UNITED STATES AND LATIN AMERICA
Aid for Europe.—In his message to Congress on Jan. 7 President Truman again emphasized that the European Recovery Program called for prompt action and that the initial appropriation of $6,800,000,000 would be needed early if operations were to begin by April 1. Congressional pronouncements, however, indicated that the size of the appropriation might be scaled down and that action might not be taken by the date set. In his testimony before the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee Secretary of State Marshall insisted that the figure set was a minimum and not an “asking figure” anticipating reductions, and that Congress should “either undertake to meet the requirements of the job or not undertake it at all.” He insisted further (1) that there were no conditions impinging on the sovereignty of the participating nations, and (2) that the supervising agency should be under the overall direction of the State Department, assuring unified control of foreign relations. Senator Vandenberg indicated that Congress would insist on “policing” the loan, and said that “if we could establish a system of following our dollars abroad to see that we are getting our money’s worth, half the criticism of this program would disappear.” It was generally agreed that Congress would not at once take up the four-year program of some $17,000,000,000 but would center on the sum needed for the fifteen months up to July, 1949.
Early in January France, Austria, and Italy had already signed agreements accepting the conditions attached to the emergency aid of $522,000,000 voted by Congress in December. Among other requirements, these conditions called for efficient distribution, full information on methods of distribution and use, fair prices, and all possible measures on the part of the recipient nations to build up self-sustaining economies.
Panama Bases Vacated.—Following the refusal of the Panama Assembly in December to approve the lease of fourteen defense bases in the canal area, the United States proceeded at once to evacuate forces from the Rio Hata airfield and from thirteen other bases employed during the war as a second line of defense. There might be a renewal of negotiations, but not until after the Panamanian presidential elections set for next May, in which the strongly nationalist leader Arnulfo Arias would oppose the Jiminez Government. The decision of Panama in the lease issue might also affect decisions regarding a projected expansion of trans-isthmian canal facilities, at Panama or elsewhere.
Brazil Ousts Reds.—After the earlier outlawing of the Brazilian Communist Party, the Legislature in Brazil on Jan. 7, by a vote of 181 to 74, passed a measure barring Communists from all elective offices. The act, which removed Communists from the Chamber of Deputies and from provincial elective offices, was at once put into effect.
American Military Policy.—Among the articles in the January issue of the quarterly Foreign Affairs chief military interest centers in Hanson Baldwin’s discussion, “The Myth of Security.” The myth (or myths) he treats are not all in reality myths and fallacies but rather half-truths, misleading if pushed too far. As he gives them, they are: (1) That we can attain peace by wishing for it or by a unilateral declaration for it; permanent peace, he points out, “has been the goal of generations,” and the United Nations should be supported as a step forward. (2) That there is such a thing as “absolute preparedness”-—obviously not even in totalitarian states, and much less in democracies. (3) That a strong Army and Navy will prevent war; “merely because there is no safety in flabby weakness does not make it necessary,” the writer avers, “to fly to the opposite extreme and seek safety in excessive armaments” (the adjective excessive, of course, being a good example of a question-begging epithet). (4) That disarmament means insecurity, the author’s point being that general limitation agreements are desirable and that “excessive” armaments may breed trouble. (5) That the United States will be the first area to be attacked in any future war; this, the author believes, may not be true if we maintain allies and bases overseas. (6) That invasion of the United States is now possible. “So long as we control the sea and air,” the author holds, “no large-scale physical invasion, like the Normandy invasion, is possible.” In other words, invasion is not possible so long as we have adequate (not excessive) armaments.
After the disposal of these “myths,” the article deals with the American strategic problem, applying the major strategic lessons of World War II. These lessons are, in brief, that “modern war is no longer won by big battalions but by big factories”; that the mass army “has declined steadily in importance”; that the continental United States is not only arsenal and supply base, but is now the main operating base for our armed forces; that the offensive, particularly in long-range missiles of all types, has so far outstripped defense as to radically alter strategic concepts; and finally, that modern total war calls for peacetime measures which affect the whole state. The writer closes with the query whether we can attain the desired “military efficiency without weakening our democracy.”
UNITED NATIONS
Little Assembly Adjourned.—After holding its opening sessions in the first week of January, the Interim Committee of the United Nations Assembly adjourned on Jan. 9 to meet again on Feb. 23. In the meantime its members were to consider suggestions for practical modification of the veto of the great powers, and were to have these ready for consideration by mid-March. At the first meetings of the “Little Assembly” none of the states of the Soviet bloc were represented, in accordance with their earlier announced decision to have no part in its activities. Dr. Luis Badillo Nervo of Mexico was elected chairman.
