It was about time. As the Navy continued to experience difficulties in meeting operational readiness and interdeployment training requirements, Admiral Jay Johnson, Chief of Naval Operations, took a stand: "Our forward-deployed carrier battle groups and amphibious ready groups are combat-ready and performing magnificently, as has been vividly demonstrated in recent events in the Balkans and the Arabian Gulf," he remarked at the June 1999 Current Strategy Forum at the Naval War College. "But," he cautioned, ". . . today's force is a rotational force, and I continue to be deeply concerned about the readiness of units that are not forward deployed. To maintain the tip of the spear readiness, we are exacting a toll from our non-deployed ships and squadrons. Since the last Quadrennial Defense Review, I've said ... that a force of 305 ships—fully manned, properly trained, and adequately resourced—would be sufficient for today's requirements within acceptable levels of risk. But ... the mounting evidence leads me to believe that 305 ships [are] not likely to be enough in the future."
During an October 1999 House Armed Services Committee hearing on military readiness, Chairman Floyd Spence, (R-SC) commented, "What has not changed ... is that despite significant congressional increases in the defense budget this year and over the past five years, serious mismatches still exist between the requirements imposed on the services and the resources being budgeted to address them."
Nowhere is this more evident than with the Navy's plans for Tomorrow's Fleet, and, as Admiral Johnson has noted, the "Navy-After-Next." Unless the budget is increased significantly, and soon, the danger is great for the fleet of 2020 to be no more than a shadow of the 346 ships called for by the first Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) in 1997. With a QDR reprise slated for 2001, the time is right to make the case for more ships and aircraft and more capable ships and aircraft in the Navy of the Information Age.
Force Levels
Admiral Johnson and other senior Navy leaders have all but admitted that the Navy runs an unacceptable risk by going below 300 ships. Numbers matter—quantity has a quality all its own. The numbers of Navy ships, airplanes, sensors, weapons, and munitions "must be increased," a senior naval officer commented early this year. "Inadequate numbers of platforms have, frankly, left us under-represented in key parts of the world that are important to America. We continue to meet our commitments primarily by drawing upon in-theater forces, rather than requiring additional deployments of units that have just returned from or are beginning to work up for deployments. But we have been able to do this only by working our people harder and running our aircraft, ships, and equipment down."
There is growing evidence that the nation's naval forces are stretched too thin, and ship and aircraft readiness is in doubt. Aircraft carrier underway time during deployments, for example, has risen steadily from historical norms. The carrier home-ported in Japan has had unplanned deployments to the Persian Gulf twice in the past two years to cover commitments in that volatile region.
"1999 was the first year since Desert Storm in which five carriers and their air wings had been committed to combat operations," Rear Admiral Mark Gemmill, the head of the carrier resources and requirements branch (N885) in the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, commented in a late fall 1999 interview.
"Both Enterprise [CVN-65] and T.R. [USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71)] were in two theaters during their deployments, providing much-needed air power in the Adriatic as well as the [Persian] Gulf." Indeed, the Navy's carrier-based aircraft, which accounted for just 8% of the air power of Operation Allied Force in Yugoslavia, contributed to 30% of the confirmed kills with precision weapons, Vice Admiral Dan Murphy, Commander U.S. Sixth Fleet, told a Senate hearing in mid-October.
But 1999's success story was not without risks, as the Navy's rotational carrier force continues to struggle with operational gaps, often at critical times. The transfer of the Enterprise from the Adriatic to the Persian Gulf shortly before the Kosovo crisis escalated in mid-March 1999 ". . exposed the risk of our time-sharing approach to naval deployments," Murphy explained. "We simply did not have the numbers of ships needed for both areas." Although analysis indicates that the U.S. Navy needs 15 big-deck carriers (17 if 100% carrier coverage in all key areas of operation were to be satisfied), the Navy has been challenged to get by with only 12. Figure 1 shows the Navy's plan for maintaining the minimum essential force of 12 carriers.
