From May 3 to June 3
UNITED STATES AND LATIN AMERICA
Arrangements for Debt Arrears.—At the close of May the American State Department signed definite agreements with Great Britain, Italy, Belgium, and other European nations regarding the payment of debt arrears due to the United States as a result of the Hoover moratorium. The new agreements call for annual payments over a ten-year period, at 4 per cent interest, and merely put into final form arrangements made when the moratorium went into effect last August. They have no bearing on the question as to when either payments of arrears or normal payments are actually to be resumed—a matter necessarily left for consideration at the June debt conference at Lausanne. One effect of deferred payments has been to increase the British debt burden as a result of the decline in exchange. The British payment of $183,900,000 due in 1933—under the old parity about £38,000,000—would amount now to nearly £50,000,000.
The “Hoover Doctrine.”—Acting Secretary of State William R. Castle, Jr., in a speech on May 4 at the American Conference on International Justice, gave the name “Hoover Doctrine” to the policy of non-recognition of territorial gains made by nations in violation of the terms of the Kellogg-Briand Peace Pact, and declared that it “put teeth into the pact” without the use of force. Mr. Castle described this policy as preferable to the sanctions of force implied in the League Covenant, or to the plan of a boycott or embargo to bring offending nations to terms. Mr. Castle did not go on to explain how a policy of non-recognition—with force absolutely precluded—would necessarily prove a fatal barrier to the exploitation of seized territory, or how it would operate when a part of a country, such as Manchuria, sets up a nominally independent regime. It was action on the part of outside nations, at the time of the separation of Spanish provinces in America, that called forth another famous American doctrine of quite different import.
Marines for Nicaragua Elections. —The question of sending more marines to Nicaragua has again been raised in connection with American supervision of the next Nicaragua elections, with the special dangers involved in sending small detachments or single officials into remote districts. Despite Secretary Stimson’s insistence on complete evacuation by the end of this year, temporary re-enforcements will doubtless be necessary, though a compromise plan may be adopted calling for a more limited degree of supervision. Conferences between Secretary Stimson and Rear Admiral C. H. Woodward, supervisor of the elections, were completed on May 27, and Rear Admiral Woodward left for Nicaragua.
According to despatches of May 25, seventeen Sandinistas were killed by air bombs from a U. S. marine plane in an action between the Nicaraguan guard and rebel forces on May 20, near the Neptune mine on the Atlantic coast.
Arrest oe Cuban Plotters.—Alleged evidence of another plot against the present administration in Cuba led during the latter part of May to a renewal of political arrests on a wide scale. Former President Mario Mendocal, a leader in the uprising of last August, took temporary refuge in the Brazilian legation.
Peru Troubled by Reds.—Early in May the Peruvian State Department opened negotiations with other South American countries looking toward a general conference for concerted action against an epidemic of communistic agitators and propaganda, seemingly widespread among the Latin nations. The special fears of the Peruvian government have been aroused by the revolutionary activities of the “Apra” opposition party, allegedly dominated by communistic doctrines which have filtered in from Mexico and other sources. On May 8 revolutionaries of this faction gained control of the two cruisers constituting the Peruvian Navy, but the vessels were soon retaken and eight ringleaders in the mutiny were put to death.
Finding evidence that the Mexican Minister at Lima was implicated in the spread of communistic ideas, the Peruvian government declared him persona non grata, whereupon Mexico suspended diplomatic relations.
Mediation in Chaco Dispute.—The commission of neutrals which has been holding meetings in Washington to draw up a new plan for settlement of the Chaco dispute between Paraguay and Bolivia completed its work in May and sent a draft of a ten-point agreement to the two nations chiefly concerned. The draft proposes a settlement by direct negotiations to be begun within six months’ time. In the last direct negotiations, in 1928, the two countries attempted to reduce the problem to one which could be turned over to neutral arbitration, but failed because of inability to fix on a mutually acceptable limitation of the territory in dispute.