Aside from the meetings of the Little Assembly, United Nations organs and agencies for the most part marked time. A sub-committee of the Military Staff Commission reported continued failure to agree on the component elements for the proposed international military force. Most of the proposals favored about 15 divisions of troops, from 1250 to 2800 planes, two to three battleships, and four to six aircraft carriers. Of the naval categories, Russia proposed none at all, since she could not share in the provision of battleships or carriers, and yet she insisted that the contribution of the major powers should be exactly the same in each category.
Trade Parley Delays.—The trade conference of 58 nations which opened at Havana on Nov. 21 was to have ended in mid-January but was necessarily prolonged into the next month. To meet this later deadline, the reports of all of the 20 subcommittees were to be completed by Jan. 31. Major difficulties arose over conflicts between the larger trading nations and the less developed states, chiefly arising from the efforts of the latter to maintain quotas, preferences, and other restrictions to support their tottering economies. By mid-January the 800 proposed amendments to the projected international trade charter had been reduced to 400; and on about half of these, agreements had been reached in committee.
WESTERN EUROPE
France Fights Inflation—The Schuman Cabinet in France won a notable victory when in early January it pushed through the Assembly the first measures of its anti-inflation program. These included a super tax of 20 to 40 percent on higher incomes, with an alternative of investing the equivalent of the tax in 10-year, non-negotiable government bonds. As finally amended the measure was expected to yield a revenue of about 125 billion francs and ease prices by taking money out of circulation. The final vote was 300 to 268, with most of the 183 Communist and 114 Gaullist votes in the Chamber opposed. On Jan. 13 Edouard Herriot was re-elected President of the Assembly. Though successful in his first moves toward a more stable economy, Premier Schuman faced the prospect of renewed Communist agitation and increased opposition from the Gaullist Rally of the People, now the most powerful party in France.
Stronger Bizonia—At a meeting on Jan. 8 the Presidents of the eight states or laender of western Germany accepted from the American and British military authorities proposals for building up a much stronger bizonal economic administration. Though its decisions would always be subject to review by the occupation authorities, “Bizonia” would have an Executive chosen by the Council; a six-man Cabinet handling economics and finance, transport and commerce, food and agriculture, and civil service; a two-house legislature composed of the present Council doubled to 104 members and an upper house with two representatives from each state; a judiciary and a central bank. Laws and orders issued by this central administration would be binding on the individual states. The new regime was not called a government, since the door would be left open for unification with eastern Germany, but the changes would represent a long step toward autonomous rule. A merger with the French zone would call for considerable delay and further negotiation, in view of the lower living standards in the French area, the higher costs of occupation after the incorporation of the Saar Basin with metropolitan France, and the deficit in the zone estimated for 1948 at about $10,000,000 a month.
Italy’s New Constitution.—At the close of December, by a vote of 453 to 62, the Italian Assembly approved the new Constitution as the basic document for the government of the Italian Republic. The Constitution went into effect on Jan. 1, Provisional President Enrico de Nicola becoming the first Chief Executive of the new republican state. The Constitution abolishes the monarchy forever and sets up a republic of an advanced type, with recognition of property rights but under strict limitations, and with special privileges for labor. Incorporated in the document are the Lateran Agreements of 1929 stabilizing the relations of state and church. A supreme court is set up to pass on the constitutionality of laws and to try inpeachments. The bicameral legislature will consist of a popularly elected Chamber and a smaller, more permanent Senate. Chief executive power will rest with the Premier and Cabinet, subject to parliamentary control.
Irish Elections.—The Irish Dail or Parliament was dissolved on Jan. 12 and a new general election was set for Feb. 4. The dissolution followed the loss by the De Valera Government of two out of three by- elections held last autumn. It was indicated that in the coming contest the opposition groups, including Sean MacBride’s new Republican party, would make an all-out fight to end Premier De Valera’s long control of the Irish Government, uninterrupted since 1932.
EASTERN EUROPE
Rumanian King Ousted.—From Bucharest on Dec. 29 came a sudden announcement of the forced abdication of King Michael of Rumania and the proclamation of a Communist-dominated “People’s Republic.” Thus ended the last vestige of monarchy among the eight states of eastern Europe composing the Soviet bloc. Michael, aged 26, occupied the Rumanian throne as a boy from 1927 to 1930, and again after 1940 when his father, King Carol, was finally forced out. With his mother, Queen Helen, Michael took refuge in Switzerland. The presidency of the new republic was vested in a feeble five-man Presidium, with the real power in the hands of Premier Petru Graza as head of the “Fatherland Front” Government. Michael’s request, after his return from Princess Elizabeth’s wedding in London, for approval of his proposed marriage to Princess Anne of Bourbon- Parma was apparently made an occasion for ending his rule.