A 1998-1999 surface combatant study determined that as many as 139 multimission warships would be required to satisfy strategic guidance for future conflicts and meet other peacetime presence and crisis-response needs; the 1997 QDR, however, resulted in a programmed force of no more than 116 surface combatants. (Figure 2 shows surface combatant projections based on 1997 QDR assumptions.) The Navy needs more vertical-launching system (VLS)-equipped surface warships that can provide robust area and theater-wide defense against both cruise missiles and theater ballistic missiles. Such a capability also would provide what Rear Admiral Michael Mullen, Director, Surface Warfare (N86), has called "An offensive naval force that conducts precision land attack, a force that accurately and precisely delivers timely ordnance in direct support of the land battle—any time, anywhere—as a key element of joint, allied, and coalition forces."
Finally, while the first QDR specified a notional force of 50 nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs), the 1999 Joint Chiefs of Staff Attack Submarine Study concluded that 68 SSNs are required to meet operational requirements. "We [made] a considered decision in the QDR last time that 50 attack submarines was within the acceptable levels of risk," Admiral Johnson told the Senate Armed Services Committee in late October. "The serious question we're asking ourselves now is, is it still within that level based on three-plus years of decreasing [strength] ... and also the utilization of the force. It's very busy, as I said before. So, my sense is yes, I think a higher number will be appropriate." Figure 3 shows that current submarine building plans cannot sustain the constrained-QDR figure much beyond 2015.
The U.S. Navy needs a focused and expanded program to maintain naval superiority well into the first half of the 21st century, Admiral Johnson has told the Congress that the Navy needs an increase of $6 billion per year, in addition to pay and retirement increases, to restore non-deployed readiness to acceptable levels and to recapitalize and modernize to meet future warfighting requirements. The fiscal year 2000 budget provided the pay and retirement increases but, as the CNO told both the House and Senate Armed Services Committees last fall, "We were left with approximately $17 billion in unfunded requirements across the future years defense plan. These unfunded requirements include modernization programs and critical infrastructure support. Our current plan for ships and aircraft (see Tables 1 and 2), for example, shows the maximum investment possible at this time, which will not be sufficient to sustain the 1997 QDR force structure." In fact, it does not even begin to deal adequately with the bow wave of investments needed to meet future commitments and requirements.
What follows is an overview of several key programs that Navy leaders believe will provide the foundation for naval superiority in the 21st century if the resources are made available.
Surface Warfare
Ticonderoga (CG-47)-class Cruiser Conversion Program: The 27 Ticonderogas have combat systems centered on the Aegis weapon system and the SPY-1 multi-function, phased-array radar. The Cruiser Conversion Program is a mid-life warfighting capability upgrade for these ships. The program will give the fleet:
- Theater ballistic missile defense (TBMD) capability
- Extended-range land attack in support of the Marine Corps' concept of Operational Maneuver from the Sea (OMFTS)
- Area air defense commander (AADC) capability
The 22 VLS Aegis cruisers (CGs-52 through -73) are scheduled to begin conversion in fiscal year 2004. The five remaining non-VLS Baseline I Aegis cruisers (CGs-47 through -51) are candidates for this upgrade. A congressionally supported feasibility study is underway but the Navy lacks funding.
Arleigh Burke (DDG-51)-class Aegis guided-missile destroyers: Twenty -eight Arleigh Burke-class destroyers have been delivered through fiscal year 1999; another 23 are under contract and in various stages of construction. Six additional ships are budgeted for fiscal years 20022003; the class will total 57 ships. Congress approved a multiyear procurement of 12 ships in fiscal years 1998 through 2001 at a savings of $1.4 billion compared to a conventional acquisition strategy.
Congress also has authorized the Navy to extend this current multiyear procurement to include the remaining destroyers. The extension, however, is contingent upon the availability of advanced procurement funding in fiscal year 2001. Three Arleigh Burkes were approved in fiscal years 1999 and 2000, and the Navy has requested three more in fiscal year 2001. In mid-January 2000, Rear Admiral Mullen floated a draft plan to continue DDG-51 acquisition through fiscal year 2008, five more than in the current plan.
DD-21 Land-Attack Destroyer: This is the Navy's first surface combatant founded entirely upon post-Cold War strategic thinking and 21st-century operational concepts. Armed with an array of land-attack weapons including the Advanced Land-Attack Missile (ALAM), Tactical Tomahawk (TacTom) and the Advanced Gun System (AGS) firing Extended Range Guided Munitions (ERGMs), DD-21 is designed to provide sustained and precise firepower at long ranges to support forces ashore and to conduct independent attacks on land targets. It is pushing the envelope in improved joint connectivity, advanced computing systems, reduced signatures (radar, infrared, acoustic, magnetic) and active signature-management techniques, integrated electric drive and advanced electronic switching systems, and optimal manning areas.
