"It is intelligence and not sentiment that will give us world peace."1
To the naval officer, the question of peace or war is not an academic one. It is, on the contrary, the question which most vitally and intimately affects him, both personally and professionally. A study of the forces which make for peace or war is, therefore, not only a proper one for the naval officer, it is actually an essential one for the pursuance of his profession. In the existing strained condition of relations between nations, it may be that the safety of this nation will depend upon the correct and timely gauging of where and when war may break out.
This paper proposes a critical study of the pressures which are constantly endangering the peaceful relations between nations, and of the contiguity of high-pressure and low-pressure areas, so far as this contiguity furnishes some basis for prophesying the direction of outbreak.
This Shrinking World
When, on September 6, 1522, Juan Sebastian del Cano sailed the little Vittoria into Lisbon with the weary remnants of Magellan's crew, the first physical measurement of the earth's circumference was completed. Their circumnavigation took almost exactly three years.
In the days of the clipper ships, 1845-1850, an earnest traveler might conceivably have accomplished the same circumnavigation in 200 days, assuming that he was lucky enough to combine the record trips of those years, with an average of only one week between connections.2 In 31 centuries the globe had shrunk to 18 per cent of its former size.
In the very near future, possibly even before the time that this article appears in print, the tired business man may fold up his desk on a Saturday night, take a trip around the world on regularly scheduled commercial transportation services, and be back at his job by the expiration of his regular two weeks' vacation.3 As measured in terms of transportation, which is essentially a measure of human contacts, our world today is less than 11 per cent of the size that it was in the time of Magellan.
In this 400 years the population of the globe, according to the best estimates we are able to obtain, has increased from approximately 300,000,000 to nearly 2,000,000,000, or over six times. It is not surprising that crowding and friction between peoples should result.
In the study of physics, we are taught that compression produces heating, and that heat is increased velocity of the molecules. In world politics, pressure also produces heat, which results in greater activity of the individuals. In the case of nations, however, the increased activity of the individuals is not confined within the nation, but extends over the entire world, in the search for the raw materials and the export markets without which a crowded nation cannot live. These activities produce friction, which produces hot spots between nations. We will examine into those hot spots which exist, or are developing, in our world today.
The World Situation Presented Graphically
In order that we may examine into the existing pressures, and the contiguity of areas of high and low pressure, it is necessary to have some ready means of visual comparison, showing both geographic position and comparative pressure. The maps and graphs in ordinary use are entirely unsuitable for this purpose. Even on an equal-area projection of the earth's surface, it is impossible for the eye to gauge comparative areas of countries, on account of the irregular outlines, and on account of the distorted shapes of countries near the edges of the map. The common practice of dividing the earth into a Western and an Eastern Hemisphere presents a very distorted picture. It would not be surprising if the use of the conventional hemisphere maps had implanted in the minds of American school children the idea that both Great Britain and Japan are little twisted countries away out on the corners of the world. And perhaps to Japanese children, whose maps presumably center on Japan, North America likewise appears as a distorted land precariously perched on the extreme edge of space. Our child psychologists might investigate the possible effect of this upon the lack of understanding existing between nations. Mercator's projection with its tremendously exaggerated areas towards the poles is, of course, even more dangerous. At least one internationally known writer on world affairs has commented on the possible effect upon world politics of the habit of Europeans of studying the geography of the world on Mercator's projection.4
In order to obtain a ready visual means of comparison of areas, population pressures, and geographic position, the author found it necessary to devise the charts accompanying this article. By dividing the earth's surface into three equal parts, each of 120° of longitude, a much more accurate representation is obtained than is possible by dividing the earth into hemispheres. Furthermore, this division falls very nearly in line with the existing major spheres of political influence, the European, the Asiatic, and the American.
Referring to Plates I—VI, the left-hand plates are maps drawn on the sinusoidal equal-area projection, sometimes called Sanson's or Flamsteed's projection.5 The merits of this projection are that all points on the same horizontal line are in the same latitude, that distances along all parallels of latitude and along the central meridian are, by construction, correctly represented and may be scaled, and that areas are correctly proportioned. Also it is one of the easier projections to construct. Its disadvantage, which it shares with all equal-area projections, is the very considerable distortion of shapes near the edges of the map.6
The right-hand plates show graphically the area, population density, and total population of the various countries. In each case the horizontal length of the bar represents the area in square miles and the vertical height represents the population density in persons per square mile. The area of the bar, i.e., its length multiplied by its height, then represents the total population of the country.