GERMANY AND CENTRAL EUROPE
Fall of Bruening Cabinet.—Disagreement between President von Hindenburg and Chancellor Bruening over matters of internal policy led to the fall of the Bruening Cabinet in Germany on May 30, less than three weeks after the Reichstag had given the cabinet a vote of confidence which seemed to insure its continuance until after the critical debt negotiations at Lausanne. It was quite certain, however, that the new ministry which was set up would take an even stronger stand for the wiping clean of the reparations slate than was taken under Bruening.
In his decision to break with Bruening, President von Hindenburg was influenced largely by his objections to the Chancellor’s plans for parceling out rural estates to small holders and for increased taxation on the salaries of government employees; but he was guided also by a feeling that the Socialist-Centrist government no longer had adequate popular or army support, and should include further representation from the parties of the Right. Though the gains of the National Socialists (Hitlerites) in the last elections were also a large factor in Bruening’s downfall, this party was not yet ready to organize a new government, and the task was turned over to Lieutenant Colonel Franz von Papen, prominent in the conservative wing of the Centrist party, and well known in America for his activities as German Military Attaché before our entry into the World War. The new ministry, conservative and capitalistic in complexion, is almost certain to be short-lived, with prospects of another general election before autumn, when the Hitlerites count on securing a clear mandate to take over control.
In Prussia, the meeting of the new Diet on May 25 was marked chiefly by a free fight between the Hitlerite and Communist members. The Hitlerites as the leading party elected one of their number as president of the Diet, but the Diet adjourned until June without agreement on the formation of a new ministry.
New Austrian Government.—The liberal Buresch Ministry in Austria resigned on May 6 following the unfavorable results of the April elections, and was succeeded by a government under Dr. Engelber Dollfuss, Minister of Agriculture in the former cabinet. At the opening of the new Parliament on May 27 Chancellor Dollfuss could give no assurance of securing the financial assistance which Austria has been seeking through the League Financial Commission, and outlined a policy apparently involving an embargo on foreign debt payments and export of gold.
Germans Win Memel Elections.—Despite coercive activities on the part of Lithuania, the German party in the autonomous district of Memel came out of the recent elections with its twenty-four seats in the Diet still intact and prospects of an even larger majority. Germany now expects that France and Great Britain as signatories of the Memel Protocol will insist that Lithuania restore full autonomy, and revoke her coercive measures.
Danube Commission.—To seek a solution of the financial difficulties of Austria, Hungary, Bulgaria, and the other states of southeastern Europe, the League Council in its May session set up a mixed commission of political representatives and financial experts. The League Financial Committee named six members of the commission, including Norman H. Davis of the United States.
BRITISH COMMONWEALTHS
Terms for Independent Iraq.—At its meeting in May the League Council approved a draft declaration of the terms which the former British mandate of Iraq must fulfill in order to join the league and become a fully independent nation. The sixteen articles in the draft relate chiefly to protection of religious and racial minorities, and assurance of legal and trade rights to foreigners. The move for termination of the British mandate in Iraq was made at the request of the British government, following a treaty with Iraq in 1927. The council now insists that Iraq enter the league as a matter of self-protection.
Irish Senate Considers Oath Ban.—On May 19 the Irish Dail Eireann by a vote of 67 to 77 passed the bill removing the oath of allegiance to the Crown from the Free State constitution. At the end of May it was still under consideration by the Irish Senate, where it is certain to be subjected to weakening amendments, if not defeat. Meantime the de Valera government is preparing a new bill completely ending appeals from Irish courts to the judicial committee of the British Privy Council.
In spite of a possible break with England, President de Valera announced his intention to have the Free State represented at the imperial trade conference at Ottawa in July, and to go himself as head of the delegation.
FRANCE AND SOUTHERN EUROPE
Murder of President Doumer.—President Paul Doumer of France was shot and mortally wounded on May 7, while opening a book sale in Paris, arranged by an association of war-veteran authors. The assassin, Dr. Paul Gorgulov, was an insane Armenian from the Russian Caucasus, whose apparent aim was to embroil France and Soviet Russia. Five shots were fired, two of which wounded the president in the head and chest, while others inflicted slight wounds on those who stood near him. President Doumer at the time of his death was seventy-five years of age and had been in French politics since 1888, serving as governor of Indo-China (1897-1902), minister of finance in two of Briand’s cabinets, and president of the Senate (1927-31). As his successor at the head of the state, the Chamber and Senate acting together as a National Assembly elected the president of the Senate, Albert Le Brun, a former mining engineer prominent in French political life since the war.