In addition to specifying a crew size objective of 95, the program office also is engaged in identifying cost efficiencies in related shore-based and at-sea infrastructures. The ship has a procurement cost objective of $750 million—all costs in fiscal year 1996 dollars—for the fifth ship in each shipyard and an operating and support (O&S) cost objective of $2.700 per hour under way (about one-third the O&S cost of a conventional Surface combatant). The Navy plans to pick the winning design and award a contract by 2001.
On 6 January 2000, Secretary of the Navy Richard Danzig announced that the DD-21 program would be the first to incorporate innovative technologies and systems for integrated electrical generation and propulsion systems. (See "Origins of the All-Electric Navy," Proceedings, October 1999, pages 50-54). Following lead ship award in 2004, the Navy plans to acquire 32 DD-21s at a rate of three ships per year, each with an expected service life of 35 years. The new destroyers will replace retiring Spruance (DD-963)-class destroyers (31 ships commissioned from 1975 to 1983) and Oliver Hazard Perry (FFG-7)-class frigates (51 ships commissioned from 1977 to 1989).
Navy Area/Theater-Wide Ballistic Missile Defense
The system is designed to provide for an integrated multimission antiair warfare and TBMD capability. Central to its evolution is the nation's $45-billion investment in the Aegis fleet and Standard Missile (SM). The Navy's Area program modifies the Aegis SPY-1 radar to allow detection and tracking of theater ballistic missiles (TBMs). Changes include special high-energy waveforms and improved signal processing. These are required for the SM-2 Block IVA missile to engage small, high-speed, short- to medium-range TBMs during their terminal phases of flight. The Navy Area TBMD Program has deployed a user operational evaluation system termed Linebacker on two Aegis cruisers—the Lake Erie (CG-70) and the Port Royal (CG-73)—which have been key to the development and validation of TBMD tactics, techniques, and procedures, as well as risk reduction in the development of the final integrated Area TBMD capability. A limited number of production SM-2 Block IVA missiles is scheduled to begin delivery in fiscal year 2003; acquisition of the Block IVA continues to be constrained by available funding. The fully integrated Area TBMD capability is scheduled for fleet introduction in fiscal year 2003. The ultimate objective is to deploy 79 Area TBMD-capable ships. Twenty-one Area TBMD-capable Aegis cruisers and destroyers are scheduled to be available by the end of fiscal year 2005.
The Navy's Theater-Wide (NTW) defense builds upon the Area capability and includes modifications to the Aegis weapon system and the integration of the SM-3 lightweight exo-atmospheric projectile (LEAP) with a kinetic-kill vehicle (KKV) warhead. NTW will be capable of intercepting threat ballistic missiles in the ascent, midcourse, and descent phases of their exo-atmospheric trajectories. Coupled with the Navy Area TBMD capability, this should provide defense-in-depth to U.S. and allied forces, vital political and military assets, population centers, and large geographic regions against the threat of short-, medium-, and long-range ballistic missile attack. The Navy's NTW capability will pace the growing ballistic missile threat by providing a Block I capability against medium-range ballistic missiles and a follow-on Block It capability against medium- and long-range ballistic missiles.
Submarine Warfare
Advanced Swimmer Delivery System (ASDS): This is a dry mini-submarine, 65 feet long, operated by a two-man crew, which can carry a Navy Sea-Air-Land (SEAL) squad or other special operations forces. The small submersible will launch either from a host submarine, much like the deep submergence rescue vehicle (DSRV), or from the well decks of amphibious ships to conduct long-range clandestine insertions and extractions in support of special operations missions. This system eliminates the extended exposure to cold water inherent with in-service wet submersible swimmer delivery vehicles and should reduce some of the physical and mental stress for its occupants. The U.S. Special Operations Command has funded procurement of all planned ASDSs. The first system completed integration late in fiscal year 1999 and will be home-ported with SEAL Delivery Team One in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Systems also will operate with SEAL Delivery Team Two in Little Creek, Virginia.