A nation represented by a long, narrow, horizontal line is a nation of far-reaching area and comparatively few inhabitants, a defensive nation, for its wide open spaces invite the world to come in and settle. On the other hand, a nation represented by a vertical type bar, high in comparison to its base, is a nation with a large concentration of population piled high upon a comparatively small area of land. It is, in general, a nation which must expand, either physically or commercially, in order to support its people. Such nations we will call expansive nations.
The right-hand diagram thus gives us a simple picture of the type of nation, while the left-hand map shows its geographic relation to surrounding nations. Thus we have a means of determining very readily, by visual inspection, the points of high pressure, and the dangerous proximities to them of areas of low pressure.7 It is unnecessary, in this article, to go into detail to prove the disruptive influence of population pressure. The subject has been covered exhaustively by current writers. The inescapable compulsion to expand which faces a nation when its population pressure reduces the living standard below tolerable limits is now generally recognized.8 No surveyor's imaginary boundary line will for long withstand the pressure of a crowded and under-privileged people, when within their sight there lies an uncrowded and productive land, no matter how high the more favored nation may build its immigration and its tariff laws.
Expansion, to reduce excessive population pressure, does not mean necessarily actual migration of population. In recent history it more often means commercial expansion in the way of export sales, so that the excess population may be supported at home by work in industry. England, where emigration has practically ceased, in spite of high population pressure at home and tremendous areas of undeveloped land in her dominions and colonies, is an excellent example. Japan in Manchuria is another. The simple and obvious scheme of shipping out excess population to colonize the thinly settled parts of the world no longer works out in practice. There are a number of reasons, one of the principal of which is the unwillingness of the individual to be moved out to a strange and undeveloped land. The person brought up among the cities does not want to live, in a thinly settled country, where his neighbors are far away and everything is strange. He lacks both the self-reliance and the special knowledge required for success under those conditions.
But if the constricted nation can bring in raw materials and ship out and sell the finished products, then it may support its people in the manufacturing processes. It is commercial expansion to secure raw materials and export markets which is disrupting the peace of the world today.
The Euro-Afric Tripartisphere
For 1,500 years Europe has been the breeding place of war, and qualified observers predict war again in Europe within a few years. Why this should be is readily understandable by an inspection of Plates I and II. The compact black area in Plate I shows the concentration of population pressure. On Plate II the veritable forest of vertical type bars shows the number of expansive nations, nations with large populations crowded high upon small areas of land. In an area of only 1,519,000 square miles, approximately one-half the area of the United States, are crowded 361,000,000 people, 19 per cent of the earth's population in only 2.7 per cent of its land area. Furthermore, just to complicate the situation, these people are separated into 19 different nations, each with its own individual national necessities and aspirations.
To exist under these crowded conditions, with a reasonable scale of living for their nationals, these nations must develop industrially. To develop industrially, they must have raw materials and export markets. They must have, therefore, comparatively free and unrestricted use of world routes and world commerce. To Great Britain, for example, it is absolutely essential that she maintain unbroken her "Mediterranean life line,"9 over which passes 44 per cent of her foreign trade. To other constricted nations, similar open lines of commercial inflow and outflow are almost as essential. But many of the European nations do not have these open lines. Sooner or later they must have them, and they will fight for them if no other means proves successful.
Plate II shows Great Britain (plus Ireland, Gibraltar, and her Mediterranean Islands) an erect, expansive nation, overtopping her neighbors by virtue of her man power. Were it not for her dominions and over-seas possessions, her merchant fleets, and her naval domination of trade routes, England would be the most seriously constricted nation of the world today, but having these things, she is able to support her crowded population by industrial development. England, no longer protected by her geographic separation from Europe, the value of which disappeared with the first airplane and submarine, survives only by virtue of her lines of communication and world trade, and well she knows it, and guards those lines in consequence. Rudyard Kipling sums up the situation in these words, supposedly spoken to the people of England by one of her merchant ships:
For the bread that you eat and the biscuits you nibble,
The sweets that you suck and the joints that you carve,
They are brought to you daily by all us Big Steamers—
And if any one hinders our coming you'll starve.10
Next highest in population density is Germany,11 another erect, expansive nation, but constricted by other aggressive nations on all sides. Germany survives at present by temporarily accepting a reduced scale of living, while planning and preparing to again break out and acquire the territory, materials, and trade which are essential for the prosperity of her people. To quote an eyewitness:
Seen on the ground, it is also true that the problem of Germany appears insoluble without some means of expansion, territorial or commercial. Nearly a third of the people cannot be supported except by selling their products abroad. But where in Europe is there room for expansion? Where are markets?12
Our chart answers the first question. There is no room which could be acquired except at the expense of a general war. Germany's problem today is the same problem that it faced before the World War. It is startling to compare the present- day published statements from Germany with those of German leaders from 1901 to 1914.13 They are almost identical. Germany is again seeking an outlet just as she was in 1914. Thus is it once more demonstrated that outbursts of intense nationalistic passion are not caused by individual rulers, but are the result of fundamental pressures and conditions. Rulers do not make conditions, they are made by them. The little children of Germany, Italy, and Japan are drilling today, not because Hitler, Mussolini, and the Japanese War Office have willed it, but because the condition of a majority of the People has reached a point where they will support any measures which promise relief from the pressures which constrict their lives.
