Axis Developments
Tri-Power Pact.—After a series of conferences which had led foreign correspondents to expect an accord with Spain, the Axis Foreign Ministers met at Berlin on September 27, and in the presence of Chancellor Hitler signed and published a mutual support pact with Japan. Very evidently this was intended primarily as a threat to deter the United States from more open support for China and Britain. Less certain was the status of the Soviet Republic in the face of this new alignment of the aggressor powers. After a preamble on the aims of these powers to create a beneficent “new order of things” in Greater East Asia” and Europe, the text of the treaty read:
Article I: Japan recognizes and respects the leadership of Germany and Italy in the establishment of a new order in Europe.
Article II: Germany and Italy recognize and respect the leadership of Japan in the establishment of a new order in Greater East Asia.
Article III: Germany, Italy, and Japan agree to co-operate in their efforts on aforesaid lines. hey further undertake to assist one another with all political, economic, and military means when one of the three contracting powers is attacked by a power at present not involved in the European war or the Chinese-Japanese conflict.
Article IV: With the view to implementing the Present pact, joint technical commissions, members of which are to be appointed by the respective governments of Germany, Italy and Japan, will meet without delay.
Article V: Germany, Italy, and Japan affirm that the aforesaid terms do not in any way affect the political status which exists at present between each of the three contracting parties and Soviet Russia.
Article VI: The present pact … shall remain in force ten years … The high contracting parties shall at the request of any of them enter into negotiations for its renewal.
In Italy the pact came as a surprise but was hailed as an effective warning which would leave Japan free to settle with China and the Axis to complete the disruption of the British Empire. The Greater East Asia of the treaty was not officially defined but was described in the Japanese press as extending on its western land side from Bering Straits to the Arabian Sea. There was a question as to how far American economic and military support might be extended without constituting “attack” in the sense of the treaty. Both the Italian and the Japanese press declared that in the event of an Anglo-American agreement for joint use of East Pacific naval bases, Japan would at once move against Singapore. In Washington, Secretary Hull remarked that the treaty was not unexpected, that it merely made clear a relationship which had long existed in effect and which had been taken into account in determining American foreign policy. According to Time, unofficial department comment declared the pact a blunder in that it “ended American isolation, vindicated the policy of all aid to Britain short of war, and made unnecessary six months of State Department ‘education’ of public opinion on the immensity of the menace. ...”
Status of Russia.—According to the tripartite pact, relations between the Soviet Republic and the three contracting parties were in no way affected. Moreover, since Japan’s prospects for expansion southward would not challenge Russia, and since the Axis could profit most by an embroilment of Japan with England and America, it became the first task of Axis diplomacy to foster continued Russian neutrality and if possible a Soviet-Japanese rapprochement. What the Soviets stood to gain or lose in the long run was another matter, though one that Moscow might well bear in mind. Bids for Russian support were undoubtedly considered in the October meeting of Hitler and Mussolini at the Brenner Pass. The Italian press suddenly discovered that Rome had been Moscow’s best friend. The German agent Max Stahmer, chief engineer of the tripower pact at Tokyo, was now reported as a go-between in Soviet-Japanese negotiations at Moscow. Yet whatever the immediate promises, the Soviet Government would see ultimate danger both in Japanese expansion in China and extension of Axis power in the Balkans, and would put the price high for continued friendship with the old league of anti-Comintern powers.
Meeting of Dictators.—Matters of world import occupied Chancellor Hitler and Premier Mussolini in their second wartime conference at the Brenner Pass on October 4, but since surprise is fundamental in Axis strategy, the communique at the end gave no hint of decisions reached. Italian press dispatches declared the purpose was to “close and perfect the results of the first phase of the war, plan the second phase, and prevent if possible a third phase of world conflagration.” Balkan and Russian problems demanded attention, and since Marshal Wilhelm Keitel was called into the conference, the dictators must have considered new lines of offensive action in a war unexpectedly prolonged by stubborn British resistance.
Spain’s Role With the Axis.—The visits to Rome and Berlin made in September by General Franco’s brother-in-law, Ramon Serrano Suner, and his conferences there with Axis leaders, ended rather unexpectedly with semiofficial statements in early October that, while Spain was tied firmly to the Axis, she would not for the present be called on for armed support. The decision was attributed chiefly to Spain’s economic and military exhaustion and her complete subjection to British blockade. In the discussions there were no doubt arrangements as to Spain’s share of territorial spoils, including French Morocco and western Algeria, in the event of German-Italian victory, but the possibility of a joint Axis-Spanish attack on Gibraltar appeared less immediate.
