LIMITATION OF ARMAMENTS
The Herriot Proposals.—Hopes for real progress toward limitation of land armaments, and especially for bringing Germany back into the general arms conference, appeared at the first of November to hinge largely on the new plan which Premier Herriot was to present to the arms bureau at its November meeting. When the bureau began its session this plan was still in process of revision and was set forth only in general terms. On the surface the plan seemed to have an appeal for Germany in that it would place all European nations on the same plane, do away with regular armies, and allow each nation to provide for its defense needs by the training of short-term citizen militias. To this, however, were attached conditions most difficult of fulfillment: (1) the creation of an international or inter-European army to which each European power would be asked to supply a contingent; (2) the request that the United States “should grant guarantees of security that she herself has envisaged.” There were other elements in the preliminary outline of the plan, such as international supervision of armaments, compulsory arbitration agreements, and pledges to fulfill all obligations under Art. XVI of the League Covenant; but the conditions given made it clear that there are almost insuperable obstacles to the acceptance of the French plan. However changed in appearance, the French position remains very much the same—security first, then reductions.
Germany Avoids Parleys.—Efforts to break the armament deadlock by bringing Germany into a conference of the chief European powers at London early in October proved a failure, though it was France that finally objected to the conditions set by Germany for attendance at the London meeting. These amounted practically to the requirement that the restrictions of the Versailles Treaty should be definitely set aside. Germany proved equally unwilling to be drawn into parleys of the major powers at Geneva in connection with the November meeting of the arms bureau, in adherence to her resolution to have nothing further to do with armaments discussions until her equality of status was assured.
American Efforts for Naval Accord.—In a determined endeavor to clear the way for progress in the arms conference, the American delegate, Mr. Norman H. Davis, visited London and later Paris in October, seeking primarily to arrange for naval reductions below the levels established by the London treaty. Agreement between England and the United States on such reductions was brought within the range of possibility, contingent upon success in bringing France and Italy into full acceptance of the London treaty provisions and securing naval adjustments on the part of Japan. Chiefly to stimulate progress in this direction, President Hoover released a statement on Navy Day to the effect that should disarmament moves fail, the American navy must be brought up to its treaty quota. The United States approved in October the League proposal for a four-month extension of the one-year truce in construction of armaments agreed upon in November of last year.
UNITED STATES AND EUROPE
Delegates to World Economic Conference.—The American delegates to the preparatory committee of the London Economic Conference arrived in Geneva in time for the first meeting of the committee which opened on November 1. The American representatives are Mr. Edward J. Day, Director of Social Science for the Carnegie Foundation, and Professor John H. Williams of Harvard, accompanied by three special advisers from the U. S. Departments of State and Commerce. It is hoped that the main conference may open in London early in January, but prospects of real accomplishments are held to depend largely on whether the disarmament conference, meeting at the same time, gives promise of success or failure.
War Debt Payments.—The question whether France and England were to make the war debt payments due to the United States on December 15 remained still unsolved at the close of October. Directly questioned on the subject, Premier Herriot declared that France would pay—that she would “make no move that would put her in a bad light before any tribunal.” Later he drew a distinction between commercial and political obligations, and said that on the latter concessions must ultimately be sought. The commercial debt referred to arose from French purchases of American war supplies for $410,000,000 after the close of hostilities. These were later resold for about $270,000,000. The debt thus incurred was merged with the earlier war loans in the settlement of 1926. That France is in a position to make the December payment is obvious from the fact that $800,000,000 in gold has been withdrawn by her from the United States during the present year.
LEAGUE ACTIVITIES
Budget No Smaller.—In its closing session on October 13 the League Assembly finally approved the $6,500,000 budget for the coming year, a slight increase—$20,000—over that of last year. Efforts to reduce expenses were dropped when the Swiss delegate pointed out that it cost less to run the league than to run the Swiss canton of Geneva. More than a third of the nations of the league, however, are two years behind in their dues.
The League Council on the same date formally approved the nomination of Jos. A. Avenol of France to succeed Sir Eric Drummond as secretary general.
League Guidance in Liberia.—The league plan to stamp out slavery in Liberia, as worked out by a special league commission, was published by the U. S. State Department on October 12. This provides for a “chief adviser” of Liberia, appointed by the League Council with the approval of the President of Liberia, who is to give counsel in matters of administration and report at least quarterly to the league. The country is divided into three administrative districts, each likewise supervised by a league-appointed commissioner and deputy. The U. S. government referred this plan for approval to the Finance Corporation of America, understood to be a subsidiary of the Firestone Rubber Co., which since 1926 has financed the Liberian government in return for rubber concessions.