Third in order of population density is Italy, a veritable spearhead of a nation. Mussolini has stated the problem of Italy to be a choice between "expansion or explosion."14 Expansion into Ethiopia is in progress as this is written. Whether explosion can thus be averted remains to be seen.
France, with a population density of 197 persons per square mile, if located in any other portion of the world would be an expansive nation. Surrounded as she is by high-pressure areas immediately across her borders, she becomes by comparison a defensive nation. In view of this situation, as shown on Plate II, her urgent demands for security guarantees and her large expenditures for armed defense become understandable. Also it must be remembered that France carries in the mind of her people "the recollection of four invasions and at least one partition, all within a hundred years.'"15
Spain and Portugal appear on our chart to be in much the same situation as France, but they are rather consistently ignored by current writers on the European situation. Just why they do not share the apprehension of France, particularly in view of their comparatively meager armaments, is not entirely clear to this writer. Probably they are protected by a combination of three factors, (1) operation of the balance of power principle, (2) comparative lack of desirable raw materials, and (3) comparative geographic separation, all of which tend to insulate them from the excessive pressures of the expansive nations.
Of the smaller nations of Central Europe, it is unnecessary to particularize. Plate II shows graphically their crowded condition, and the high and narrow bars indicate clearly their high population pressure and small areas. It is very easy to see why the Balkans are always in unstable equilibrium politically.
Across the top of Plate II stretches Russia, in population density a defensive country, with her western border under constant strain from the high-pressure nations adjoining. The low population density of Russia is partially due to the very large arctic and subarctic regions. Yet even if the figure of population density be corrected to indicate the number of persons per square mile of arable land, Russia shows a density of only 66, as against 578 for Germany, 477 for Italy, and 294 for France.16 There is still ample room for agricultural expansion, and there are fertile lands and raw material sources on which the constricted nations must look with considerable envy.
Being a defensive nation, it is entirely logical that Russia should maintain a strong defense force, which she does in the form of the largest army in the world. Just how much this army is required to guard against external pressure, and how much to maintain domestic quiet, is an arguable question. Information from and about the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics is so contradictory, and so colored by violent prejudice, that it is difficult to be sure of the accuracy of one's conclusions.17
The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, although by population pressure a defensive country, has political principles which may at any time cause her to become an aggressive nation. The avowed communist desire to bring about world revolution by and for the proletariat, coupled with the fundamental communist principle that the end justifies any means, makes Russia the unpredictable factor in Europe. She lies like a black and forbidding storm cloud along the entire northeastern horizon and constitutes an important psychological pressure against peace. The economic motive is not the only cause of war. Wars have been fought in the past for religious or political causes, and it would be unsafe to say that history will not repeat itself in that particular.
There is probably no one thing more conducive to the free and normal development of a nation, and certainly nothing more productive of sound sleep to its citizens, than the knowledge that its boundaries are occupied by friendly and peaceful nations. We do not, in this nation, sufficiently appreciate our great good fortune in that respect. It is difficult to imagine what our life would be like if we faced an unfriendly and warlike nation across either border. If we will attempt to visualize ourselves in such a situation, with the constant fear and warlike preparation which would then govern our lives, we can better understand the feeling of the nations of Europe.
Leaving the great powder magazine of unequalized and dangerous pressures which is Europe, we pass to Africa, the greatest single area of low-population pressure in the world.
Africa is a perfect demonstration of the natural and inevitable outcome of the adjacency of areas of extreme high and low pressures. In all of that great continent there remain only two free nations, Ethiopia which is now in process of subjugation or dismemberment, and tiny Liberia.18 All else has suffered the natural fate of unprotected defensive country lying within convenient reach of expansive nations.
With a native population which has been practically stationary for many years, Africa has provided a relief valve for Europe. But the land is now all claimed, and any expansive effort into Africa is bound to trespass upon the interests of some European nation.
