From December 3 to January 3
UNITED STATES AND LATIN AMERICA
President Roosevelt States Policy.—In an address at the Wilson dinner in Washington on December 28, President Roosevelt made a clear declaration of the American policy on intervention, supporting the stand which Secretary Hull had already been authorized to take at Montevideo. He referred to President Wilson’s assurance that the United States would never seek one additional foot of territory by conquest; and supplemented this with the statement that “the definite policy of the United States from now on is one opposed to armed intervention.” In case of trouble in one nation which affects others of the American continent, “it becomes the joint concern of a whole continent in which we are all neighbors.” This was the salient feature of the President’s address. Obviously his statement in no way affects the Monroe Doctrine, which is directed against European intervention in the Americas. The President gave assurance against unilateral interference on the part of the United States, and advocated joint action where intervention should become necessary.
In reference to world affairs, the President remarked that while the United States does not contemplate membership in the League of Nations, it is “co-operating more openly in the fuller utilization of League machinery than ever before." He believed that 90 per cent of the world sincerely wants peace, but he felt the danger that the other 10 per cent may go along with a leadership that seeks territorial expansion. His speech closed with a reference to his proposals of last summer—that all nations agree (1) to eliminate offensive weapons, and (2) not to permit its armed forces to enter the territory of other nations.
Pan-American Conference.— Though the Pan-American Conference of December 6-26 reached no more definite accomplishments than most gatherings of its type, it served its purpose in creating a better feeling between the United States and its Latin American neighbors. Of the measures approved by the conference in its final session two were of chief note: (1) a treaty requiring of all signatories that "there shall be no distinction in their law and practice relating to women," and (2) a resolution pledging the signatories to the policy that there shall be no intervention in the affairs of another nation. Secretary Hull accepted this last policy only in so far as it should be in harmony with the views of President Roosevelt as expressed in his public addresses, but its adoption by the American administration was confirmed by the President's Wilson dinner speech noted above.
The adoption by the conference of Secretary Hull's resolution in favor of lower tariffs meant little, since similar resolutions have been adopted in previous gatherings with negative results. The attitude of the United States administration is that progress toward lower tariffs can best be made by bilateral trade agreements, such as that signed on December 15 by the United States and Colombia, which is to be followed by similar agreements with Brazil, Argentina, Sweden, and Portugal. Other economic matters were referred to a special financial conference to be held later at Santiago.
Spanish and Portuguese representatives were for the first time admitted to a Pan-American union conference as observers, and the gathering participated actively also in the League Commission's efforts to end warfare in the Chaco.
Peace Prospects In Chaco.—More perhaps than the activities of the League Commission or the Montevideo Conference, the sweeping victory of Paraguay in her December campaign in the Chaco served to clear the way for peace. Culminating an offensive begun in October, the Paraguayans captured Fort Saavedra on December 11 and later the Bolivian main base at Munos, inflicting on the Bolivians a loss of about 15,000. A truce, similar to the Christmas truce of last year, was arranged to extend from December 18 to December 31. Hostilities ceased, but from Bolivia came a complaint that Paraguay had occupied four forts after the armistice, and from Paraguay a demand that Bolivia evacuate the Chaco region and give guarantees against removal of hostilities.
The League Chaco Commission, composed of military representatives of England, France, Italy, and Mexico, with the Spanish diplomat Alvarez del Vayo as chairman, arrived in South America in November and visited both the Bolivian and Paraguayan capitals. Final conferences with representatives of both belligerents began at Montevideo on December 26 and were subsequently transferred to Buenos Aires. If, as reported, the conference was to seek a settlement which would take into account the economic needs of each belligerent, including Bolivia's demand for a sea exit, then a peace might be achieved which would not leave the seeds of future war.
Cuba's Government Problems.—The Grau government improved its position in Cuba by its quick suppression of the Havana revolt in November, and although conditions at the close of December were still chaotic throughout the interior of the island, President Grau remained determined to hold his office till the election of a new constituent assembly next May. In December Mr. Jefferson Caffrey succeeded Mr. Sumner Welles as American representative, and despite rumors of the long expected "third revolution" the Grau government stood in somewhat better prospect of American recognition. At Christmas 300 prisoners taken in the November revolt were released, and 32 of the 404 Army officers captured on October 2 in the Hotel Nacional.
LEAGUE AND ARMAMENTS
France Rejects Reich Offers.— Through the French embassy in Berlin the German government early in December offered definite proposals to France for the settlement of armament issues between the two countries. These proposals included: (1) renunciation by Germany of all territorial ambitions in the west after settlement of the Saar Valley question, which should be disposed of at once without waiting for the 1935 plebiscite; (2) pledges from France and other nations not to increase armaments and to grant Germany a somewhat greater "defensive" strength, equal roughly to about one-fourth the combined arms of France, Poland, and Czechoslovakia, with an army of 300,000; (3) reciprocal periodic supervision of armaments, extended to quasi-military organizations such as storm troops and special police. Although there is some sentiment among Left elements in France in favor of direct negotiations with Germany, the reply carried back to Berlin by Ambassador Francois Poncet in January was a rejection of these proposals. France, supported by the Little Entente, still clung to the idea of a general arms treaty worked out at Geneva which would thus have general European backing, and was also highly suspicious of Italian proposals to “reform” the League by decreasing the voting power of the smaller nations. After maintaining a receptive attitude through the month to the views of both Germany and Italy, England at the close of the year came back into general support of the French point of view. The arms steering committee was to reassemble in January, but with slight prospects of further progress.