BRITISH COMMONWEALTHS
Anglo-Irish Break.—During his work as chairman of the League Council at Geneva and later on his way home, President De Valera of the Irish Free State came in contact with British officials, and arrangements were made for another conference over Anglo-Irish difficulties, to be confined primarily to the question of annuity payments and problem of finance and trade. Like previous meetings, the conference left matters worse than before. England would not go beyond the suggestion of arbitration by an empire tribunal, and President De Valera brought up counter claims dating back to 1800 and totalling £400,000,000. He subsequently remarked that England, while seeking concessions in her war debts, was insisting sharply on full payment of debts “neither morally nor legally due.” Both nations took immediate steps to raise their tariff walls higher than before. In Ireland the lines between the Cosgrove and De Valera parties are drawn more sharply than ever, and if another election is held the issue is sure to be that of an Irish republic, to which British feeling appears already resigned.
Anglo-Soviet Trade Pact Ended.— In order to carry out the clause of the Ottawa treaties against “dumping” of goods by countries with state-controlled labor, the British government in October gave the Soviet Republic six months’ notice of the termination of the Anglo- Russian trade pact of 1930. This, however, does not mean the end of trade relations, for negotiations for a new treaty have been begun. At the opening of Parliament on October 18 the MacDonald Ministry also introduced at once the enabling bills to put into effect the new tariffs and preferences arranged at Ottawa. The new Canadian tariffs, giving free entry or preferential rates to over 200 articles of import from England, went into effect October 12.
GERMANY
German Elections.—At the time when the Institute Proceedings went to press, Germany was again preparing to cast ballots on November 6 in the fifth general election within eight months’ time, beginning with the presidential elections of last March. Naturally there was some decline of interest in the results, especially since there appeared no better prospect of a clean-cut majority for either the government or its Hitlerite opposition. Despite this uncertainty, Chancellor von Papen declared in campaign speeches that he would have ready for the next Reichstag the draft of a new federal constitution, which would provide a strong upper house as a check on “one-sided Reichstag legislation dominated by party interests,” and also an “authoritarian” ministry to stand like a rock above party politics.
Decision in Prussia Case.—The federal supreme court at Leipzig on October 25 rendered its decision in the appeal of Bavaria and Baden, as well as the Braun Ministry of Prussia, against the action of the federal government in taking over the administration of the Prussian state. The decision was in the nature of a compromise which left the actual administration in the hands of the federal commissioner but restored other executive prerogatives to the former ministry. It appeared unlikely that such a division of functions could be worked out prior to another Prussian election.
LATIN AMERICA
Chaco Peace Prospects.—After a succession of reverses in the Chaco campaign, Bolivia at the close of October communicated to the committee of neutrals in Washington her willingness to negotiate with Paraguay on the basis of the neutral proposals of October 12. These provided for a truce based on three points: (1) separation of troops, (2) demobilization of reserves, and (3) reduction and limitation of military forces, with pledges to settle the territorial dispute by arbitration. Whether Paraguay, after having waged a successful campaign, will still be ready to return to the status quo ante, is another question; but the approach of the rainy season is certain to shift the dispute temporarily from the held to the council board.
Bolivia’s peace acceptance followed a determined drive of Paraguayan troops, which, after capturing Fort Boqueron in September, extended their gains to a dozen smaller posts and finally besieged Fort Arce, the chief base of Bolivia’s central army. This surrendered October 23 after three days investment, and the Bolivian troops then fell back to a line of defenses some 40 miles southward.
During this campaign the Bolivian government suffered a series of cabinet changes, resulting at the close of October in a coalition ministry of Republicans and Liberals, which the Socialist Republicans refused to join and which seemed unlikely to win firm support in Parliament.
Peru-Colombia War Threat.—October brought no lessening of the danger of War between Colombia and Peru arising from the Peruvian seizure of the town of Puerto Leticia on the upper Amazon. Colombia rejected Peruvian proposals of arbitration on the ground that the town lay in a district clearly ceded to her by treaty and its reoccupation was purely a matter of domestic public order. Peru on the other hand mobilized forces on the frontier and warned that the moving of Colombian troops into the area might have dangerous consequences. In the course of the month Colombia undertook the raising of war funds by a patriotic loan, and Peru decreed a 21 per cent levy on the annual incomes of all residents.
Recognition for Chile.—Prompt recognition in October of the Oyanedel government in Chile by both the United States and Great Britain gave a clear indication that the difficulties of the previous socialistic experiments under Señor Davila and others had been partly at least due to an unsatisfactory attitude toward foreign interests. Despite further insurrections, the Oyanedel government kept control through the election on October 30, which resulted in a victory for the candidate of the center parties, former president Arturo Alessandri.
Mexico Deports Papal Legate.—The church war in Mexico again flamed up following the Pope’s encyclical of September 30, which, while condoning forced obedience to government restrictions, severely condemned the persecution of Catholics in Mexico and especially the limitations placed on the number of priests. The new Roderiguez government replied with a counterattack, and the Mexican chamber passed a resolution calling for the expulsion of Archbishop Leopoldo Ruiz y Flores, Apostolic Delegate. On the next day the archbishop was put aboard an airplane bound for the American border.