The Euro-Afric Tripartisphere does not present an encouraging picture. The concentration of pressures in Europe has for generations been the principal disturbing force against world peace. With the taking up of all free lands in Africa, the principal relief valve has been plugged. Europe will continue to disturb the peace until its nations work out some peaceful means of adjusting these pressures.
If the League of Nations, or any other agency or concert of nations, can work out an adjustment of existing pressures, there is hope that that adjustment might remain effective for a considerable period, since population pressures in Europe are no longer increasing at their former rapid rate. In fact, it is predicted that populations in Western Europe will become stationary within a few decades.19 In this connection it is interesting to observe that birth rates are influenced more by economic conditions and education than by the attempts of the rulers to stimulate them artificially. Birth rates in Germany and Italy have actually decreased during the past fifteen years, in spite of the well-publicized edicts and decrees of dictators and churches. In this one matter, at least, the individual citizen apparently feels that his own personal convenience, rather than governmental policy, should govern. Adjustment of pressure through decreasing birth rates, however, is too slow a process to affect the present discussion.
The Asiatic Tripartisphere
The one-third portion of the globe pictured in Plates III and IV presents a situation not quite so simple to interpret as that which we have just examined.
The black area of high-population pressure in Plate III is no smaller than that in Europe. But there is only one erect, vertical type bar shown on Plate IV for the entire tripartisphere. Japan is the only nation whose graph resembles that of practically all the crowded states of Central Europe.
Here, as in Europe, Russia lies encircling the top of Asia, like the great interrogation mark that she is. Russia, in Asia, is clearly a defensive country. Although much of the area is cold and barren, yet neither distance, climate, nor difficulties of terrain will prevent man from bringing out those raw materials which the world demands.
In the Asiatic sphere, as in Europe, an island power of comparatively small area, but bursting with a population density exceeded only by Great Britain and Germany, lies just off the mainland. Plate IV shows Japan to be an erect, highly compressed nation. In an area scarcely larger than the combined areas of California and Oregon is concentrated a population three-quarters as large as that of the entire United States. The actual pressure in Japan is even greater than the chart indicates, due to the mountainous nature of much of the land. In terms of persons per square mile of arable land, Japan shows a population pressure of 2,148, as against Great Britain's 596, Germany's 578, and the United States' 100.20 Japan believes that her problem, like that of Italy and Germany, is "expansion or explosion."
As to the expansion of Japan, it is not necessary to prophesy. Both physical and commercial expansion have been in progress for several years and may be shown in cold figures. In 1928 the textile trade of the Netherlands Indies was divided approximately equally between Japan, Great Britain, and the Netherlands. In 1935, Japan supplied 76 per cent while the other two nations divided the remaining 24 per cent.21 And it is not Indonesia alone, but the entire world that is feeling the effect of Japan's commercial expansion.
Japan cannot feed its increasing population without giving opportunity for employment in factories. Industrialization is the solution of Japan's population problem. . . . In 1933 Japan sold more textiles to India than Great Britain did. Japan's trade with the Dutch East Indies exceeds that of the Netherlands. Its exports of textiles to Kenya and Uganda were six times as large as Great Britain's.22
The physical expansion of Japan on the mainland has been in progress since 1895 and has been greatly accelerated during the last few years. Her continental possessions, including the nominally independent Manchukuo, now cover an area 327 per cent as large as the area of Japan proper. At the time that this is written the question of autonomy for the five northern provinces of China is in the balance. These provinces are therefore shown on the chart, both as a part of China and as a separate entity lined up with Japan and Manchukuo.
China presents a most difficult problem to the analyst, because of its widely divergent extremes and because of the inadequacy of accurate statistics. The inquirer finds himself floundering in a mass of estimates by various authorities, differing in many cases by more than 100 per cent, and not correlated as to boundaries or names of provinces. For the purpose of this study, the figures used in general are those of Mr. H. G. Woodhead in The China Year-Book, 1934. These figures for population are considerably lower than those of many estimators.
To avoid errors of generalization, the outlying portions of greater China must be considered separately from China proper. Outer Mongolia, practically autonomous, is a defensive country subject both to the expansive movements of Japan and the infiltration of the Soviet doctrines. Mongolia may at any time become a battle ground for these two forces. Sinkiang (Chinese Turkestan) and Tibet, both very loosely held by the Chinese Republic, are open fields for expansion from without. Their lack of desirable raw materials and rich lands, their remoteness and the absence of modern transportation, will probably prevent their entering into the picture of world peace or war for many years.
