From November 3 to December 3
FAR EAST
The Conflict in Manchuria.—With winter weather limiting warfare, and Chinese resistance largely broken down except on the southern frontier, the prospects of a return to diplomacy in Manchuria appeared naturally somewhat brighter. On December 2 the League Council had completed a resolution, which if finally approved at Tokyo and Nanking, will create a commission of five members to visit the Far East and investigate the whole Sino-Japanese complication. Prior to this investigation, no definite date is set for Japanese withdrawal from occupied areas.
Aside from the possible extension of Japanese control in continental Asia, the Manchurian developments have a special interest to the rest of the world as the first major test of the new machinery of the league, the Paris Pact, and the Pacific treaty as preventatives of war, and as checks also on intervention by force to insure treaty rights. From a realistic standpoint it might perhaps be contended that in Manchuria force has already attained its aims before these checks could effectively intervene; and further, that the saving of this region for China, even if accomplished, might prove a dubious achievement, in view of the fact that Japanese influence has already made it an asylum for some millions of Chinese from the bandit-ridden provinces to the south. With the situation still in flux, an attempt is made here simply to chronicle the chief events of the month, with emphasis on diplomatic developments, in continuation of the record in last month’s issue.
November 3.—The peace conference at Shanghai between the Nanking and Canton governments in China breaks down after several weeks of fruitless negotiations. In view of the hostility of the Cantonese, General Chiang Kai-shek is no longer willing to step down from the presidency. Cantonese delegates condemn the inaction of the Nanking government and its reliance on league intervention.
First clashes between Chinese forces under General Ma-Chen-shan and Japanese troops covering repairs on the Nonni River railway bridge, twenty-one miles south of Tsitsihar.
Japanese report 10,000 Korean settlers in Kirin province massacred by Chinese since September 18.
November 5.-—President Briand calls League Council to meet on November 17. Returning to Tokyo, Ambassador W. Cameron Forbes officially notifies Japan that the United States associates itself with the league resolution of October 26.
November 6.—Chinese defeated and forced to evacuate their first line of defense north of the Nonni River after ten days’ fighting.
In reply to Chinese charges that Japan has seized the salt revenues at New Chang, Japan explains that these have been taken over by the “Mukden Peace Preservation Commission,” a Chinese organization acting as interim government.
November 7.-—In reply to the league resolution of October 26, Japan definitely refuses to withdraw troops by November 16, and renews her insistence on Chinese recognition of the five points laid down on October 24, including respect for treaty rights of Japan.
November 8.—Japanese troops withdraw to south bank of Nonni River, and Chinese reoccupy their front lines on north bank.
Fighting between Chinese factions on the edge of the Japanese concession at Tientsin.
November 14.—In view of threatened advance of Japanese across the Chinese Eastern Railway near Tsitsihar, the Soviet government reminds Japan of her “assurances that Soviet interests will be respected” during the Manchurian conflict.
November 16.—Second special session of League Council to deal with the Sino-Japanese problem, Premier Briand as chairman, and Sir John Simon, new British Foreign Minister, in attendance. Ambassador Charles G. Dawes at Paris as American representative, but not in attendance at council meetings.
November 17.—Nine-Power Treaty, (Washington, 1922) clause guaranteeing territorial integrity of China is considered in its bearing on Manchurian developments. Japan called on for precise statement of treaty claims, but reserves these for direct negotiations with China.
November 18.—Chinese Army estimated at 20,000 to 25,000 defeated and routed on Nonni River by Japanese force of about 4,000. Japanese advance and occupy Tsitsihar, north of Chinese Eastern Railway. Chinese retreat northeastward toward Koshan. Japan assures Soviet government that C. E. Railway is uninjured and warns that advent of Russian troops will cause trouble.
November 21.—Secretary Stimson in a memorandum to Japanese Ambassador Debuchi expresses the view that the occupation of Tsitsihar threatens dangerous complications.
In line with suggestions from Japan, the League Council sets to work on a draft resolution for a commission of three to five members to consider the general problem of Sino-Japanese relations.
November 23.—Dr. V. W. Koo appointed Nanking Minister of Foreign Affairs. In view of projected Japanese advance against Marshal Chang Hsuehliang’s base at Chinchow, southwest of Mukden, council makes strong representations to Japanese government and receives assurances that the attack will not be executed. Council proposes creation of a neutral zone at Chinchow under supervision of nine foreign representatives there, with halting of Japanese advance and withdrawal of Chinese forces to a point south of the Great Wall.
November 28.—Japanese army of about 10,000 reported halted about sixty-six miles north of Chinchow, midway in its advance from Mukden.
Japanese foreign office criticizes distorted press version of Secretary Stimson’s comments on Chinchow advance. This is followed by mutual explanations and retraction.
December 1.—Chinese forces reported in movement northward from Chinchow and southward against Tsitsihar.
Council’s draft resolution creating a neutral commission is forwarded to Tokyo and Nanking for approval.
