continuing program of nine 20- meter customs craft being built with South Korean assistance at Socomena shipyard in Bizerte. Bids were requested during 1988 for six 55-meter guided- missile boats, but no orders have been announced. Several older units of the fleet have expired in the meantime, including the small frigate President Bour-
Libya: A Libyan government-owned merchant ship, the roll-on/roll-off (Ro/ Ro) motorship Garyounis, was employed during 1989 as a naval cadet training ship. Built for the General Maritime Transport Company, this 2,412-gross registered-ton vessel is one of three Libyan vehicle cargo ships used for a variety of purposes. The Ro/Ro ships El Timsah (lost to fire in 1986) and Ghat are both suspected to have been involved in minelaying activities in the past.
The Levant
Egypt: Egypt continues to set its naval acquisition sights on used equipment. K ordered two refurbished ex-British Oberon-dass submarines, the Oberon and the
the
more significant.
Walrus, from the Staforth Group in Rosyth, Scotland, in September 1989. When rehabilitation is complete, they are expected to give Egypt another 15 years °f active service. The Egyptians have averred that eventually they want a total eight Oberons, but with the Royal Navy’s Upholder program stalled at four boats, it is likely that the British will refit and keep some of the Oberons in their order of battle.
The search for a solid previously owned Western submarine may well be Justified. Egypt’s four Chinese-built Romeos are to undergo a protracted refit in Egyptian yards. The U.S. Congress bnally gave the go-ahead for Tacoma “oat’s involvement in the project in July '^89, and the refit is now expected to Jake more than five years. What will a womeo be worth in 1995?
Israel: The evolution of Israel’s mari- buie power took a major step in 1989. *Wo Dolphin-class submarines are to be uilt by HDW in Kiel, West Germany, ^Uh the official order coming through in ePtember 1989. Ingalls in Pascagoula, "Mississippi, signed in February 1989 to uild three Sa’ar-V guided-missile corvettes. These ships will extend Israel’s Maritime reach significantly.
An important supporting development 0r realizing long-range naval operations ls Jhe indigenous development of an Is- jaeli airborne warning and control system AWACS), the ELTA Phalcon (phased array conformal) airborne radar platform. ,ts detection range is claimed to be 230 dometers for cruise missiles, 350 kilometers for aircraft, and up to 500 kilome- ers for ships. Tanker-extended fighter c°ver and possible local satellite coverage will give Israel special capabilities, if Jjeeded, in the central Mediterranean, ms long-range reach was argued explic- y and openly this year as the defense ebate sharpened in a political context of erall defense austerity. Defense has a Men from 30% of the national budget in "^8 to 17% in 1988. This year that share (Sff CUt ky an°ther 120 million shekels j ^ million). Naval mission expansion n a declining budget situation is thus all
Israel will modernize the aging Sa’ar-
IV guided-missile patrol boat force, possibly adding the Hellstar remotely piloted vehicle.
The Chilean buy of two Sa’ar-III-class guided-missile patrol boats, the Iquique (ex-Hanit) and Covadonga (ex-Hetz), is complemented by the first export order for the Barak surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, to be backfitted to Chilean County-class destroyers.
Israel continues to hawk its well-liked patrol boat design, the Super Dvora. The first Israeli Navy unit was delivered in January 1989, and the second in May.
Syria: The training ship/transport Al Assad, displacing roughly 3,500 tons, was delivered in 1989 from Polnocny Shipyard in Gdansk, Poland.
Lebanon: The meager naval strength of some Lebanese factions, consisting mainly of patrol boats, continues to be dominated by the Syrian blockade.
Jordan: The King has decided to renew the small Jordanian Coastal Guard, which patrols a 12-mile maritime border on the Gulf of Aqaba. He ordered three nice patrol boats in March 1988 from Vosper in England. The first, aptly named the Al Hussein, began trials on 17 May 1989. The second, the Al Hussan, was running trials in December 1989. The third will be named the Abdullah. There is only one little glitch: the King is alleged to be late on his payments.
The Arabian Gulf
Iran: In what was perhaps an important symbolic gesture, Iran announced that it was successfully repairing the frigate Sabahw, severely damaged in action with U.S. forces on 19 April 1988. There is, however, no word on her return to active service. Also in a symbolic vein, the Iranian Navy conducted several extensive naval exercises in 1989. One was in the Indian Ocean in March and included extensive port visits to East African nations and Pakistan. Iran’s major annual exer- . cise was staged on schedule, beginning on 22 November in the Gulf of Oman, and was marked by combined exercises with rocket-equipped patrol craft of the normally independent-minded Revolutionary Guards.
