Faced with the tension between reining in the federal deficit and maintaining a global Navy, I worry that the United States is on the verge of a maritime mistake. History suggests we’ll make the wrong choice, as did the Spanish in the 17th century, the French in the 18th, and the British in the latter half of the 20th. Is the 21st century America’s turn?
The U.S. Navy is slowly becoming a garrison force because some believe it’s getting too expensive to operate around the world. This is akin to having firemen wait in the firehouse. I love firemen and all their bravery, but it’s the wrong model for our Navy.
The United States is well-served economically, diplomatically, and militarily with the Navy out and about—not as the world’s policeman, but simply positioned to respond quickly to a range of exigencies. Five contemporary trends point to the need for a global Navy:
• Global population growth, 80 percent of that within 200 miles of a coast: Not only is the world’s population growing, especially in developing countries, it’s also getting younger. Recent events in Egypt demonstrate the vortex created by suppressing a young generation full of aspirations for a stronger economy and greater freedom, as well as being connected by social media. Of the 22 Arab League nations, all touch the coast of an ocean or sea. The U.S. Navy needs to be where the world is.
• Surging demand for natural resources: Nations will defend their offshore infrastructures and must simultaneously assure free flow of resources to their shores from afar, which cross primarily by sea.
• Unabated growth of global trade by sea: More people, more demand for resources, and more trade by sea all point to more need for naval capabilities, not less, and certainly not to a navy that waits in the firehouse.
• An increasingly assertive China: Watch China’s navy and in all things maritime to gauge its assertiveness in the region.
• Strategic importance of the oceans and seas: U.S. strategic nuclear deterrence once relied on a balance between land-, air-, and sea-based nuclear weapons. Today we rely predominantly on an aging Trident submarine force, as the world witnesses the spread of nuclear weapons. Missile defenses are moving to sea as nations develop longer-range and more accurate ballistic missiles.
Then there’s piracy, with its largely economic impact. Shipping costs increase in the form of higher insurance rates, ransoms are paid, and those costs are passed onto consumers. Delivery of goods and humanitarian aid is delayed. Demand for naval forces is increasing around the globe.
But the U.S. federal deficit won’t go away easily and something’s got to give. I’m a big fan of Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates, but regarding the Navy, he’s got it wrong. In a speech last fall calling for defense spending that does more without more, Gates used a competitive framework to argue for a smaller Navy. He compared the service’s size to those of potential opponents, as well as to those of our allies. So he made it a numbers game. By comparison with others, the more we have, the less we need.
Secretary Gates did not examine what kind of Navy is necessary to ensure that our economic, diplomatic, and military interests match our global responsibilities. It would have been much better to frame the issue in terms of global power. In light of the trends outlined here, what size and shape must the U.S. Navy be to operate around the world?
Recognizing also that defense cuts are inevitable, it seems that Secretary Gates should have questioned the one-third equilibrium budget allocation among the Departments of the Navy, Army, and Air Force. Because something has to give, it’s time to consider making strategic investments in the kind of military power that is best suited to tomorrow’s demands and challenges.
I suspect it will be a long time before the United States occupies another country. If we spare the occupations and nation building, the defense budget can do more with the right kind of 21st-century military power. For that, a global Navy is one of our greatest assets.
Global power results from a global navy. Throughout history this has been the case. American sea power protects, sustains, and enriches us. Let’s avoid the maritime mistake. Without a global Navy, our national power will change in ways that, once lost, may never be recovered, at the expense of our prosperity and security.