Seawolf (SSN-21)-class Nuclear-Powered Attack Submarine: The Seawolfs provide open-ocean sea-control against present and future submarine threats and have significant multimission littoral warfare capabilities. The design emphasis is on high submerged speeds and deep operating depth, with significantly improved machinery quieting, combat and sensor systems, and payload capacity compared to the improved Los Angeles (SSN-6881)-class attack submarines [SSN-751 and later units]. The Seawolf was commissioned in July 1997, and the USS Connecticut (SSN-22) in December 1998. The third submarine of the class, the Jimmy Carter (SSN-23), is under construction and will be a one-of-a-kind multimission platform modified with additional volume and services to accommodate advanced technologies and systems for naval special warfare, tactical surveillance, and mine warfare operations. The still-classified details of this modification and the advanced technologies support the Defense Science Board's 1998 recommendations for improved payload capabilities and a flexible interface with the undersea environment without sacrificing current Seawolf class multimission warfighting capability. The SSN-23 is scheduled for delivery in 2004.
Virginia (SSN-774)-class Nuclear-Powered Attack Submarine: The Virginia class, until recently referred to as the new attack submarine (NSSN), will provide advanced acoustic technology and sustain minimum essential attack submarine force levels as the Los Angeles (SSN-688)-class attack submarines leave the fleet. The Virginias will perform open-ocean, antisubmarine, and antisurface missions, and have been enhanced specifically for multimission littoral and regional operations. These submarines are being fully configured to conduct offensive and defensive mining operations, mine reconnaissance, special operations forces insertion/extraction, battle group support, intelligence-collection and surveillance missions, sea-control operations, and land attack. Further, the Virginias will be configured to adapt easily to special missions and emergent future requirements.
The 30-ship SSN-774 program is the first major program to implement fully acquisition-reform initiatives. Modular techniques permit construction, assembly, and testing of systems prior to installation in the hull, thereby reducing costs, minimizing rework, and simplifying system integration. The submarine's modular design also will facilitate technology insertion in both new construction and back-fit into existing ship. Advance procurement for the lead submarine was funded in fiscal year 1996, and was fully funded in 1998. The first four submarines will be built under an innovative teaming arrangement between General Dynamics' Electric Boat Corporation and Newport News Shipbuilding. Newport News will build the bow, stem, sail, and selected forward sections for each submarine. Electric Boat will build the hull sections, the engine room modules, and the command-and-control system operating spaces. Electric Boat will assemble and deliver the first and third ships; Newport News the second and fourth. Construction of the Virginia began in 1998, and the second submarine of the class, Texas (SSN-775), in 1999. The third and fourth ships of the class are scheduled to begin construction in 2001 and 2002. Virginia-class acquisition continues throughout the Future Year Defense Program, limited to one ship per year when balanced within current resources.
Unmanned Undersea Vehicles (UUVs): The Navy's first UUV priority is to develop and deploy a covert mine reconnaissance capability: the near-term mine reconnaissance system (NMRS). It carries an integrated forward-looking sonar for obstacle avoidance and initial search capability with an improved AQS14 side-scan sonar for target classification and has maximized the use of commercial off-the-shelf systems in a vehicle capable of launch and recovery from the torpedo tubes of Los Angeles-class submarines.
The long-term mine reconnaissance system (LMRS) is scheduled to enter service in fiscal year 2003 to provide clandestine minefield reconnaissance. It will replace the near-term system, and will provide a significantly improved capability, including submarine launch and recovery as well as autonomous operation endurance of more than 40 hours. Potential enhancements are being reviewed to expand capabilities in the areas of precision underwater mapping and navigation and more cost-effective rechargeable energy sources.
Farther in the future, the multimission UUV program, an outgrowth of the longterm system, is scheduled to enter development during fiscal year 2004. This system is envisioned to build upon the earlier design and mission by providing plug-and-play sensor packages for missions such as electro-magnetic and electro-optical intelligence/surveillance/reconnaissance plus indications and warning), tactical oceanography, and remote ASW tracking.
Expeditionary and Mine Warfare
Wasp (LHD-1)-class Amphibious Assault Ship: The multipurpose amphibious assault ship has a secondary mission of sea control. Amphibious forces are the centerpiece of a balanced naval expeditionary capability and provide rapid power projection ashore. Six ships have been delivered, and one additional ship, the Iwo Jima (LHD-7), is scheduled to be delivered in late 2000. Congress in fiscal year 2000 included initial funding for an eighth ship. The Navy has delayed full-funding until fiscal year 2005 because of stringent resource constraints.
