THE WAR IN CHINA
PANAY SETTLEMENT.-The sinking by Japanese naval aircraft of the U. S. gunboat Panay and three American oil tankers in the Yangtze River on December 12 brought about two weeks of sharp diplomatic tension between the United States and Japan. Finally on December 25 the American government accepted as "responsive" to its request the Japanese note of the day before which apologized for the attack, promised full reparation, and specified measures that would be taken to avoid further injury to American lives, property, and interests. The Japanese note stated that the commander of the flying squadron had been removed from his post and that "all others responsible had been duly dealt with according to law." The naval aircraft commander was Rear Admiral Mitsunami, one of the junior flag officers; no admission was made of the responsibility of army officers, notably Colonel Hashimoto, one of the younger army radicals, who according to news reports issued orders which led to the attack and shared responsibility for machine gun firing on the Panay from army launches. The American government stated in its note of December 25 that with regard to the origin, causes, and circumstances of the incident it would rely on the findings of its own naval court of inquiry. In British official circles some regret was expressed that the United States had closed the affair without further consultation with England, in view of the fact that the British had still to reach a settlement with the Japanese over attacks on British shipping and H. M. S. Ladybird on the same date.
Summarizing briefly the Panay attack and subsequent correspondence, the gunboat together with three Socony tankers was sunk by naval aircraft bombing between 1:50 and 3:54 P.M., on December 12. The attack resulted in fatal injury to three of the Panay's crew, the captain of one of the tankers, and an Italian correspondent aboard the Panay, and in serious injury to many of the officers and crews of the Panay and the convoy. On the day following the American government made representations through its Ambassador at Tokyo, with a request from the President that these should be communicated directly to the Emperor, and on December 14 a formal protest was lodged calling attention to the flagrant circumstances of the Panay attack and the frequent previous injuries to American rights and interests. Even before this protest, however, the Japanese had sent a note of apology with promise of reparations and pledges for the future. These were repeated in greater detail in the note of December 24. The measures of future prevention were stated in this note as follows:
As regards the guarantee for the future, I wish to inform Your Excellency that the Japanese Navy issued without delay strict orders to "exercise the greatest caution in every area where warships and other vessels of America or any other third power are present, in order to avoid a recurrence of a similar mistake, even at the sacrifice of a strategic advantage in attacking the Chinese troops."
Furthermore, rigid orders have been issued to the military, naval, and Foreign Office authorities to pay, in the light of the present untoward incident, greater attention than hitherto to observance of the instructions that have been repeatedly given against infringement of, or unwarranted interference with, the rights and interests of the United States and other third powers.
And the Japanese government are studying carefully every possible means of achieving more effectively the above stated aims, while they have already taken steps to ascertain, in still closer contact with American authorities in China, the whereabouts of American interests and nationals, and to improve the means of communicating intelligence there of speedily and effectively to the authorities on the spot.
NEW CHINA SET-UP.-- During December Japan set about the establishment of a provisional or puppet Chinese government at Peiping, or Peking as it is once more to be called, with prospects that the authority of this government might be extended over all the occupied provinces. The naval blockade was extended to Tsingtao and military forces proceeded to the conquest of the rich province of Shantung. At Shanghai there were conflicts over the exercise of Japanese military authority within the foreign concessions, and grave fears arose regarding the future of foreign interests in China and the security of China's foreign debt, should the customs revenues pledged to its service come more fully under Japanese control. It was reported that Japan's peace terms had been communicated through the German Ambassador to China, and included indemnities, establishment of demilitarized zones, Chinese adherence to a pact against Communism, and a larger Japanese share in the control of Chinese customs and in the development of Chinese natural resources, transport, and aviation.
DEMOCRATIC DIPLOMACY.-- lt is not surprising that in the present world difficulties many strong advocates of disarmament are criticizing the democratic powers for not taking a firmer stand against treaty violations and aggression. Notable among these is Mr. Norman Angell, who, writing on "The Reign of Lawlessness" in the December Forum, condemns British diplomacy for failure to use force "for the one function which force can usefully perform in organized society --the function of deterrence, prevention, of ensuring defense without war."
An even sharper arraignment of the democratic nations appears in "Peace by Surrender" by Frederick L. Schuman, Professor of Political Science at Williams College, in the January issue of Events. The article likens the situation today to the attacks of barbarians on the Roman Empire 1,500 years ago, and continues:
A weird alliance of pacifists, fascist sympathizers, isolationists, and miscellaneous advocates of neutrality, watchful waiting, or masterly inactivity, prevents the democratic powers from making the slightest move toward effective restraint of lawless violence .... The soul sickness of western culture manifests itself in the fascist states in anti-rationalism and homicidal frenzy. In the democracies it manifests itself in paralysis. When madmen and paralytics strive for mastery the madmen win.
