IN JUNE, 1923, the Navy Department convened a board for the purpose of evolving a method for the equalization of the promotion of staff officers with the promotion of officers of the line. The board was advised that the following principles v/ere held to be fundamental: That staff officers should have the same promotion, or the* same opportunity for promotion as officers of their own time in the line; that qualified staff officers should be advanced at the same time as their qualified contemporaries in the line are promoted; that staff officers should suffer the same hazard of non-advancement, and the same penalty for failure to be advanced as may be suffered by their contemporaries in the line, this parity of opportunity and penalty to be maintained from the date of entry into the service to the date of separation therefrom. The Equalization Bill was drawn up in accordance with the foregoing principles.
At the present time all staff officers, except chaplains, are now promoted to and including the rank of lieutenant commander, with their running mates in the line. The Equalization Bill applies the same rule to chaplains and extends the principle through all selection ranks. That is, the. bill definitely assigns a running mate to each staff officer who is now in the service and provides for the definite assignment of running mates to staff officers who may hereafter enter the service. When the running mates of staff officers or line officers junior to said running mates are selected for promotion, all such staff officers immediately become eligible for selection. A fraction of the staff officers who thus become eligible may be promoted. This fraction is arrived at in such a manner that it represents the opportunity or the chance of the line officer contemporary.
The first difficulty, naturally, in a scheme of this kind was a specific and just rule or rulings for the assignment of running mates to staff officers now in the service. Generally speaking, all staff officers now in the service were, in accordance with laws then in force, assigned on entry into the service a line officer with or next after whom they took precedence. These laws have been changed or modified from time to time, a proof, doubtless, that they did not give satisfaction.
It would have been ill advised, however, to enter into the phase of correcting what may or may not have been just and correct at the time that each staff officer now in the service entered the service. That is a vexatious question and one that is less profitable to tinker with than it is to let alone. A balance of a sort was established when each staff officer entered the service and that balance, in spite of various rulings on, interpretations of, and amendments to the laws themselves, has on the whole been maintained at the present time. It was, therefore, determined as a guiding principle that the line officer with or next after whom a staff officer, then or eventually, took precedence upon original entry into the service, should be designated as that staff officer’s running mate. Under the terms of the bill, one or two exceptions were necessary; one being the case of the medical officers appointed prior to March 4, 1913, who, under a strict application of the “law in force” rule, would have been assigned as running mates, line officers junior to the line officers assigned as running mates to medical officers appointed subsequent to March 4, 1913, and, therefore, junior in the medical corps to medical officers appointed prior to March 4, 1913. Further, it was necessary to provide for changes in running mates to accord with the various mishaps which have occurred to staff officers or to the running mates of staff officers. The same provisions effecting changes in running mates are made applicable to staff officers who may hereafter lose numbers or be passed over and to their line officer running mates who may hereafter be passed over or lose numbers.
Having decided upon the method of assigning running mates, it was next necessary to determine in what manner the chance of the line officer for selection should be arrived at, so that upon application of this chance to staff officers they would have precisely the same opportunity for promotion at precisely the same time. The chance of line officers for selection to higher grades from 1916 to the present date is easily computed. That chance is sixty-one per cent for captains to rear admiral, ninety-one per cent for commanders to captain and ninety-one per cent for lieutenant commanders to commanders. The bill provides for an equalization board which delivers this chance at once to all of those staff officers whose running mates are in a higher rank than themselves.
The determination of the line officer’s chance for the future is a matter which is very much more involved. Nearly all of the line officers, at the present time, in selection ranks are eligible for selection to the next higher rank. For instance, the names of nearly all lieutenant commanders are sent to the line selection board as being eligible under the law for selection to commander, but how much chance has the junior lieutenant commander under such conditions? Also, if there are thirty vacancies to be filled, how much chance has number sixty on the list of lieutenant commanders?
After some study with problems such as the above, it was decided that there was no way of figuring a line officer s chance until the line officer had been actually selected or passed over by the board; then his chance before that particular board is a simple matter of mathematics. However, line officers have been passed over and will be passed over in the future and after being passed over, have been selected and sometimes have been selected after being passed over several times. Therefore, the result of one line board does not give any particular line officer’s exact chance for promotion. Further, the line board may go down several numbers to select up an officer who, but for selection on that occasion, would otherwise retire for age in grade. The next year it may return and pick up by seniority the officers so passed over.
It was finally decided that the exact chance of any line officer would be most nearly approximated by averaging the actual chance of line officers before four successive line boards. Each line officer’s chance was thus 'determined to be the proportion between the number of officers selected by four successive line boards, to the number of officers considered by the boards, considered in this case, to be interpreted to mean not merely eligible, but that the officer so considered has either been passed over or promoted.