The Sino-Japanese Treaties.—In the November 21 issue of the Saturday Review of Literature, Mr. V. A. Yakhontoff, former Russian war minister, reviews four recent books in Manchuria and Japan; Japan’s Special Position in Manchuria; The International Legal Status of the Kwantung Territory; Japanese Jurisdiction in the South Manchuria Railway (all published by the Johns Hopkins Press); and Japan: An Economic and Financial Appraisal (Brookings Institute, Washington, D.C.). The review has the following comment on treaties between China and Japan:
Through the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-95 and the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-05 Japan acquired a foothold in Manchuria and later annexed Korea. Her next step was made during the World War, when she attempted to settle the entire Manchurian problem in her own way by serving on Peking the since famous “Twenty-one Demands,” by which, if legally accepted, China would have become a vassal state of Japan. The result was the so-called “Treaty” and “Notes” of 1915, which were signed by Yuan Shih-k’ai under duress, but never were ratified by the Chinese Parliament. Hence their validity is questioned and remains at least dubious. Under protest of the powers Japan decided to yield on certain of her demands, but never withdrew those pertaining to the extension of the lease of Kwantung and the South Manchuria Railroad to ninety-nine years. China has officially declared that “the treaties and notes of 1915 exist but should be abrogated.”
Possibilities.—Speaking in New York early in November, Dr. Raymond L. Buell, research director of the Foreign Policy Association, was reported as follows on the possibilities of the Manchurian situation:
If Japan has not evacuated Chinese territory outside the railway zone by November 16, China could invoke Article 15 of the Covenant, rather than Article 11, and notify the league that she regards the acts of Japanese troops in Manchuria as creating a state of war. If Japan—once China takes this stand—insists on continuing acts of war despite the recommendations of the council, Japan will become the recognized aggressor.
It is my belief that some system of settlement will be found before the aggressor stage is reached. If this proves impossible, however, the League Council and the United States will inevitably have to consider the question of sanctions. If the league and the United States should solemnly warn China and Japan not to go to war, and one of these States is allowed to disregard the warning with impunity, all the laboriously built-up peace machinery, whether it be the League of Nations or the Anti-War Pact, will have been destroyed, and in the future no aggressive power will pay any attention to peace declarations from the outside world because it will know that these admonitions are innocuous.
Dr. Buell said, however, that he did not think extreme measures, such as an economic blockade, would be necessary.
UNITED STATES AND LATIN AMERICA
Foreign Minister Grandi in Washington.—Diplomacy’s new method of personal contacts was carried a step further by the visit to the United States of Italy’s Foreign Minister Dino Grandi, which extended from the middle to the end of November. Signor Grandi’s official activities were completed during his first three days in Washington. In this period he was given an informal dinner by Secretary Stimson, with Senator Borah, Senator Reed of Pennsylvania, and Secretary of the Navy Adams among the additional guests; was the guest of honor at a state dinner at the White House; and on November 18 spent the morning in conversation with President Hoover and Secretary Stimson. The statement subsequently issued was less definite than the one following Premier Laval’s visit, merely indicating the range of the discussions, expressing the belief that the understandings between the principal naval powers ‘‘can and should be completed,” and ending with a pious hope for results from the February arms conference. The statement in its essential part follows:
The discussions have embraced subjects of such importance as the present financial crisis, intergovernmental debts, the problems surrounding the limitation and the reduction of armaments, the stabilization of international exchanges and other vital economic questions.
We believe that the existing understandings between the principal naval powers can and should be completed and that the general acceptance of the proposal, initiated by Signor Grandi, for a one-year’s armaments truce is indicative of the great opportunity for the achievement of concrete and constructive results presented by the forthcoming conference for limitation of armaments.
South American Elections.—During October and November both Peru and Argentina took the essential step toward ending their provisional revolutionary governments by holding regular presidential elections. In Peru Colonel Luis Sanchez Cerro, for a time provisional president after last year’s revolution, was easily elected and took office early in November. In Argentina the contest was simplified by the action of provisional President Uriburu in eliminating the candidate of the Radical party, numerically the strongest in Argentina, just before the election. This candidate was former President de Alvear, and his candidacy was declared unconstitutional on the technically correct ground that a full six-year period had not elapsed since he left the presidency in 1928. In these circumstances the election, as was to be expected, resulted in a victory for the conservative coalition candidate, General Augustin P. Justo, a henchman of President Uriburu.
DEBTS AND REPARATIONS
Germany’s Capacity to Pay.—Following ten days of negotiations with the French government, Germany on November 19 took the initiative in reopening the reparations and debt problem by a formal request to the Bank of International Settlements for a commission to consider her capacity, at the end of the Hoover moratorium year next July, to resume payments under the Young Plan. In deference to the French point of view, Germany did not indicate in her formal request that the commission should go beyond the matter of reparations, but in a covering letter it was made clear that such an inquiry would not be regarded as adequate unless it considered all of Germany’s obligations, both public and private.
On the question whether public or private debts shall take priority, there is certain to be divergence between England and the United States, on the one hand, who are Germany’s chief private creditors, and France, where the view is strongly maintained that reparations shall not be sacrificed for loans contracted since the war.
