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Chinese President Xi Xinping
In late 2020, domestic political pressures in China combined with election chaos in the United States convinced Chinese leader Xi Xinping the time was right to resolve the Taiwan problem.
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The War That Never Was?

Proceedings recently asked several frequent contributors how the next conflict might start. This essay is the first in the series.
By Admiral James A. Winnefeld, U.S. Navy (Retired), and Michael J. Morell
August 2020
Proceedings
Fiction
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The beginning of major state-on-state conflict is almost always a surprise . . . at least to one of the two sides. The China–Taiwan conflict of early 2021 was no exception. The overlapping factors that brought it about now seem so obvious in retrospect. First, the convergence of Thucydides’ three sources of conflict—fear, honor, and interest—was unprecedented at the time. On top of this, Chinese recognition of a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and leader Xi Jinping’s eagerness to solidify his re-election in 2023 made it almost inevitable.

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Admiral James A. Winnefeld, Jr.

Admiral Winnefeld served as the ninth Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. 

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Michael J. Morell

Michael Morell served as Acting Director and Deputy Director of the Central Intelligence Agency.

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