China proper presents an entirely different picture. With population densities rising to a maximum estimated at 7,000 persons per square mile over large portions of the fertile river valleys and coastal plains, China would normally be an expansive nation. But because of her lack of modern development and industry, and particularly because of the national characteristics of her people, she remains a commercially defensive nation. The common people of China are, as yet, accepting a very low standard of living and the misery of famine, disease, and natural disaster, rather than to bestir themselves in a united effort for betterment. They have been, like the natives of India and Africa, unable either to adopt, or to defend themselves against, the methods of the modern nations.
Here, as in India, it is the market, the outlet for manufactured products, provided by these millions of consumers, which is being contested for by the industrialized nations of the world. China is, therefore, a commercially defensive nation, in spite of her population pressure.
The dotted line separates the five northern provinces, Shantung, Hopei, Shansi, Chahar, and Suiyuan, from the remainder of China. The proposed separation of these provinces as an autonomous North China is much in the public prints as this is written. The final result and ultimate boundary is uncertain. It seems safe to predict, however, that the Japanese will go forward, rather than back, with their modern adaptation of the old Roman principle, "Divide and Conquer," and sooner or later we may see not only the northern portion of China, but other portions farther south and west, follow in the footsteps of Manchukuo.
These five northern provinces cover the principal portion of the lower Hwang Ho (Yellow River) valley. North China, according to Mr. Woodhead, was the first settling place for the ancestors of the present Chinese people, as they moved in from the westward, and its people are quite different in many characteristics from the Chinese of the southern provinces. The population density as a whole is slightly greater than that of the rest of China as a whole, but the same wide diversity in density occurs. Shantung, which includes the lower river and delta of the Hwang Ho, has a density of 500- 600 persons per square mile. Hopei, which includes the large cities of Tientsin and Peiping, has a density around 300. Shansi, along the Hwang Ho, has around 130, and the two northern provinces of Chahar, and Suiyuan along the Mongolian border are probably between 50 and 70. The confusion in statistics previously mentioned is particularly noticeable in attempting to gain a picture of North China. This confusion no doubt accounts for the many gross errors in estimates of population and areas which appeared in the current press reports regarding the proposed separation of this territory.23
The progress of Japanese expansion, first into Manchukuo, and next into North China, is an example made to order of the thesis of unequal pressures upon which this article is based.
To the south, as in the Euro-Afric Tripartisphere, we pass to a great defensive area of comparatively thinly settled countries. And to further this resemblance, all of these lands, with the sole exception of Siam, have been appropriated by the expansive nations of Europe. The mere presence of these defensive areas, so far from their owning nations, but so near to an erect, aggressive, and expanding nation, is an ever present threat of war.
Directly between the high-pressure areas of the north and the low-pressure areas to the south, lie the Philippine Islands. Like France, the Philippines if located elsewhere might be an expansive country. But located so close to the high-pressure areas of Japan and China, the islands become a defensive area. Furthermore, the same condition of commercial undevelopment and national characteristics that exists in China and India makes the area commercially defensive as well. The position of the Philippines, blocking further expansion southward of the great island empire which is now seeking expansion, is also significant. All these factors combined produce a dangerous condition of pressure, the results of which we dare not prophesy, but which we can only look upon with concern.
The Asiatic Tripartisphere, like the Euro-Afric, gives very little hope to the seeker for world peace. There is a condition of severe strain, which is even now breaking down established boundaries. The adjustment of pressures is actually in progress. The question in this part of the sphere is not when, but how far will the adjustment of pressures go, and how many nations will become involved, before equilibrium is established.
The American Tripartisphere
After examining the other two-thirds of the world, we turn with relief to the uncrowded areas of the American Tripartisphere. In all of the Americas, there is only one nation, Salvador, and a few islands, which do not appear white on our map (Plate V). The entire land area, constituting over 29 per cent of the land area of the globe, is occupied by only a little over 12 per cent of the world's inhabitants. It is, therefore, practically in its entirety, a defensive area. There is not a single vertical type bar, representing an expansive nation, on the whole of Plate VI.
There are, however, comparative degrees of pressure, even among defensive nations. The war in South America between Bolivia and Paraguay, which officially ended October 28, 1935, illustrates the point. The Chaco, shown separately on Plate VI because at the time of this writing no final settlement of the conflicting claims has been made, is certainly a defensive area, and compared to it both Bolivia and Paraguay are expansive nations. Bolivia desired to expand, principally for an outlet to the Atlantic via the Paraná River. Paraguay wished to expand for raw materials. The very thinly settled and unprotected area of the Chaco was scissored in between. Where the same conditions exist elsewhere on the globe, the same results may be expected.