Yugoslavs Demand Frozen Gold.— In early January Marshal Tito’s Yugoslav Government made formal demand for the release of some $70,000,000 in gold and other frozen assets in the United States. The note stated that further delay in their release would be regarded as an effort to hinder Yugoslavia’s economic reconstruction. The note added that the Yugoslav Government was prepared to make compensation to American nationals for properties nationalized, the claims reported as now reduced to about $20,000,000, but declined to concede that the release of assets should in any way be made contingent on the settlement of other issues.
Czechs Fear Treaties.—Czech moderate groups have repeatedly expressed regret that the Czechoslovak Government, despite its expressed desire, was forced to drop participation in the Marshall Plan. In January further fears were voiced in Prague lest the new treaty links being forged among the Soviet satellite states might bind the Czechs, not only to join against a resurgent Germany but to support the southern Balkan states in Trieste, in Greece, and in other areas of conflict with the western powers where Czechoslovakia has no wish to be drawn in. It was stated on Jan. 15 that the secrecy surrounding the negotiation of a new Czechoslovak-Bulgarian treaty was due to a demand that the Czechs pledge themselves to join in any conflict in which Bulgaria might become involved.
Greek War on Communists.—The civil conflict in Greece was sharpened following the proclamation, on Dec. 24, of a Communist “Free Government” along the northern Greek frontier. The new set-up was headed by the Guerrilla leader Markos (Vafiades) as “General of the Democratic Fighting Forces” and Minister of War, with seven other little-known “cabinet ministers.” There followed a tough struggle, finally defeated, to capture the mountain town of Konitza as a possible capital or center for the new regime. The United States, supported by Britain, gave oral warning to Bulgaria and Yugoslavia that recognition of the Markos junta would be “clearly contrary to the principles of the United Nations charter” and in “open disregard of the recent recommendations of the United Nations Assembly.” Though there was no immediate recognition, it was obvious enough that the Guerrillas were using Albanian territory as bases and drawing plenty of aid in men and supplies from beyond the Greek borders. After an investigation in early January, the U. N. Commission definitely reported “aid in the form of logistical support” from Albania. To strengthen the Greek national forces, an additional $15,000,000 was transferred to military uses from the American aid fund and plans were completed to raise the Army’s strength to 130,000, together with 50,000 militia, and with increased employment of U. S. military advisers.
Reinforcements in the Mediterranean.—Some diplomatic stir was created by the U. S. Navy Department’s routine announcement in early January that about 1,000 Second Division Marines were to sail from Morehead City, N. C., to join the detachments aboard the carrier Midway and the three cruisers in the Mediterranean, bringing these ships up to their “normal overall complements.” It was reported that Marines might be used to protect the U. S. Consulate in Jerusalem, and in World Report (Jan. 16) the strengthening of naval forces, together with the maneuvers in the Ionian Sea, was described as “a warning to Yugoslavia and Bulgaria,” and a measure “to support American policy” in that area. With the additional Marines, plus naval landing parties, it was estimated that the Fleet could “put ashore a striking force of 3,000 to 4,000 men.” In January it was also made public that the Turkish Navy was to be strengthened by 15 former U. S. Naval vessels, including 4 fleet submarines, 8 mine-sweepers, a tanker, repair vessel, and net-layer. The Mellaha air base near Tripoli in Libya, closed down last year, was to be reopened for aid in service of United States activities in the Middle East. British troops, upon their withdrawal from Palestine, were to be stationed in Cyprus.
MIDDLE EAST
New Anglo-Iraq Treaty—In a new 20- year treaty between Britain and Iraq, signed at Portsmouth, England, on Jan. 15, but with ratification uncertain, Iraq attains complete territorial sovereignty, but with close military ties and guarantees between the two nations, including protection of Iraq by Britain and supply of arms. The air bases at Habbaniya near Bagdad and Shaibah near Basra, formerly owned by Britain, become the property of Iran but remain open to British use until all peace treaties with former enemy countries go into effect. Iraquian railways, rivers, bases, and territories are pledged to British use if either nation is involved in war or a menace of hostilities.
Iran’s New Premier.—In late December Dr. Ibrahim Hakimi, the Shah’s physician, aged 78, was appointed Premier of Iran to succeed Ahmed Ghavam, who had been forced out of office earlier in the month. By a liberal and popular trend in his domestic policies, Ghavam had apparently aroused opposition among important conservative political groups. Hakimi, with long past experience as premier and in other ministerial posts, was described as strongly pro-British and anti-Soviet in policy, and responsible for the request to the Supreme Council in 1945 that all foreign troops be removed from Iranian territory. The United States has supported Iran by a $25,000,000 credit for purchase of war supplies, by agreement to provide a military mission, and by a promise last summer that our government would be deeply concerned in any threat to Iran’s sovereignty. Observers have suggested that northern Iran may be the next location for renewed Soviet pressure.
