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We asked the commanders of the world’s navies: “What will be the most important naval development—tactical, strategic, technical, or political—in the next ten years?” Twenty commanders responded in last month’s Proceedings', this month, two more give their predictions.
Admiral Vural Bayazit, Turkish Naval Forces—After the collapse of the Soviet systems and the Warsaw Pact, the widespread expectation was for what can only be described as “continuous global peace.” Unfortunately, this expectation gave way to an unstable nationalism and discrimination, social changes, increasing regional conflicts, and weapons of mass destruction and high technology, and many uncertainties.
It is difficult to state that the nations of the world—and international organizations—are completely ready to face this situation. The concepts of crisis management, peacekeeping, and peacemaking must be redefined to suit the new situation. The deployment of coalition forces from NATO and non-NATO countries means that many technical, tactical, and operational problems must be solved to bring about combined operations. In my opinion, during the next decade, navies will be deeply engaged in the solutions to these problems.
Naval forces will play a significant role in suppressing crises and, therefore, will need to develop new concepts with regard to blockading operations. The requirements to evacuate refugees, provide logistical support to land units, and keep the critical sea lanes open will increase the need for interservice cooperation.
One of the major threats in the next ten years will be the sea mine. The Persian Gulf War proved that vast numbers of mines probably will be used in future conflicts. Consequently, mine-countermeasures operations will be a high priority for naval units operating in the coastal waters of regions of conflict. Moreover, it is likely that the cost-effective mine will be used by terrorists—in violation of international conventions—with the aim of provocation.
In the coming years, the use of computers by navies will continue to expand. With their capability to handle vast amounts of data, systems capable of making threat assessments and determining the proper response will be placed m many ships. Increased use of computers will enhance the efficiencies of link systems and fire-control systems as well.
Also, the development of high-speed (Mach 3-4), shorted medium-range antiship missiles will complicate ships’ antimissile defense problems.
Major advances will be made in the propulsion, endurance, and silencing of conventional submarines. This "fill make the submarine a most favorable platform for smaller navies and result in an increased shallow-water threat.
These changes will require the cooperation, coordination, interoperability, and logistical-support problems among NATO navies and non-NATO navies to be solved ’h the coming years.
oceedings / April 1993
Vice Admiral Romuald Waga, Polish Navy—Recently initialed and published by the President of Poland, Security Policy and Defense Strategy of the Republic of Poland unequivocally describes the direction that will be taken with regard to providing the internal and external security of the country. The Navy—along with the other services— now faces a thoroughly different situation with several implications. Poland’s drive for political, economic, and military integration with Western Europe and NATO—as well as to keep an U.S. military presence in Europe—will be another underlying factor in many decisions. To achieve these goals, the initiatives of the Navy will be directed toward ensuring full compatibility of its composition, equipment, armament, and organization with respect to the requirements of securing Polish territorial waters and allowing for effective international cooperation.
Using as a basis the national security policy and the defense strategy of the Republic of Poland, the process of defining the future shape, directions, and development priorities has been concluded. Among other things, the plan foresees the reactivation of the Naval Air Force and the construction of several multipurpose vessels. Within the next few years, the future of these planned changes will be determined by several factors—the most important being the political development of Europe and the determination of Poland’s role in it.
My experience proves that although many politicians act as though they understand military issues fully, they lack concrete knowledge or firm intentions. Resolving these political issues might result in a decision to equip the Navy with relatively costly systems, on a technological level equivalent to the systems incorporated by other Baltic Sea fleets.
Of course, another condition in fulfilling our goals is improvement in Poland’s economy. This second element will have a decisive influence.
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