NEAR EAST
Iraq Joins League.—Formal admission of the kingdom of Iraq into the League of Nations took place at Geneva on October 3. In the Anglo-Iraqi Treaty of 1930, which ended the British mandate over the territory and anticipated Iraq’s entry with the league, provision is made for a 25-year alliance between the two countries, with a British military mission, British air bases at the port of Basrah and elsewhere, and some measure of British supervision of the Iraqi judicial system and foreign affairs. British interests will retain control of most of the oil production. Approval of the termination of the British mandate was given by the League Permanent Mandates Commission in January, 1932, with the proviso that Iraq join the league.
A Pan-Arab Conference is to be held this year at Bagdad, in which one topic of discussion will be the union of Iraq and Syria, now a mandate of France.
New Name for Arab Kingdom.—The name of King Ibn Saud’s Arabian domain, hitherto known as the kingdom of Hedjaz and Nejd, was changed in October to Saudi Arabia, incorporating the name of its present ruler. The land includes the major portion of the Arabian peninsula, comprising some 800,000 square miles and a population of about 5,000,000. Much has been done by King Ibn Saud toward the establishment of agricultural communities, motor transport, and elementary schools.
FAR EAST
Banditry in Manchuria.—Far from suggesting progress toward stabilization in Manchuria, reports during the autumn have indicated increased areas subject to banditry or actually under rebel domination. According to some estimates more than half of the country, including Jehol, Barga and adjacent districts in the northwest, and vast districts in north central and eastern Manchuria are in the hands of Chinese rebels opposed to Japan and the new government of Manchoukuo. Early in October some 270 Japanese and a dozen Koreans were taken captive at Manchouli in the northwestern uprising led by General Hsu Ping-wen. Japanese countermeasures in this direction were hampered by the risk of complications with Russia. The extensive closing-in movement undertaken by Japanese forces in the mountainous areas east of Mukden, though at first giving promise of success, were made difficult by the character of the country, the approach of winter, and scattered rebel counter-attacks along the railways.
At Changchun in mid-October it was stated that a shuffling of railroad control had been arranged by which the Man- choukuo government would take over all former Chinese-owned lines including the Chinese half interest in the Chinese East- fern Railway. Manchoukuo will also assume nominal control of the South Manchurian Railway, while at the same time the Japanese will gain the right to extend this line anywhere in the country.
Chinese Civil Wars.—Aside from the widespread activities of “communist” rebels in China, civil warfare on a large scale has been going on in Shantung and in Szechwan province in west central China. In Shantung the Nanking government made efforts to mediate in the conflict between its provincial chairman Han Fu-chu and General Liu Chen-nien, war lord at Chefoo, but General Han resigned from his official position and at the close of October was still maintaining hostilities. In Szechwan some 300,000 troops and a dozen leaders were involved in the struggle between General Lui Wen-liu and his nephew Liu Hsiang, one effect of the withdrawal of these forces being to expose the upper Yangtze valley to banditry.
Action on Lytton Report.—According to reports from Tokyo, the Japanese proposal, when the Lytton report on Manchuria came up for league action in November, would be to suggest a policy of waiting until it is seen how the new state develops. If such a policy were adopted Japan would be quite ready to admit league representatives to watch and report on developments. But it is the Japanese contention that the solution offered by the Lytton commission would be quite unworkable in the present governmental chaos in China. Meantime there were evidences also that Japan was seeking both at Moscow and Paris for support in the League Council discussions, with the possibility of asking for Russian representation when the question came up for consideration. Whether an American representative would join these discussions was not decided at the close of October, but strong support from America would seem to be necessitated by our previous part in the work of the commission and in bringing about intervention.
ARTICLES ON WORLD POLITICS
October “Foreign Affairs.”—The October (1932) number of Foreign Affairs, celebrating the tenth anniversary of this quarterly publication of the Council in Foreign Relations, contains articles of unusual number and interest, chiefly reviewing the history of the past decade in various fields. The leading article “On Liberty,” by the Italian philosopher Benedetto Croce, foresees the time when the present nationalism will give way to a larger outlook, and Italians, Germans, etc., “will rise to becoming Europeans.” “The Future of Economic Nationalism,” by Sir Arthur Salter, prophesies that, despite the present swing toward higher tariffs, “the whole tendency of modern industrial development is toward large-scale organizations” pushing beyond national frontiers. George Wickersham’s article on “Political Factors in American Foreign Policy” points out a number of recent incidents indicating a trend away from our traditional policy of isolation [a policy which, as a study of our diplomatic history might show, has been as often honored in the breach as the observance].
Other articles of special interest include “Free Trade or Isolation” (an argument for lower tariffs), by G. B. Roorbach; “Ten Years: Retrospect and Prospect” (foreseeing an era of increased political control of economic problems), by Walter Lippmann; “Progress Toward Disarmament” by Allen W. Dulles; and “The East, a Survey of the Post-War Years,” by Sir Frederick Whyte.