Strife in Palestine.—British authorities in Palestine made it clear that the evacuation of British forces from Palestine would begin in February and that if possible the British would terminate their mandate responsibilities earlier than mid-May. This would depend on the prospects of turning over control to the U. N. Palestine Commission, which had been expected to arrive in Jerusalem in January but at last reports was still engaged in long-range study at Lake Success. The five-nation commission had elected Karel Lisicky of Czechoslovakia as chairman; had requested the British, the Arab Higher Committee, and the Jewish Agency to name representatives for consultation; and had stated to the Security Council the imperative need of a United Nations military force in the area. In fact the Moslem League had clearly indicated that Arab forces intended to “occupy all Palestine” as soon as the British withdrew. Throughout January there were daily reports of clashes in Palestine which before the end of the month had brought the losses on both sides close to 1,000. On Jan. 9 the United States placed an embargo on all further delivery of surplus explosives following the seizure in New Jersey of 69 tons of cyclamite destined for shipment to the Jews in Palestine. A countercharge that Britain had supplied the Arab states was met by a British statement that such provision of arms to the Middle East was in fulfilment of “contractual obligations.”
PACIFIC AND FAR EAST
Peace Moves for India.—In January the United Nations Security Council took up the conflict in the border state of Kashmir between the Indian Union and Pakistan. The matter had been brought before the Council by the Union’s charges that tribal invaders of Kashmir were being systematically armed and supported by the Moslem government. With a population of about 4,000,000, three- fourths Moslem, Kashmir was taken over by the Union when the Maharajah called for protection against the incursions of Moslem tribesmen from the north. An emergency administration was set up under Sheik Abdullah, a Moslem but an ardent supporter of the Hindu Congress party. Before the Council, Pakistan raised countercharges against the union of racial and religious warfare and systematic aggression. Both the Indian nations finally agreed to accept the Council’s proposal for submission of their disputes to a three-member mediation and investigation board, similar to that operating in Indonesia. In the meantime a fast started by Mohandas Gandhi was ended after three days on promises of both Hindu and Moslem leaders to curb communal warfare.
Burma Becomes Independent.—In accordance with treaty agreements with Britain, Burma on Jan. 4 formally proclaimed her independence, hoisting the new red and blue flag with a large white star to represent the union and five smaller stars for the five chief racial groups. The first President and Premier had already been chosen and the new state was ready to apply for membership in the United Nations. The independence treaty permits Britain to maintain a military mission in Burma, provides for transfer to Burma of 37 small naval vessels, and cancels a debt to Britain of $60,000,000.
U. N. Commission in Korea.—The United Nations Commission to aid in setting up an independent government in Korea reached Seoul in the second week of January. One of its first acts, under its instructions to travel, observe, and consult throughout the country, was to apply for permission to enter the Russian zone and establish contacts with Soviet authorities. Prospects were doubtful, in view of the bitter attacks on the commission made by the communist “Democratic People’s Front,” which spoke of all the members of the Commission (except the absent Ukrainian representative) as “American choices” and the commission’s proposed assistance as an “foreign interference.” President Chiang Kai-shek, the old State Council, and other organs of the pre-constitution era continued in control, it was announced at Nanking that the new constitution was to be considered in effect since Dec. 25. The first meeting of the new National Assembly, however, was postponed until March 29, and the election of the Legislative and Control Yuans was held in the fourth week of January. Results of the November elections were still incomplete, but it was known that 150 million out of 270 million voters had participated and that even more than the desired number of Kuomintang party candidates had been elected.
During January the American State Department was still seeking practical methods to make aid for China effective. On this point, Owen Lattimore, former political adviser in China and head of the Page School of International Relations at Johns Hopkins, declared that Chiang’s government “cannot be trusted to bring order out of the present chaos,” that the arms we give are lost or stolen, and the money we loan “goes into the private bank account of Chinese officials.”
Renewed Truce in Java.—From Batavia on Jan. 17 came news that the United Nations Good Offices Committee had secured approval of a new military truce by both the Dutch authorities and the Indonesian Republic. It was said to give the Dutch at least temporary control of most of the more productive oil and rubber areas. A demilitarized zone was to be established along the “Van Mook line” laid down by the Dutch last August. Within six months after negotiation of a final political agreement, plebiscites were to be held in Java, Sumatra, and Madoera to decide whether the inhabitants wish to join the Republic or form a separate state in the projected Indonesian Union. A number of other political principles were agreed upon as a basis for future discussions.