With the ending of this war, the American Tripartisphere is the only tripartisphere in which armed conflict between nations is not actually in progress as this is written. It is the only one showing none of the strains of unequalized population pressures which our previous charts have shown. It is the only one in which tremendous areas of inviting land are still thinly settled and still unappropriated by great foreign powers. Is it any wonder if the Americas should appear as the Promised Land to the crowded nations of the rest of the world?
Had it not been for the policy of the United States, formally stated by President Monroe in 1823, which set the United States against the imperial expansion of European nations anywhere in America, the map of Central and South America might now look like that of Africa or Indonesia. Instead, it shows only British Honduras, the three Guianas, and the Caribbean Islands as possessions of foreign powers.
But pressure in the expansive nations of the world constantly increases. It has been amply demonstrated that peoples whose lives are constricted by excessive pressure are not going to be held from expansion by present-day peace pacts, nor by past pronouncements. And no longer can it be said, as Secretary of State Richard Olney said in 1895,
Today the United States is practically sovereign on this continent, and its fiat is law upon the subjects to which it confines its interposition.
We are the only nation in the Americas attempting to maintain a defense force adequate to protect our inviting areas from the invasion of others. We have in addition, by the Monroe Doctrine, taken upon ourselves the task of protecting all of our American neighbors. The question must intrude itself into the thoughtful mind, shall we abandon this traditional policy, or shall we build a navy and army large enough to enforce it? There is no permanent safety on any middle ground.
For the present, however, the American Tripartisphere shows no threat to world peace comparable in any way to the other two tripartispheres.
Other Pressures against Peace
It is not the intention of this article to claim that population pressure is the only cause of war. That it is one of the principal causes, either directly or indirectly, is generally conceded.24
National and ethnic characteristics, so frequently stressed as a cause of war, are conditioned by the population pressure under which a people lives. Of all the circumstances which mold national character and characteristics, constriction of population and commerce is by far the most influential.
The presence or absence of raw materials is frequently discussed as a major cause of war, as it unquestionably is.25 But it is obvious that the need of a nation for raw materials is dependent upon its population pressure. A nation of low population density may survive from its own land if necessary, but a nation of high population pressure must have raw materials to maintain the industries which support its people. Therefore the question of raw materials also resolves itself back to the problem of population pressures.
There is, however, one factor in the formation of national character which should be discussed further. That is the difference in the time placement of a nation in the scale of national development, or in other words its age as a modern nation. This can be illustrated most strikingly by the simple time chart shown in Plate VII.
England emerged from feudalism during the period between 1215 and 1485, and spent 400 years in passing through the periods of internal development and external expansion by conquest, to reach her present assured position as a self-sufficient world power. The United States, coming into existence after the feudal period, had its brief period of imperial expansion between 1846 and 1902. But Japan, starting 400 years after England and nearly 100 years after the United States, has accomplished a comparable development in two generations. It is a record unapproached in modern history, and one in which the Japanese people may well take pride.
It is not surprising that this rapid development, this youth as a modern nation, should produce in the Japanese a certain self-confidence, and a belief in the continued advancement and expansion of their empire, as though it might be something fated or foreordained. Anyone who can remember with what patriotic fervor the people of our own country embraced the doctrine of Manifest Destiny in 1898 will understand the sentiment. Unquestionably, the aggressive period is a phase in the development of almost every people,26 just as it is in the development of almost every individual. If we remember that the Japanese are only two generations removed from feudalism, so that inevitably feudalism survives in the thought and feeling of the people,27 then the predominant influence of the military party in Japanese politics becomes understandable.
The comparative youth of Japan as a modern nation, and the rejuvenation of Germany and Italy, with their consequent aggressive attitude in seeking what they consider a fair share of the world's green pastures, certainly constitute a very immediate and concentrated pressure against peace. Some time in the future Russia, now exclusively engaged in internal development, will undoubtedly reach the period of expansion, and another great pressure will be created. Future generations will have to worry about the Chinese people, for they are as yet on the first rung of the ladder of modernization.
Adjustment of Pressure
It is not the attempt of this article to prove one thing or another. Its purpose is to furnish a statistical foundation, which will enable the reader to gain a clearer picture of the basic conditions which endanger peace throughout the world. These basic conditions and forces should be studied by the statesman and the civilian, for the purpose of determining how the pressures may be relieved peacefully. They must be studied by the military man in order that he may be prepared for the armed outbreak which will follow inevitably if the statesmen fail.