In accordance with Germany’s request, the Bank of International Settlements at once appointed a commission, on which Mr. Walter W. Stewart of New York was the American representative, and the first meeting of which was to be held at Basle on December 7. Concommitantly with this commission, another group of bankers, of which Mr. Albert Wiggin of the Chase National Bank of New York was a member, was to meet in Germany to consider plans for the conversion and extension of Germany’s short-term obligations of $1,300,000,000, the present arrangement concerning which expires on February 29.
Nationalist Gains in Germany.—Over reparations arrangements with Germany hangs always the danger that a triumph of the Nationalists may bring a change of government and repudiation of war debts. In local elections during October the Hitlerites made large gains, and in the elections on November 15 for the Hessian Diet they secured twenty-seven out of seventy seats, more than doubling their votes at the expense chiefly of the smaller middle parties. The tendency in Germany is apparently toward a division into four major party groups, Nationalists, Centrists, Socialists, and Communists, and a disintegration of the small parties of the center which have heretofore formed the government coalition.
ARMAMENT PROBLEMS
Year’s Truce Proclaimed.—Following acceptances from some fifty governments, the one-year truce in new armament construction, based on the proposal of Foreign Minister Dino Grandi of Italy at the September League Assembly, was declared in effect from November 1, 1931. The agreement affects only new construction, not building already under way or contracted for, and is regarded as having little practical significance save as creating a favorable atmosphere for the February arms conference. From France, however, came the suggestion that Italy, with her seven new cruisers under way, was naturally an advocate of the proposal.
French Resent Peace Meeting.— Much hostility was aroused in France by the action of the world organization of peace societies in holding a two-day meeting at Paris on November 26-27, the apparent purpose of which was to arouse favorable sentiment for the official limitation of armaments conference in February. Cardinal Verdier of Paris declined to send a message to the meeting “because of its political nature,” and the French press condemned it as designed to force France into a policy counter to her interests. At the final gathering on November 27, nationalists agitators howled down all the speakers, including Viscount Cecil, former Ambassador Alonson B. Houghton, Senator Borah, whose talk came over the radio, and the chairman himself, former Premier Edouard Herriot.
BRITISH COMMONWEALTH
British Emergency Tariff.—Early in November Premier MacDonald announced his new British cabinet, in which the premier himself is also First Lord of the Treasury, Stanley Baldwin President of the Council, Neville Chamberlain (Conservative) Chancellor of the Exchequer, and Sir John Simon (National Liberal) Secretary for Foreign Affairs. One of the first acts of the new ministry after the opening of Parliament, November 10, was to put through an emergency tariff measure giving the Board of Trade power for six months to raise duties on imports up to 100 per cent. The board thereupon issued on November 25 a list of twenty-three groups of manufactured articles on which duties were increased 50 per cent. These included many kinds of goods in which American manufacturers compete in the British markets, though estimates indicated that only 5 per cent of American exports to England would be directly affected. There were indications of retalatiory measures on the continent, President Hindenburg on December 1 granting Chancellor Bruening of Germany full power to increase import duties as deemed advisable. The British duties will not be levied on imports from the dominions.
Dominions Equality Bill.—The last step towards establishment of the British dominions on an equal and virtually independent basis was the passing by the British Parliament in November of the “Statute of Westminster,” which does away with appeals to the judicial committee of the British Privy Council and removes the last vestiges of control over the dominions by the British Parliament. This was practically accomplished by the Balfour declaration adopted by the Imperial Conference of 1926, but the present statute gives it a more definite sanction. Efforts were made, but in vain, to protect Irish minorities by amending the statute so as to prevent changes in the present constitution of the Irish Free State.
Labor Upset in Australia.—The Australian Labor government, after twenty-five months in office under Premier J. H. Scullen, was defeated November 25 by a vote of 37 to 32. New elections were set for December 19. It was expected that the outcome would be a victory for the anti-labor parties, in line with the Conservative triumph in England. When the depression hit Australia there appeared at first a strong sentiment for repudiation of foreign debts, but the government in the end adopted a policy of vigorous retrenchment and respect for outside obligations. Premier Scullen had planned a referendum on constitutional reforms which would have abolished the separate state parliaments, but with the new elections this will go by the board.
India Conference Ended.—With ominous threats of renewed civil disobedience, the round-table Indian conference in London ended on December 1. In closing the conference, Premier MacDonald declared that though little had been accomplished, and the minorities problem remained a stumbling block, his new government would hold to the Labor government’s promises of a federal India. Special committees would be appointed to work on the new constitution, the framework of which has already been completed, and a later general conference would be called in India. Prior to the end, the Moslems, Hindus, and Sikhs, at swords’ points on other issues, joined in a declaration that a measure of self-government for the provinces would be in no way acceptable, without federal self-government at the same time.
SPAIN
Constitution Adopted.—On December 1 the constitutional Cortes in Spain completed its work on the new constitution, converting Spain into a “republic of the workers of all classes.” The new document provides universal suffrage, equality of sexes, a single-chambered parliament, property laws making possible the nationalization of essential industries, and disestablishment of the Catholic church. Election of president was set for December 8, with former Provisional President Alcala Zamora as the probable choice.