In real terms, Iran has little cash to re
Israel is becoming a major developer and exporter of weapon technology; witness its sale of two more Super Dvora-class patrol boats (facing page) to Sri Lanka. Two major foreign purchases also are in the works: two Dolphin-class submarines from West Germany and three Sa’ar-V-class guided-missile corvettes (left) from the United States.
build its rundown fleet. Iranian estimates suggest that $15 to 25 billion would be needed to restore Iranian ground forces to fighting form (translating into 2,500 tanks, 2,000 guns, etc.). Although similar naval estimates might reasonably be placed at one-third or one-quarter of army needs, the army will have priority. And its rebuilding will take years. Iran is a long way from revisiting the dreams of the Shah.
Iraq: Iraq must pay its debts if it is to buy the weapons it needs to rebuild. To show its bona fides to French creditors, Iraq has agreed to meet French terms in a debt-rescheduling package for 8.8 billion French francs out of a total debt of 25 billion French francs built up during the war. In exchange, the French will reopen the arms pipeline to Iraq.
Iraq ordered six AS-332F Super Puma helicopters (which can fire Exocet missiles) and six AS-365F Dauphins with AS-15TT wire-guided missiles. Although the French helicopters were supposed to begin delivery in fall 1989, five Agusta AB-212 and five A109A helicopters ordered from Italy in 1984 will not begin to arrive until 1990-92. Iraq has received, and paid for, two of the six corvettes and the oiler Agnadeen, built in Italy, but the four Lupo-class frigates and the remaining four corvettes are still at their Mediterranean moorings. The embargo on their delivery has been lifted, and there is some hope that all may arrive in Iraq in 1990. Barring delivery to Iraq, there is no ready market for these ships and it will be difficult to recoup their cost. Since Italy abandoned the NATO NFR-90 program, its navy has identified a need for another tranche of Maestrale-c\ass frigates. Budget pressures may preclude this path; why not simply take over the Iraqi Luposl
Saudi Arabia: Missile frigates, minehunters, a continued coast guard rejuvenation, and even submarines; all this adds up to an impressive rounding out of the Saudis’ recent naval quest.
Three of a new class of frigate, called the FL3000, were announced as part of an arms package signed in Paris in June 1989. These will be 125 meters long, 3,200-ton fully loaded ships, similar to the French Navy’s now-building Lafay-
fr
Pakistan unabashedly fills its navy with foreign leftovers—14 large ships by latest count. Next it wants more subs (maybe nuclear), P-3Cs, and destroyers.
ette class frigates.
Saudi Arabia ordered six Sandown- class minehunters from Vosper Thor- nycroft in July 1988. The first unit, the Al Jawf (ex-HMS Invernesse) was launched on 2 August 1989 at Woolston, England. She should enter service in August 1991. Given her original Royal Navy orientation, this first unit—at least—will be a single-role ship. She will, however, have a different gun than her British sisters.
The Saudi Coast Guard received four new patrol boats from Blohm + Voss in Hamburg. These 29-meter, 30-knot, 210- ton craft carry two 20-mm. cannons. The first two, the Al Jouf and the Turaif, entered service on 15 June 1989; the final pair were delivered on 20 August 1989.
The most significant dimension of Saudi naval expansion is that it may actually include submarines. A delegation including the minister of defense and aviation visited the Netherlands in late May to discuss acquiring the Dutch Moray- type submarines.
Of broader regional interest is the continued encouragement by Saudi Arabia of a Joint Defense Council for the Gulf Cooperation Council. The signing of a Saudi-Iraqi nonagression pact in April also hints of concern over the long-term stability of the Gulf.
Oman: The fourth Province-class guided-missile patrol boat, the Mus- sandam, was handed over on 5 January 1989 and left for Omani waters on 1 May.
Kuwait: No significant naval acquisition developments were recorded in 1989.
Bahrain: Last year Bahrain, like many Gulf principalities suddenly stung by the need for another dimension to national security, talked about acquiring three minehunters. With the end of the Gulf war, however, the serious shopping ended. Bahrain’s interest in three air- cushion minehunters is an example of evanescent naval fashion.
Dubai: No significant naval developments were recorded in 1989.
United Arab Emirates: The first of two Type-62 missile corvettes on order from Liirssen in West Germany was reportedly launched during 1989. The 630- ton, 35-knot ships will carry eight Exocet antiship missiles and two Sadral sextuple launchers for Mistral point-defense SAMs.