The article goes on to recount the feeble moves of the democratic nations in Spain, in Central Europe, and in the Far East, and ends with the statement that
Resistance may mean immediate war, or the indefinite postponement of war through the effective checkmating of the fascist powers. Further surrender will mean certain war later.
The author expects further surrender.
EFFECTS OF BOYCOTT.-Writing on "The Possible Effects of a Boycott of Japanese Goods" in the December Amerasia, Mr. Nathan M. Becker makes a study of the Japanese goods that might be affected by such a boycott, presumably unofficial and limited to certain nations. He estimates that a boycott, even though not more than 10 or 12 per cent effective, would have a most serious effect on Japanese economics and purchasing power abroad. In the same magazine reference is made to a survey taken in October by 600 canvassers for the American Institute of Public Opinion. The sympathies of those interviewed were 59 per cent for China, 1 per cent for Japan, and 40 per cent neutral. Those willing to back their sympathy for China by a boycott of Japanese goods constituted 47 per cent of the total. There is also cited a proposal made in an American radio speech by Herbert Morrison, President of the London County Council, who suggested that “the Powers" might stop the export of oil to Japan and recompense the oil companies for their loss of trade. He pointed out that about 75 per cent of Japan's oil imports comes from the United States, and 17 per cent from the British and Dutch East Indies.
BRITISH COMMONWEALTH OF NATIONS
BRITAIN FIGHTS PROPAGANDA.-In late December the British government made another protest to Italy against the flood of anti-British propaganda sent out from the Bari wireless station, and at the same time it was announced that a British broadcasting company would begin in the new year a series of programs in Arabic, Spanish, and Portuguese as a means of combating the news spread from Italian sources. In Palestine, where the radio attacks have apparently been particularly directed, British measures to repress violence gave some promise of effective results. British troops and aircraft supported native police forces in vigorous attacks on rebel bands engaged in terroristic activities, allegedly under regular pay from foreign powers.
NEW IRISH CONSTITUTION.-On December 28 Ireland's new Constitution went into effect, practically ending all ties with the British Commonwealth of Nations, and providing a new system of government for the 3,000,000 people in the 26 counties of southern Ireland. Although the Constitution assumes the ultimate unification of all Ireland, there will presumably be no immediate effort to bring in the 6 counties of Ulster, which remain in the United Kingdom under British protection. In the first presidential elections, which may be delayed for six months or more, Vice President Sean O'Kelly and Mayor Alfred Byrne of Dublin are likely to be the chief contestants. President de Valera has chosen the role of Prime Minister in the new government.
As a matter of fact the new Constitution makes little change in Anglo-Irish relations, which were for the most part broken by the Treaty of 1921. Thereafter Cosgrave abolished legal appeal to the British Privy Council, and De Valera did away with the office of Governor General and the Oath of Allegiance as the last symbols of British control.
CENTRAL EUROPE AND ITALY
FRANCE SOUNDS EASTERN ALLIES. -- The first three weeks of December were spent by Foreign Minister Delbos of France in a tour of Central Europe which included Poland, Rumania, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia. Perhaps the most significant feature of the visits was his warm reception by the crowds at Belgrade, the Yugoslav capital, indicating that despite the pro-Italian leanings of the Stoyadinovich Ministry popular sentiment still strongly supports the French alliance. One of M. Delbos' chief aims, according to reports, was to sound out the Little Entente states in preparation for another Anglo-French effort to bring Germany into a general European settlement. What he got was a "manifesto of confidence," tempered by insistence that the smaller states be considered as more than mere appendages in the work of reconstruction. For economic and other reasons, several of the Central European governments have shown a readiness to come to an understanding with the dictatorships on their own hook, a method which Germany and Italy would much prefer. M. Delbos' reception in Poland and also in Rumania was made warmer by prospects of French loans for rearmament, and at Belgrade and Prague by arrangements for new trade agreements favorable to the smaller states. Subsequently, however, it was reported that, in view of their uncertain attitude, France had threatened to cut off munitions from both Rumania and Yugoslavia.
ITALY QUITS LEAGUE.-After a brief meeting of the Fascist Grand Council Premier Mussolini on December 11 announced to cheering crowds the "irrevocable decision" of Italy to quit the League of Nations, withdrawing, as he said, "from the tottering temple where they are not working for peace but preparing for war." At the same time a German government pronouncement declared that the Geneva system was not only futile but pernicious, and that Germany's return would never again be considered. After this the general belief was that, some twenty years after its conception, the League's usefulness was at an end, though at Geneva the opinion was still expressed that reforms could be brought about which would permit its continuation on broader and more effective lines.