It is only fair to say that statesmen are studying the possibilities of peaceful adjustment. Proposals to this end, which a few years ago would have been considered little short of treasonable, are being seriously proposed. General J. B. M. Hertzog, Premier of the Dominion of South Africa, is reported to have stated that his Dominion will recommend turning over to German mandate the former German colonies of Southwest Africa and Tanganyika, now British mandates, as well as independent Liberia.28 Even in the Parliament of Britain, traditional stronghold of the imperial spirit that takes but never gives back, George Lansbury, leader of the Labor Party, made the following proposal:
His Majesty's Government, in conjunction with the Government of the United States, should revive the World Economic Conference and arrange to distribute the world's economic resources so that countries like Italy, Japan, and Germany, whose needs for expansion are generally admitted, could get what they need without aggression.29
True he was immediately rebuffed by Foreign Secretary Sir Samuel Hoare. Nevertheless, the Manchester Guardian only a month later reports in its editorial columns:
When Sir Samuel Hoare spoke to the League Assembly on Wednesday . . . he promised the support of the British Government for an inquiry into the whole question how far the "raw materials from colonial areas, including protectorates and mandated territories," could be made available and freely distributed, among the countries that have need of them.30
Revolutionary proposals these, marking a new approach to the problem of unequalized pressures. Historians may some day record them as the first visible beginnings of a world where nations will give as well as take, in order to preserve the peace of the world.
However, we are interested in the present situation rather than the verdict of history. Our charts show the existing intolerable pressures in Europe. There is no time to wait for the slow swing of public opinion. The crisis is immediate. Experienced commentators predict war in Europe within a very few years, even if the immediate Italian difficulty be settled peacefully. There is only one hope of peace, and that is that the League of Nations shall cease from being merely a means of preserving the status quo and take up the task of adjusting the status from time to time so as to remove the causes of war. This is a very slim hope, for it requires, (1) a measure of independence from national influences in making its judicial decisions, and (2) adequate power to enforce its decisions, neither of which it now possesses.
The present temper of the American people is to keep out of European difficulties. Our problem will therefore be to preserve our neutrality. It is a much more difficult problem than our people realize, and the burden of its enforcement will fall largely upon the Navy.
We have no possessions in the Euro-Afric Tripartisphere. It is possible then that we may avoid actual participation in European conflict, if we maintain a navy and an army strong enough to demand respect, if we have cool and enlightened statesmanship, and if our people are willing to suffer the unemployment and commercial depression incident to refusal to sell to belligerents, and to see the profits from that trade going to other nations. There are too many ifs in the statement to permit us to view the prospect with any confidence.
In the Asiatic Tripartisphere the picture is equally disquieting, although perhaps not so immediately dangerous. Even if Japan, following what she undoubtedly feels to be her manifest destiny, succeeds in gaining the territory on the mainland which she seeks, and perhaps even continues on her present course until the entire seacoast of China is ringed with a wall of nominally autonomous nations like Manchukuo and North China, the problem of excess pressures is not solved. The crowded millions of Chinese and of native Indians, just commencing to awaken to the modern world, constitute an ever increasing peril to the defensive lands to the south.
We cannot stay aloof from Asiatic affairs, even though our people might be willing to accept the loss of our share in the increasing trade of China, with the consequent reduction in the living scale of our industrial population. In our brief excursion into the imperialistic game of acquiring foreign territory, we acquired the Philippine Islands. In these 7,000 islands we now find that we have given a hostage to the preservation of peace in the Far East. Willingly or unwillingly, we are involved along with the British Empire, France, and the Netherlands, in any territorial changes in that region.
With the assumption of independent status by the Philippines on November 15, 1935, we have made a start in withdrawing from the Asiatic sphere. But it will be ten
1 H. G. Wells, "How to Bring Peace on Earth," Liberty, Dec. 29, 1934.
2 Clipper ship Sea Witch, New York to Canton, 73 days; clipper ship Oriental, China to London, 91 days; packet ship Emerald, Liverpool to Boston, 17 days. The Pageant of America, IV, 40-48.
3 Via the following routes: U. S. commercial air lines, New York—San Francisco, 2 days; Pan-American Airways, San Francisco—Shanghai, 3 days; Lufthansa lines, Shanghai—Moscow, 2 days; European commercial air lines, Moscow—Liverpool, 1 day; Transatlantic steamship, Liverpool—New York, 5 days. Clifton Pease, Travel Expert, Seattle.