San Antonio (LPD- 17)-class Amphibious Transport Dock: The LPD-17 is designed to meet Marine air-ground task force (MAGTF) lift requirements in the emerging operational maneuver from the sea (OMFTS) and ship-to-objective maneuver (STOM) concepts of operations. She is a medium-size (approximately 25,000 tons full load), medium-speed (greater than 20 knots, sustained), diesel-powered ship (four turbocharged diesels, two shafts, and two outboard rotating fixed-pitch propellers), 684 feet in length, with a beam of 105 feet, and an estimated crew of 363.
She will carry approximately 720 troops, and will have 25,000 square feet of space for vehicles, 36,000 cubic feet of cargo space, medical facilities (24 beds, two operating rooms), aviation facilities (organizational-level maintenance for a mix of helicopter and tilt-rotor aircraft), and two landing craft air cushion (LCAC) vehicles. Space and weight margins have been included in the design to incorporate additional systems, including a VLS for a variety of defensive and offensive weapons that are presently unfunded.
The 12 ships in the current program will provide the functional replacement for 36 aging amphibious lift ships. Perhaps as many as eight Wasp- and five Tarawa (LHA-1)-class amphibious assault ships and 12 LPDs provide the foundation for meeting the assault-echelon lift requirements of 2.5 Marine expeditionary brigade (MEB) equivalents (reaching the stated lift goal of 3.0 MEB equivalents continues to be frustrated by available funding) during wartime and sustaining approximately three forward-deployed Marine expeditionary units (MEUs) in peacetime.
Mine Warfare
The Navy's mine research-and-development programs are focusing on the need to improve effectiveness joint expeditionary warfare scenarios. The current QuickStrike family of bottom mines will be enhanced by incorporating the Mark 71 target detecting device, which provides advanced algorithms for ship detection, classification, and localization against likely threats, e.g., quiet diesel-electric submarines, mini-submarines, fast patrol boats, and air-cushion vehicles. In the near term, exploratory research will pursue multi-influence (acoustic, magnetic, pressure, seismic) sensors, data fusion of multiple influences, advanced sensors for bottom-mine applications, and mid-water depth mine concept evaluation.
Engineering development efforts include advanced mine algorithms for ship detection, classification, and localization; development of a remote-control-for-mines program; and concept evaluation and requirements generation for the next-generation naval mine—the littoral sea mine (LSM). The in-service Mark 67, the Navy's sole submarine-launched, multipurpose (antisubmarine and anti-surface) mobile mine, is being phased out of the inventory, and U.S. Navy and the Royal Australian Navy have begun a cooperative development program to field its replacement: an improved submarine-launched mobile mine (ISLMM). It will be an innovative modification of early variants of the Mark 48 heavyweight torpedo that will give fleet units a clandestine capability to plant minefields from a safe standoff distance throughout the littorals of the world. Characteristics include increased range and precision placement accuracy, course-change capabilities, low-cost maintenance, and greater load-out for the delivery submarine. Armed with two warheads, each mine will be able to attack two separate targets. The Mark 48based delivery vehicle will be compatible with all current and future submarine torpedo rooms and tubes. The remote-control-for-mines and the LSM programs are scheduled to begin research and development in 2000 and 2001, respectively. The Mark 71 target-detecting device reached Milestone III in 1995, but procurement has been delayed for lack of funding; procurement is now scheduled to begin in 2001. The ISLMM Cooperative project will enter a three-year engineering, manufacturing and development phase beginning in fiscal year 2000, followed by a three-year procurement phase beginning in 2002.
Assault breaching programs: These encompass several projects to counter the threats to naval forces from current and projected future land and naval mines and obstacles in shallow water and surf-zone approaches, plus craft-landing zones ashore for amphibious assault craft and air-cushion vehicles. Systems being developed for explosive clearance in this challenging environment include the shallow-water assault breaching (SABRE) system, distributed explosive technology (DET) system, and the explosive neutralization pre-planned product improvement program.
- SABRE is a rocket-launched explosive line charge launched from an LCAC that is designed to clear assault lanes in the ten- to three-foot region of the surf zone.
- DET is a rocket-launched explosive net, also launched from an LCAC, designed to clear the remainder of the lanes in the 3-feet to shore region of the surf zone.