Quisling Head in Norway.—Nazi soft handling of Norway was ended in September by an announcement from the German Commissioner, Josef Terboren, that the Norwegian Parliament was abolished, King Haakon definitely deposed, political parties banned, and Norwegian participation in government turned over to proNazi Vidkun Quisling at the head of a German-named council of 15 members. The German military occupation was legalized, and Germany was to continue in control of all Norwegian foreign affairs. The strong Norwegian trades unions, including one-tenth of the population, disbanded as an alternative to reorganization on Nazi lines. The Norwegian attitude toward Major Quisling was sufficiently indicated by the fact that his leadership was rejected in the Parliament by all but a single vote.
Rumania Nazified.—On October 8 a German expeditionary force started moving into Rumania, the stated purpose being to instruct the Rumanian Army in Nazi methods of warfare, and, along with Rumanian troops, to put Rumanian oil fields and industrial areas under military protection. Rumania’s naval and air base and submarine plant on the Black Sea were to be expanded. Earlier than this General Antonescu had completed his totalitarian reorganization of the Rumanian Government, with a new cabinet in which the Iron Guard leader, Horia Sima, was made Vice Premier and other Iron Guard members assumed prominent posts. The Iron Guard, with Antonescu at the head, became the sole political party, and government pronouncements accepted Rumania’s future role as oil and agricultural purveyor to the Reich. British oil engineers were arrested on charges of plans for sabotage of oil plants, and two British oil officials were kidnapped apparently by members of the Iron Guard.
While Rumania thus fell completely into the German orbit, Axis influence was also strong in Bulgaria, which felt it had the dictators to thank for recovery of the Southern Dobruja. There was talk of joining Bulgaria, Hungary, and mutilated Rumania in a new bloc of Axis satellite states. Control of navigation in the Danube, long under an international Danubian commission, was taken over in September by Germany, with a German director, Dr. Georg Martius, at the head of a new commission representing Italy, Hungary, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, and Rumania.
British Defense
British Cabinet Changes.—On October 3 former Premier Neville Chamberlain was forced by increasing ill health to give up his cabinet post as Lord President of the Council, and his resignation facilitated a much-desired further reorganization of the Churchill government. The chief change was the increase of the inner “War Cabinet” to eight members by the inclusion of Sir John Anderson, shifted from Home Secretary to Chamberlain’s post, of Chancellor of the Exchequer Sir Kingsley Wood, and of Minister of Labor Ernest Bevin, the latter recognized as the dominant power in the Labor party. But, according to H. G. Wells, now visiting in the United States, England is in urgent need of a still further cabinet purge which will clean out the last elements who fear radicalism worse than Hitler, and who might still be inclined toward a compromise peace.
Failure at Dakar.—The decision of the British on September 25 to abandon the attempt to take the French West African port of Dakar marked the end of what was generally recognized as a series of politico-military errors. The affair began with the news on September 11 that the British had allowed the French cruisers George Leygues, Montcalm, and Gloire, with three destroyers, to pass unharmed through Gibraltar en route to French possessions on the African coast. Three days later British naval forces stopped the French ships as they were attempting to reach the rebellious colonies in Equatorial Africa and drove them back to Dakar, fortified port of Vichy-controlled Senegal. On September 23-25 a strong British naval force, with 6 transports and some 7,000 free French troops under General de Gaulle, arrived at Dakar, made three futile attempts at landing, sent in an ultimatum and exchanged fire with forts and vessels in the harbor. The subsequent British communique declared that General de Gaulle had been misled in supposing that Dakar would surrender after a show of force, that his flag of truce had been fired on, that the British bombardment followed only after an attack from the shore, and that abandonment was decided upon when it became clear that the capture would require a major operation and civil warfare between the Vichy and de Gaulle troops. The failure left under Axis control a valuable naval and air base, to which it was reported the Germans had already sent some 300 technicians and advisers, and which is located only 1,700 miles from the South American coast.
The War in Egypt.—Despite the Italian invasion of Egyptian territory in September, a declaration of war on Italy by the Egyptian Government was not forthcoming, though four Saadist (Nationalist) members of the cabinet resigned on September 21 as a protest against leaving wholly to Britain the defense of Egyptian soil. As at least a partial war move, Egypt extended the state of siege, which was declared at the opening of the war, to a state of martial law, and undertook to round up some of the 60,000 Italian residents and potential fifth columnists.