The Indian Ocean
Pakistan: Pakistan took full advantage of a couple of Western garage sales to fill in its order of battle. Two ex-British and eight ex-U.S. Brooke (FFG-1)- and Garcia (FF-1040)-class frigates plus four modernized destroyers now give Pakistan a working combat fleet of 14 large surface ships for the mid-term period. An official navy statement on its long-term plans amplifies this picture of naval expansion: In addition to three P-3C maritime patrol aircraft ordered in 1988, it wants three more. It also would like to replace the old Gearing (DD-710)-class destroyers and pick up an additional four submarines. Even nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) are mentioned.
Of the two ex-British frigates, the former Leander-class Shamsher (ex- Diomede) was commissioned in 1988, and Zulfiquar (ex-Apollo) left Britain on 2 December 1988. They will be equipped with SA-319B Alouette-III helicopters.
Of the eight ex-U.S. frigates, the Aslat (ex-O’Callaghan [FF-1051]) was commissioned on 8 February 1989, the Badr (ex-Julius A. Furer [FFG-6]) on 31 January 1989, the Khaibar (ex-Brooke) on 8 February 1989, the Tabuk (ex-Richard L. Page [FFG-5]) on 31 March 1989, the Saif (ex-Garcia) on 31 January 1989, the Harbah (ex-Brumby [FF-1044]) on 31 March 1989, the Siqqat (ex-Koelsch [FF- 1049]) on 31 May 1989, and the Humain (ex-Talbot [FFG-4]) was transferred on 31 May 1989. The repair ship Hector (AR-7) was handed over on 20 April
- while undergoing rehabilitation at Subic Bay and was to be commissioned in Pakistan as the Maowin on 20 January
- Note that the four Brooke-class units have been given destroyer series “D” pennant numbers, while the Garcias received “F”-pennants in the frigate series. Six SH-2F LAMPS-I helicopters were ordered in May 1989 to equip the half dozen ex-U.S. frigates with fullsized helicopter hangars.
This sudden naval buildup comes in the context of an overall rise in defense spending, up 10% from 45.3 billion rupees ($2.5 billion) to 49.8 billion rupees ($2.8 billion). This is nearly 40% of the Pakistani state budget, and only highlights the continuing, embedded sense of stress in the subcontinent.
India: As India develops naturally into the preeminent Indian Ocean regional force, it makes sense to consider its strategic approach from the vantage of key arenas of strategic development.
► Indigenous programs and foreign assistance: The navy especially seeks undersea technology. It sees its SSN future in an indigenous program that has been active since 1982. Continuing reliance on Soviet equipment, especially SSNs, does not fit long-term Indian plans. India wants to bootstrap itself into a contemporary generation of SSNs, and it does not wish to depend either on a Soviet pipeline or on declining Soviet technology. The West, and especially the United States, is the benchmark of SSN quality and capability toward which India inclines. It already has a working SSN reactor mock- up on shore; and it is deliberately acquiring the ability to build submarine hulls* with the first indigenously built Indian submarine, the INS Shalki, launched on 30 September 1989 at Bombay. What ij wants next are the tools to design and equip a modem SSN—acoustic signal processing, towed arrays, and silencing technologies equal to those of the West.
The navy continues to voice an active interest in another run of Western-built conventional subs. Current plans call for terminating India’s indigenous program after completion of the second boat. It has turned hopefully to HDW and Kock- ums, but Germany and Sweden as weapon sources are both under domestic political clouds in India.
Growing Western participation is also evident in India’s new frigate program, the Project 15. This includes the use of General Electric LM-2500 gas turbines as components in the power plant, as well as design assistance and some equipment from the Netherlands.
The Khukri-class corvettes, the first of which was delivered on 23 February 1989, typify the direction of more wholly indigenous efforts. The Indians continue to rely on Soviet weapon systems, in this case the 76-mm. gun, the SA-N-4 SAM, and the SS-N-2C Styx antiship missile. The same will be true of the Project 15 frigates. Soviet military science and technology are becoming less attractive to India, which hopes to reach a Western level of capability in select areas in the next 20 years, with the LCA program symbolic of this push. The Soviets are seen as a declining force in the realm of the defense technology.
- The Soviet connection: The trend away from the Soviet influence is highlighted by India’s experience with the Soviet- loaned Charlie-I-class nuclear-powered cruise-missile submarine; the Chakra. Despite speculation, there will be no series of Soviet Victors. The Indians do not want older-generation nuclear-submarine technology; they want to be able to build their own modern boats, and they want the United States, not the Soviets, to help.
There will be no second Charlie-I-class submarine; the Indians seem to have learned everything they need from the Chakra. They will, however, build as many as eight Soviet Kilo-class conventional, diesel-powered submarines.