While breaking her League ties, which were already practically severed by the application of sanctions in the Ethiopian War, Italy in December strengthened her economic relations abroad by a temporary commercial arrangement with the United States providing for increased trade, and also by an agreement for increased exchange of goods with Japan.
SOVIET ELECTIONS.-Aside from the continued elimination of suspected enemies of the Stalin regime, the most widely heralded event in Russia during December was the first general election, held on December 12. More than 90,000,000 votes were cast, or about 96 per cent of the total number eligible, and of these nearly 89,000,000 were in favor of the 1,143 government candidates. The elections were for the two houses of Parliament created by the new Constitution-the Council of the Union and the Council of Nationalities. Since the government candidates were the only ones whose names appeared on the ballots, disapproval could be registered only by striking out the listed names. Of the 1,143 candidates, 855 were enrolled members of the Communist party, and 184 were women.
RUMANIA TURNS AUTHORITARIAN. -- The Rumanian parliamentary elections held December 20 resulted in a defeat for the parties supporting the Tatarescu Cabinet, which shortly afterward resigned. To secure a continuation of his present policies King Carol then took the situation into his own hands and appointed a new Cabinet headed by the pro-German and anti-Semitic leader Octavian Goya, whose National Christian party received less than · 10 per cent of the popular vote. Following its assumption of office the new Ministry placed party military forces in each of the 61 Rumanian military districts, with the apparent purpose of voiding the election and calling another election which could be better controlled, or else carrying on without a parliament. Other of its first acts were to appoint a Minister of Propaganda, and to issue a decree prohibiting Jewish ownership of land.
UNITED STATES AND LATIN AMERICA
PROPOSED LUDLOW AMENDMENT. -- In December, 218 members of the U. S. House of Representatives signed a petition which would take the Ludlow War Referendum Amendment out of the Judiciary Committee and bring it to a vote early in January in the regular session. In its original phrasing, the amendment provides that the United States can declare war only after this course is approved by a majority vote in a popular referendum, except that Congress would retain the power in case of an invasion of the United States or its territorial possessions. Though there appeared little possibility of approval of the amendment by the necessary two-thirds majority of Congress, or of its even being put to a vote, the action of the House members aroused a strong reaction outside Congress. Secretary of State Hull was unable to see either "the wisdom or the practicality" of the proposal. Former Secretary of State Stimson declared in a letter to the New York Times that it would destroy the present system of national defense and make any defensive system much less effective if not impossible. Governor Alfred M. Landon also wrote to the President supporting his foreign policy and deploring the fact that members of Congress "by their action create the impression on foreign nations that they do not trust your administration of foreign affairs."
In general, despite the support for an isolationist policy indicated by the advocates of the Ludlow Amendment, observers believe there has been a considerable shift of American sentiment toward a more co-operative attitude. A presumably neutral writer (Ch'ao-ting Chi in the December Amerasia) classifies American opinion on foreign policy as follows.
There is an active minority, including such notable figures as Henry L. Stimson, Nicholas Murray Butler, Rabbi Stephen S. Wise, etc., and crystallized in such organizations as the Committee for Peace and Security in the Pacific, the League Against War and Fascism, American Friends of the Chinese People, etc., which warmly applauded and wholeheartedly supported President Roosevelt's Chicago speech. There is another minority group, led by the Neutrality bloc, crystallized around such peace organizations as the National Council for Prevention of War, World Peaceways, etc., which advocates isolation and hands-off the aggressor. These people showed open disapproval of the Chicago speech. The third group, the overwhelming majority of Americans, is vaguely pacifist, vaguely sympathetic with the victims of fascist aggression, wanting to do something about it but not knowing exactly what to do.
LATIN-AMERICAN SETTLEMENTS.-After considerable delay the Dominican Republic on December 18 accepted the plan for settling her pending dispute with Haiti by referring it to a committee of conciliation as provided for in the inter-American Gondra treaty of 1923. Before proposing this plan Haiti had suggested settlement with the advisory assistance of the United States, Mexico, and Cuba, but the Dominican government delayed acceptance and countered with a formula for direct negotiations. While admitting frontier clashes, the Dominican government described as grossly exaggerated the reports that as many as 8,000--or even 1,000- Haitian laborers had been massacred on Dominican soil.
In mid-December it was also announced that a plan had been agreed upon for settlement of the long-standing boundary dispute between Honduras and Nicaragua.