- The product improvement program upgrades SABRE and DET. It will provide increased LCAC survivability and system accuracy through development of a fire control system, LCAC autopilot, and extended-range rockets.
SABRE and DET are scheduled to be fielded beginning in 2001. Production of the improvements will begin in 2004.
Naval Aviation and Aircraft Carriers
Nimitz (CVN-68)-Class and CVNX Nuclear-Powered Aircraft Carriers. The Navy continues to acquire Nimitz-class carriers to replace the aging conventional, oil-fired carriers on a one-for-one basis, thereby sustaining aircraft carrier battle group force levels at the 1997 QDR target. Eight Nimitz-class carriers have been delivered through 1999; the Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) is scheduled to deliver in fiscal year 2002. Since the mid- to late-1960s, however, when the baseline CVN-68 design was finalized, the Navy's carrier force has not benefited from an aggressive research-and-development (R&D) program to insert leading-edge technologies and systems into subsequent hulls. For this reason, in 1993 the Navy established a future sea-based air platforms working group to investigate the requirements, available technologies and systems, and needed R&D to ensure that a new class of aircraft carriers could capture elements of the revolutions in military and business affairs. Based upon these initial studies, the Navy established a program to develop an evolutionary-design next-generation nuclear carrier, CVNX, that would reach the fleet about 2013, in time to replace the USS Enterprise (CVN-65), the Navy's first nuclear-powered carrier, as she reaches 52 years of age. The Navy is crafting an evolutionary program that will incorporate warfighting improvements and acquisition, operations, and support cost-saving measures at an affordable pace, over three consecutive hulls beginning with CVN-77X, a modified-repeat of the CVN-76. Initial investments will be made in new integrated combat systems for CVN-77X, and an advanced nuclear plant and electrical distribution system, along with other improvements, for CVNX-1 and follow-on carriers.
The principal design objectives for the CVNX class are to reduce total ownership costs significantly during each carrier's 50-year service life and to provide a flexible infrastructure that will facilitate the insertion of new warfighting capabilities as they evolve. The administration's fiscal year 2001-2005 Future Years Defense Plan includes funding for CVN-77X to replace the USS Kitty Hawk (CV-63) in 2008, and to serve as a transition ship to the CVNX carriers. A multiyear R&D program also is under way for CVNX, the first of which is scheduled to be requested in fiscal year 2006 for delivery in 2013. Follow-on, evolutionary-enhanced CVNXs are planned for construction starts at roughly five-year intervals beyond 2006.
EA-6B Prowler: The electronic warfare aircraft played a key role in suppressing enemy air defenses during Operation Desert Storm in 1991 and last year's Operation Allied Force in Kosovo. Only 123 of these aircraft are available, and the decision to retire the Air Force EF- IIA Raven aircraft and assign all Department of Defense radar jamming missions to the Prowler adds to the significance of the EA-613 in joint warfare. The Kosovo supplemental and fiscal year 2000 congressional additions resulted in procurement acceleration for several EA6B enhancements, including Band 9/10 jamming pods, universal exciter units, and night vision devices. In recognition of the strain placed on the EA-6B fleet by simultaneous Kosovo and Iraqi no-fly zone enforcement operations, funding was authorized for conversion of several test and evaluation aircraft to full operational status, resulting in the creation of an additional expeditionary squadron in fiscal year 2003. The Block 89A upgrade program (which is expected to achieve an initial operational capability (IOC) in fiscal year 2000) will address structural and supportability problems associated with aging aircraft, and includes numerous avionics improvements for safety of flight and joint interoperability. Later improvements to the Prowler's AN/ALQ99 tactical jamming system, including the improved capabilities (ICAP) III upgrade, which is entering development and is expected to reach IOC early in fiscal year 2004); new high- and low-frequency transmitters, integrated improved data modem, and continuing structural enhancements, will help to ensure that the EA-613 remains the world's premier tactical electronic warfare platform for the near-term. Finally, studies are under way to recommend a platform to begin replacing the EA-613 in fiscal year 2010.
F/A-18E/F Super Hornet: Naval aviation leaders note that fleet introduction of the Super Hornet in 2000 will provide critical growth capacity, weapon bring-back improvements, survivability enhancements, and range/payload improvement. Ultimately, single-seat F/A-18Es will replace older F/A- I 8s while the two-seat F/A-18F will replace F-14A/B/Ds. The F/A-18 E/F program concluded its three-year engineering, manufacturing and development phase in May 1999 and completed operational evaluation in November 1999.