4 H. G .Wells, The Outline of History, 3d ed. pp. 976-7.
5 Also called Mercator's equal-area projection. This projection, like the conventional Mercator's projection, is not a geometric projection but is a graphical representation of the features of the earth's surface, drawn within a network of lines arbitrarily chosen to represent the parallels of latitude and the meridians of longitude. For a very complete and yet concise explanation of the various projections, see Elements of Map Projection, by Chas. H. Deetz and Oscar S. Adams, U. S. Coast and Geodetic Survey, Special Publication 68, obtainable from the Government Printing Office at 8.75 per copy.
6 In these plates distortion in the diagonal distances does not exceed 25 per cent between latitude 60°N. and S. and between the meridians 40°E. and W. of the central meridian. This degree of accuracy also extends to all points on the map between latitudes 30°N. and S. excepting on the very extreme edges. Beyond these units, however, distortion increases very rapidly, reaching as much as 75 per cent in the extreme limits of the quadrants north and south of the 60th parallel.
7 Population and area figures for this study are taken from The Statesman's Yearbook, 1934, and are checked in doubtful cases against the 1935 edition, The World Almanac, 1935, and the Rand McNally Atlas, 1934. The latest official or semiofficial figures have been used where available, and what seemed the most reasonable estimates in other cases. Populations are known within 10 per cent plus or minus for only about two-thirds of the world's people. For the remainder, principally in Africa and Asia, estimates differ very widely. However, these differences are not sufficient to negate the arguments of this article.
8 See particularly The Price of Peace, Frank H. Simonds and Brooks Emeny, 1935. For a dramatic presentation see Must We Fight in Asia? Nathaniel Peffer, 1935, Chap. V.
9 Frank H. Simonds, "The Drift to War," Current History, October, 1935.
10 Big Steamers, 1914-18.
11 Leaving out of consideration Belgium and the Netherlands, with approximately 8,000,000 people each, and population densities of 699 and 651, respectively, each of which have extensive possessions overseas to relieve their expansion problem.
12 Anne Hare McCormick, "Hitler's Hunches, What Next?" New York Times Magazine, April 21, 1935.
13 See pamphlet, Conquest and Kultur: Aims of the Germans in Their Own Words, issued at Washington, D.C. in 1918 by the Committee on Public Information.
14 Simonds and Emeny, The Price of Peace, p. 232.
15 Ibid., p. 268.
16 Ibid. p. 27. The figure given for Russia includes the entire republic, both in Europe and Asia. It would, of course, be considerably higher for the European portion alone, but still not nearly so high as that of the other nations mentioned.
17 Authorities differ even as to the translation into English of the official name of the Republic. The Encyclopedia Britannica and the Statesman's Year-book use Union of Socialist Soviet Republics, whereas American authorities reverse the order of Socialist and Soviet. Although the British usage appears slightly more logical, I have used the American, since it is confirmed by The U.S.S.R. in Figures, Soyouzorgoutchot, Moscow, 1934, official publication of the Central Administration of Economic and Social Statistics, U.S.S.R.
18 Inasmuch as we later consider Manchukuo as an independent nation, we should perhaps include the nominally independent Egypt in the same category.
19 This and following data from articles by Robert R. Kuczynski and A. B. Wolfe, under title of "Population," in Encyclopedia of Social Sciences, 1934, XII, 240-53.
20 Simonds and Emeny, The Price of Peace, p. 27.
21 Time, August 12, 1935, p. 17.
22 Nathaniel Peffer, Must We Fight in Asia? 1935, pp. 119 and 132.
23 Estimates of area used in this article are those of Mr. Tsen Shihying, reported in The China Year- Book, 1934, p. 4, checked by scaling the areas on The National Geographic Magazine's map of Asia, 1933, and applying the proper factor for correcting area exaggeration inherent in the map projection used. Population figures are obtained by reconciling so far as possible the various estimates appearing in The China Year-Book. The total checks closely with the total of 90-95 million generally used in current press reports.
24 For a dramatic and conclusive argument on this subject, see Harold Cox, The Problem of Population, 1923, Chap. III.
25 See Simonds and Emeny, The Price of Peace, for a detailed and comprehensive study of this subject, with valuable charts.
26 W. Prak, "Problems of the Pacific," the Naval Institute
PROCEEDINGS, July, 1935.
27 Nathaniel Peffer, Must We Fight in Asia? 1935, p.111.
28 Time, May 20, 1935, p. 21.
29 Ibid., August 12,1935, p. 16.
30 The Manchester Guardian Weekly, "Britain and the Covenant," September 13, 1935.