Reform of League.—In December the Fascist Grand Council in Italy took up the question of reforming the League of Nations, with the implication in the background that unless such reforms were effected Italy would withdraw from the League as a futile institution. As suggested in the Italian press, these reforms should be on the lines of (1) completely divorcing the League Covenant and the Versailles Treaty; (2) diminishing the voice of the smaller states in both the Assembly and the Council; (3) reducing League of expenditures and also its multifarious bureaucratic activities. Italians have naturally little use for the democratic set-up of the League, and if its scope is to remain chiefly European, they would like to see it dominated by the four or five major European states.
Germany Rearms.—In an article of this title in the January Forum, Albert Brandt collects abundant evidence that Germany is rearming both "physically and spiritually." The militarization has been evident enough in the gas protection drill in the public schools, the revival of duelling, the semi-military training in the labor army, and the insistence on the military virtues which has always been part of the Nazi program. More tangible is Mr. Brandt's estimated total of 1,225,000 German troops fully or partly trained—a figure reached by including 450,000 storm troops, 150,000 of the Stahlhelm, 200,000 of the labor army, the various police organizations, and the 100,000 of the regular army. It can be shown that cotton imports have doubled since 1930, and iron and copper imports have more that doubled since 1932. The article contains data also on the greatly increased manufacture of gas, aviation materials, and munitions.
EUROPEAN POLITICS
Rumanian Premier Assassinated.—Ion G. Duca, Liberal party leader who recently became premier of Rumania, was assassinated on December 29 shortly after an audience with King Carol at the latter’s castle two hours' journey outside Bucharest. The shooting was committed by one of three Nazi enthusiasts, members of the Iron Guard organization which had been proscribed by Duca shortly after he be came head of the ministry, and which is said to have threatened vengeance upon him for having "sold the country to the Jews."
French Budget Passed.—On December 11 the Chautemps ministry in France cleared the obstacle which had upset three previous ministries when it got the budget through the Chamber with the inclusion of a limited cut in civil servants' pay. The Socialist party, already split on the budget issue, refrained from voting, preferring its passage to another crisis and a new coalition ministry.
War Debts Payments.—On December 15 six of the eleven European nations owing to the United States $152,952,638, made token payments amounting to $8,898,123. Of this Great Britain paid $7,5000,000 and Italy $1,000,000. Only Finland paid her installment in full. Economic conditions were used as an excuse in most cases, but Belgium referred to assurances from American sources that her debts would be covered by German reparations.
SPANISH UPRISINGS.— Spain's second Republican Cortes assembled on December 8 with the strength of the Right parties increased in numbers from 50 to 210. Santiago Alba, a conservative politician under the monarchy, was elected speaker and vice-president. During the next week another wave of strikes and vandalism swept over Spain, chiefly fomented by syndicalists and anarchists as a protest against the swing to the Right in the national elections. About 80 were killed and 250 injured before the violence subsided.
FAR EAST
A Russo-Japanese War Menace.—Evidence that the Soviet government is not averse to the arousing of public sentiment to the possibilities of war in the Orient is seen in the featuring in the Russian press of Japanese encroachments in Manchuria, the arrest of Russian officials, and the activities of Japanese agents in Mongolia. Among the Russian people, according to New York Times correspondent, Walter Duranty, the question is not whether there is to be a war, but when the day will come. Since the beginning of the Manchurian warfare M. Stalin is said to have made foreign affairs his special province, and his whole policy in Europe has been directed toward creating the most favorable attitude toward Russia in order to be able to meet the danger of Japanese provocation with as little risk as possible. After an interview with M. Stalin at the close of 1933 the same correspondent quoted him as follows:
We should like to have friendly relations with the Japanese, but unfortunately that does not depend on us alone. If the more reasonable elements and more prudent counsels prevail in Japan our two countries can live in amity, but we fear that the militant faction may push saner policies into the background.
There is real danger, and we are forced to prepare ourselves to meet it because no nation can respect its government if it does not foresee the danger of attack and prepare for self-defense. It seems to me that Japan would be unwise to attack us. Her economic position is not too sound, and she has points of weakness—Korea, Manchuria and China.
It is unlikely, too, whether she would get support for such an adventure from other powers. But good soldiers are not always good economists and do not always appreciate the difference between the force of arms and the force of economic laws. I repeat that there is grave danger, and we cannot but prepare to meet it.
The Siberian railway is now double-tracked except in the district around Lake Baikal, and as a farsighted measure to increase Russian man power and resources in Siberia the government has granted increased pay and privileges to Army and civilian workers east of the Urals.
In Japan, aside from the larger military and naval appropriations, there has been a steady accumulation of war materials during the past year, as evidenced by increased exports from European sources. French munitions exports alone increased from 1,400 quintals in 1932, to 3,150 in 1933, though the destination of these exports has not been made public. While Tokyo officials speak of the tension between Japan and Russia as considerably less than it was last summer and point out that the Russian forces on the Siberian frontier are three or four times greater than the Japanese troops in Manchukuo, there is nevertheless in military circles a definite acceptance of the phrase “crisis of 1936” as referring not merely to further naval parleys but to an approaching war.