The seven test aircraft on site at Naval Air Station Patuxent River, Maryland, have flown more than 5,000 flight test hours as of November 1999, and have been tested to Mach 1.75 and to altitudes in excess of 50,000 feet. Air Test and Evaluation Squadron(VX)-9 and Fighter-Attack Squadron (VFA)-122 air crews have flown more than 1,400 operational test flight hours. Congress has approved multiyear procurement of the F/A18E/Fs beginning in 2000 contingent upon a successful operational evaluation. This decision should save the taxpayers more than $720 million, compared to a traditional acquisition strategy. F/A-18E/F weapon system development continues in parallel with airframe operational testing. The advanced targeting forward-looking infrared (ATFLIR) and shared reconnaissance pod (SHARP) programs are on pace to be delivered in time for the first Super Hornet deployment in 2003. Subcontractor competition was completed in November 1999 for development and production of the active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar that is scheduled to attain IOC in 2006.
Joint Strike Fighter (JSF): The program is on track to develop and field a tri-service family of next-generation strike aircraft. With an emphasis on affordability, the family-of-aircraft concept allows a high level of commonality while meeting unique U.S. service and allied needs. The United Kingdom is a collaborative partner in the program; Denmark, Norway, The Netherlands, and Canada are associated partners. This coalition approach to should produce significant savings when compared to the costs of separate programs. The government and industry team is converging on a design concept that, when coupled with other technology "building blocks," will result in continuing U.S. technological superiority at an affordable price. The focus of the JSF effort is to reduce the costs of developing, producing, and owning these aircraft. In November 1996, the designs from Lockheed Martin and Boeing were selected to compete in the JSF Concept Demonstration Phase; first flights are scheduled this year. This phase is designed to lead to an affordable and low-risk transition to the engineering and manufacturing development phase in fiscal year 2001. The first operational naval aircraft, the U.S. Marine Corps short takeoff/vertical landing (STOVL) variant, is scheduled for delivery in 2008.
V-22 Osprey Tiltrotor: The Osprey has been designed as the medium-lift replacement for the aging CH-46E and CH53D helicopters. The design incorporates advanced technologies in composite materials, survivability, airfoil design, flyby-wire controls, digital avionics, and manufacturing. The MV-22 is capable of carrying 24 combat-equipped Marines or a 10,000-pound external load, and has a strategic self-deployment capability of 2,100 nautical miles with a single aerial refueling. The V-22 has completed developmental testing and the program is nearing the end of the EMD phase. Nineteen low-rate initial production aircraft have been procured in three lots to support operational evaluation and initial fleet introduction. The final low-rate initial procurement lot of 11 aircraft is being procured in fiscal year 2000. The 2001 budget requests 16 aircraft. Once in full-rate production, the procurement rate will increase to approximately 30 aircraft per year by fiscal year 2003. The Marine Corps requirement is for 360 aircraft. The total budgeted buy for the Marine Corps, Navy and Air Force is 458 aircraft.
The Course Ahead?
Perhaps more troubling for tomorrow's fleet is not the prospect for continued parsimony in budgets, the constraints on force structure, ordnance and spare parts, and critical equipments, and the near-constant high-tempo operations that keep more than 50% of the fleet under way at any one time. Rather, it is the conclusion of an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) that "America's military is facing potentially serious rifts in the fabric of its culture, with attending damage to future operational effectiveness."' A variety of external pressures, including the draw-down of military forces following the end of the Cold War, the high tempo of peacetime humanitarian and crisis-response operations, and economic competition for people in a tight labor market have contributed to morale and readiness problems, and have spurred increased ardor, particularly in the Navy, to attract and retain good people.
The challenges increasingly will be difficult to overcome in what is expected to be a continuing period of fiscal austerity. The CSIS report concluded: "Simply put, the leadership of the Armed Forces has not yet adjusted to the reality that there are insufficient operating resources and personnel to match missions."
If, however, service leaders have grasped the lesson, the time is right to make the case more forcefully than has been the case thus far. Tomorrow's fleet hangs in the balance.
Dr. Truver is Executive Director, Center for Security Strategies and Operations, Techmatics/Anteon Corporation, Arlington, Virginia.