United States and Latin America
Mexican Revolt Doused.—Danger of postelection revolt in Mexico was largely removed by vigorous government military moves against disturbances in the northern area, and more effectively by President-elect Avila Camacho’s adoption of most of the moderate policies of his Almazanista opposition. General Camacho declared that he was a good Catholic, that Communists would have no hand in his government, and that his administration would give adequate guarantees to both Mexican and foreign investors. To back up this rightward swing, the Communist leader Vicente Toledano was ousted by a government pressure from control of the Confederation of Mexican Labor, which supported Camacho’s candidacy. In an interview on October 5 the President-elect announced that before his inauguration on December 1 he would make an unofficial visit to Washington, where he would no doubt have opportunity to confer on the proposed United States-Mexican defense committee and on other problems involving the two neighbors.
Uruguay Prosecutes Nazis.—After dropping its fifth-column investigation for nearly three months, the Uruguayan Administration at the end of September again arrested the Nazi leader Arnulf Fuhrmann and 7 followers, on charges of a plot to seize the country and also to attempt an invasion of Patagonia. Fuhrer Fuhrmann admitted the plots, but insisted they were not proposed seriously. The Government about-face in the prosecutions was attributed to the results of the Havana Conference, which was regarded as giving Uruguay united American support, and also as making further investigations a matter of duty. Further, the British-American naval base deal was regarded as definitely committing the United States to support against possible German pressure from overseas.
Latin-American Naval Bases.—When the naval base deal with England was announced, Secretary of State Hull made it clear that these bases would be available not only for the United States but for any American nation in concerted action against overseas aggression. In line with this policy and the agreements at Havana, it is well understood that the United States has made satisfactory progress in negotiations for joint use of Latin-American ports and bases, in both the Atlantic and Pacific, for united hemisphere defense. The policy of joint use may in practice mean use chiefly by forces of the United States as the best equipped American nation, but it serves to remove the old objections to the extension of such privileges. Availability of bases on the Brazilian coast, in particular, would be invaluable in the event of aggression against South America from Africa or Southwestern Europe.
Pertinent in this connection was the bill introduced by Senator King in the U. S. Senate on September 30, proposing negotiations for use of British island bases in the Pacific, along with a scaling down of the British war debt and suspension of the credit restrictions of the Johnson Act and Neutrality law, as applied to the United Kingdom.
Dominican Customs Control Ended. —By an agreement signed September 24 the United States ended its control of Dominican customs, a supervision begun in 1905 and continued by another agreement in 1924. By the new agreement this supervision is ended, but provision is made that Dominican revenues must be placed in a bank of deposit acceptable to the two countries, and that no disbursements to the Dominican government shall be made until interest and amortization payments have been made on outstanding bonds, which thus constitute an irrevocable first hen on the revenues.
Far East
Japan in Indo-China.—After a month of high pressure negotiations with the hapless Vichy Government, Japan in the last week of September secured an agreement which permitted the establishment of three Japanese air bases in northern Indo-China and the garrisoning of these by some 6,000 or 7,000 Japanese troops. According to Vichy, the garrisons were not to be so large as to give the appearance of a military occupation. Consummation of the agreement was accompanied by a massing of Japanese naval and military forces at Haiphong, an air raid on the port, and an invasion of Japanese troops across the China frontier which involved considerable fighting with the French and ended with the capture of the important rail base at Langson. How extensive and how permanent the Japanese hold on the French territory might be, remained to be determined by world events. In the Axis press it was hailed as affording an excellent base for operations against Singapore. While Japan entered Indo-China from the coast, Thailand started agitation on the western frontier, and the Chinese Nationalists threatened counter-invasion from the north.
Eastern Situation Critical—Strained relations with Japan during early October were clearly indicated by U. S. State Department warnings to Americans to leave Asiatic ports, by checks on grain exports to Japanese controlled areas in China, and by the increased complements for American naval forces in the Pacific. Premier Churchill, after conferences with the United States, announced the full reopening of the Burma Road on October 17, despite threats in the Japanese and Axis press that increased aid for China might mean war. The British Government was also reported as offering the Soviet Republic a trade deal for rubber and machinery, provided the Russians would keep up their shipments of war materials to Chungking.
In further support of the Chinese nationalists, the United States announced in September an additional loan of $25,000,000, to be liquidated by purchases of Chinese tungsten for American war stocks. The President also on September 26 increased restrictions on raw metal exports by declaring an embargo on all types of scrap steel and scrap iron, except to Western Hemisphere countries and to Great Britain. As regards Japan, the new restrictions were regarded as overlong delayed, since imports of 3,000,000 tons of scrap in 1939 and 800,000 tons up to September of 1940 have enabled Japan to build up a considerable reserve. The embargo did not affect finished steel, but it was held certain that license and credit difficulties would end further Japanese purchases.