As of late autumn 1989, India had ordered no additional Soviet ships. The Soviets, it seems, have hiked prices as a result of their own economic crunch. The current Indian Navy Kashin-class destroyer buy will end with five units, although Soviet units might be snapped up if available.
- Blue-water programs: France’s consultancy on India’s new carrier began in December 1988, when India selected the French General Armaments Delegation’s DCN design bureau to support its own design team. The design is essentially the Charles de Gaulle scaled down by 5,000 tons to reduce draft enough for the ship to use the naval base at Bombay. Like the Royal Navy in the early 20th century, Indian ships must be built to fit the working majority of its basing network, even though bigger dimensions might be tactically desirable. The new carrier, to be complete by 1997, will be powered by four GE FM-2500 gas turbines. It was, in fact, the design problem of gas turbine exhaust uptakes interfering with hangar space needs that led the Indians originally to seek the design assistance of Ingalls Shipbuilding in the United States, which was denied them. The new ship is intended to operate 20 Sea Harriers as part of her standard air group.
Focal-ocean ASW is a pervasive problem for India. The negative slope of the ocean floor in local seas means that sonar is good only out to about three kilometers. Task groups must maintain at least 23 knots for safety. This means essentially that the old carrier, the Vikrant, is a sitting target. Nevertheless, she was fitted with a ski-jump by March 1989 and was running engineering trials with this jump in August. The Vikrant is also just big enough to support Sea King helicopters, 20 more of which the Indian Navy will receive from Britain’s Westland.
Indian carrier deployment will continue to revolve around a 12- to 18-month cycle, where one is in dockyard while only one is deployed. This pattern will not change with future carriers.
Finally, the navy will acquire more replenishment oilers to give its operational carrier battle group real ocean reach.
- Maritime surveillance: EightTu-l42M Bear-Fs ordered from the Soviets are now in service. The Bear airframe could be built in India, but this would eat into the air force production line at Bangalore, inflaming interservice tensions.
Adding to India’s evolving ocean- surveillance net are its own specialized satellites, which have dedicated naval surveillance and targeting channels.
- Coastal forces: India maintains a large coastal-defense force in addition to a strong coast guard. This seemingly anachronistic preservation of smaller naval forces, which compete with the ocean-going fleet, is a product of domestic political anxiety over the possibility of Pakistani raids on the western coast. This squandering of limited naval resources (the navy, after all, receives only 13.5% of the Indian defense budget) is reminiscent of Britain’s elaborate coastal fortification program in the 1870s: it guards against a minor threat—but one which, if successful, could topple the government. The resonant image here is of Pakistan’s raiding during the 1965 war. All of India’s missile attack boats are to be stationed on the west coast.
As a bonus, the new Soviet-built Indian Navy missile boats, the Tarantul-Is, are designed to be capable of longer- range missions against Pakistan, so as to potentially transcend the passive patrol role. Two more arrived in December
- the Ajay and the Nishak.
- Amphibious lift: Eight tank landing ships of the Magar class have been announced as India’s major amphibious lift program for the future. A bigger, amphibious transport deck assault ship, however, is to follow. Beyond formal assault shipping in the fleet, India maintains a modern sealift force of merchant ships configured for amphibious lift in time of emergency. India will achieve its corps lift goals primarily through these purpose-built sealift ships. Included in the force are six Ro/Ro vessels to carry tanks, plus special logistic-support ships and tankers.
- Base development: The big new focus of future Indian naval power will be the base near Kardar on the western coast—a $2 billion, 25-year project. Early this year the Indian government awarded a $15 million contract to a consortium of Haskoning BV, a Dutch engineering firm, and Redecom, an Australian consulting firm, to design the base.
- Regional reach: India agreed to withdraw its 25,000 troops from Sri Lanka, at that country’s request, by 31 March
- The two nations will sign a treaty of friendship. India offered to train the naval staff of the Seychelles, and its rapid response forces remain in the Maldives- In more subtle extensions of influence, India has offered arms to neighboring African states, most recently to Zambia,
Bangladesh: Its antique British frigates expiring, Bangladesh has received a Chinese Jianghu-c\ass frigate, the renamed Oswan, commissioned on 8 November 1989. A second is expected.
Sri Lanka: The Israeli-built Super Dvora-class patrol boats kept coming, and an interesting local design is undef production for a navy almost entirely fO' cused on local patrol and interdiction, h is a seven- to eight-ton craft intended to deploy from Sri Lankan deckships, 11 mothership concept reminiscent of the French torpedo-boat carrier Foudre of the late 1890s.
Dr. Vlahos is Director of the Center for the Study 0 Foreign Affairs at the U.S. Department of State.