This proportion established by four successive line selection boards will be applied to staff officers whose running mates are promoted or passed over by the last preceding line board. Perhaps an illustration would be clearer:
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) |
A | C | C | C | C |
B | D | D | D | D |
C* | G | G | G | G |
D* | H | H | H | H |
E | J | J | J | J |
F | A | E | E | E |
G* | B | I | I | I |
H* | E* | L | L | L |
I | F | M | M | M |
J* | I* | O | O | O |
| K | A | F | F |
| L* | B | K | K |
| M* | F* | P | P |
| N | K* | R | R |
| O* | N | T | T |
|
| P* | A | B |
|
| Q | B* | N |
|
| R* | N* | S |
|
| S | Q | V |
|
|
| S* | Y |
|
|
| U | A |
|
|
| V* | Q |
|
|
| W | U |
|
|
| X | W |
|
|
| Y* | X |
In the table, column one shows the action of the fourth preceding line board. That board considered officers from A to J, selecting C, D, G, H, and J; passing over A, B, E, F, and I. Each line officers chance before that particular board was fifty per cent. The action of the third preceding line selection board is illustrated in column two. This board considered officers from A to O, selecting five and passing over five. Each line officer's chance from A to O before this board was fifty per cent. Similarly for the second preceding line selection board. The action of the last preceding line selection board is illustrated in column four and the combined action of all four line boards is illustrated in column five. The last preceding line board considered officers from A to Y, promoting five and leaving five. Staff officers whose running mates range from U to Y become eligible as a result of the action of the last preceding line selection board. Each such staff officer has delivered to him as his opportunity for selection twenty-twenty-fifths, or eighty per cent, as illustrated in column five.
The line officer B’s chance, who was passed over by three boards and picked up by the last board, is also twenty-twenty-fifths, and A’s chance, who was passed over by four boards, is likewise twenty-twenty-fifths, or eighty per cent. Therefore, each staff officer becoming eligible when Y is selected, enjoys the same chance as the line officer who was passed over by four boards and not promoted, or as the line officer passed over three times and then promoted. The assumption here is that U, W and X, or those line officers who were first passed over by the last preceding board, will have in the future the chance which line officers A and B have already had. Therefore, a staff officer becoming eligible for the first time receives in full the chance of the line officer who was first considered by the line selection board at a date four years prior to the date of the staff officer becoming eligible. This chance is assumed to be the chance which will be built up in the future by the line officers of his own immediate time, i. e., U, W and X. Thus, a staff officer gets at once the total chances which accrue to a line officer after four selection boards. It is not believed that a fairer scheme could be devised.
The action of four line selection boards was taken not only to insure that the staff officer should get the full opportunity which should be his but also because the average thus obtained would modify the possibly erratic action of any particular line board. Further, promotion conditions in the line when only four boards are averaged, will be quickly reflected in the staff corps, which is, of course, highly desirable.
The following tables show the estimated effect on the corps as indicated. Present humps in the rank next below are indicated in a given rank by an increase in figures from the present authorized number to the number which would result from the equalization bill which appears under columns 1923 and 1924. These humps must be worked completely through the ranks above before an average condition is reached. The average condition is a distribution in the staff corps in the same proportion as is the distribution in the line, namely one per cent rear admirals, four per cent captains and seven per cent commanders. This plainly cannot be obtained in any of the corps until the humps in those corps which have lagged behind are worked through the various grades, nor until the promotions in the line overtake those corps which are ahead. This will naturally take several years because in some corps there exist humps in the rank of lieutenant commander and this hump will continue to appear successively in the ranks of commander, captain and rear admiral until all such present lieutenant commanders have become separated from the active list.
The significance of the figures may be demonstrated. For instance, in 1930 the line will have fifty-five rear admirals. These rear admirals will be spread over an eight year age period and will be from fifty-six to sixty-four years of age. They will have graduated from the Naval Academy in the classes of 1889 to 1896, inclusive An estimate of officers of flag rank in the medical corps for the year 1930 is fifteen. That means that in the period from 1889 to 1896, medical officers entered the service in the proportion of fifteen medical officers to fifty-five line officers. In that same year there will be 200 captains of the line spread over a six year period from fifty to fifty-six years of age. During the six year period when these captains entered the service, medical officers entered in the proportion of seventy-four medical officers to every 220 line officers.
At the present time there are nearly 200 captains in the line. Fifty-two medical officers now on the active list have their running mates or line contemporaries among these 200 line captains. Ninety-one per cent of the fifty-two medical officers, or forty- seven, are entitled to have the rank of captain in the medical corps. Thirty already have that rank. The bill calls for the promotion of seventeen more officers of that rank.
Now if it is assumed that when the 200 line captains have disappeared from the active list as captains, seventy of them will have been promoted to rear admiral, the percentage of those promoted is seven-twentieths. Then of the forty-seven officers of the rank of captain in the medical corps, seven-twentieths, or sixteen, would be advanced to the rank of rear admiral.
Some of the effects of the bill are given herewith. The senior lieutenant commander of the construction corps under the proposed bill will not be promoted to the rank of commander in the construction corps until his running mate in the line is promoted to commander. Also the junior commander in the construction corps will mark time in his present rank and position until his running mate, who is a lieutenant commander in the line, is promoted to commander, when he will thereafter go up in precedence through the rank of commander with that running mate and be promoted to the rank of captain with him. All commanders of the chaplains corps whose running mates are lieutenant commanders will mark time in their present position until those running mates attain the rank of commander, when they will go up through that rank in precedence with their running mates and will be promoted to the rank of captain when their running mates have been promoted thereto. Thus, the bill compels officers of those corps wherein promotion has been more rapid than in the line, to mark time until their running mates in the line have overtaken them.
On the other hand it affords the same opportunity for promotion to staff officers whose promotion has lagged behind the promotion of their running mates in the line as has already been enjoyed by their line running mates.