Left Cabinet under Herriot.—The French run-off elections of May 8 confirmed the earlier results, giving the left parties in the Chamber a total of about 354 seats, to 250 for the parties of the right, out of a total of 615. M. Herriot’s Radical Socialist party secured 168 seats, the Socialists 130, and M. Tardieu’s Left Republican party only 72. The new ministry organized by M. Herriot early in June was based on a coalition of the left parties, rather than a union of the moderate left with the center. The attitude of the new government is expected to be somewhat less uncompromising in matters of arms limitation, reparations, and other points of foreign policy. It will favor nationalization of all munitions industries and reduction of military expenditures. Yet in view of recent nationalistic tendencies in Germany, Herriot can hardly afford to depart far from the traditional French policy of security first.
Spain Grants Catalonian Autonomy.—The long agitated question of self-government for the Catalonian provinces of Spain was apparently in the final stages of settlement at the close of May when Premier Azana, with the support of practically the whole Cortes behind him, pledged his government to measures granting virtual self-rule not only to Catalonia but also to Andalusia and Valencia, under a system somewhat similar to the American federation. Foreign and military affairs will be under the central government, with local control of taxation, education, language, and police.
FAR EAST
Japanese Premier Assassinated.—On May 15 Premier Ki Inukai of Japan was killed in a renewed outbreak of terrorism, carried out by a small group of young agitators drawn from the Army and Navy. The premier himself was shot down by four men in military uniform; at the same time agitators raided a police headquarters, bombed the home of Count Makino, and attacked the Seyukai party offices and other establishments. Seventeen men, including five young naval officers and several former cadets of the military school, were immediately involved in the attacks. Behind them, however, was a far wider association of intense nationalists, impatient at the corruption of party government and eager for a more aggressive conduct of foreign affairs. Curiously enough, judging by reports from Japan, these violent attacks on politicians and the present political system have not aroused the general horror that would have been felt in countries more inured to democratic rule.
Following the murder of the Premier the whole Seyukai cabinet resigned, and after consultations with Prince Saionji, last of the elder statesmen, the Emperor called on Admiral Viscount Makoto Saito to organize a new cabinet. Admiral Saito, now seventy-three years of age, had served as governor of Korea after his retirement and was head of the Japanese delegation at the Geneva Naval Conference. As a man of military antecedents, yet liberal-minded in political views, he admirably supplied the need for a cabinet head not too closely identified with any political faction. The new cabinet, though not outstanding in personnel, was regarded as more liberal than the last, and was strengthened by the unexpected retention of General Araki as Minister of War. Admiral Saito himself took over the post of foreign affairs.
Early in June the Japanese Parliament was convened temporarily to approve a $61,000,000 bond issue to cover the costs of Manchurian operations during the next half year, the costs of the compaign since last September 18 having already amounted to another $62,000,000.
Shanghai Evacuation.—Japanese evacuation of the occupied areas around Shanghai, in accordance with the armistice terms signed May 5, began promptly and was doubtless expedited by the need of fresh troops for the campaign in Manchuria, to which the 10th and 14th Divisions were at once sent. Complete withdrawal into the foreign concession and adjacent areas was expected before the end of June. Largely, no doubt, as an outcome of the aggressive attitude of the small powers at Geneva, Japan was forced to withdraw from her Shanghai adventure with no definite quid pro quo in the way of assurances against further use of the boycott. On the other hand, league circles were not greatly elated at the outcome, feeling that the real struggle is yet to be faced over Manchuria.
Immediately after the withdrawal began, Japan made proposals to the United States, Great Britain, and France for a conference on protection of foreign lives, property, and trade in China. Action was held up, however, while the Western powers made inquiries as to how China would be represented in such a parley.
Warfare in East Manchuria.—During May the Japanese campaign against Chinese opposition east of Harbin along the Chinese Eastern Railway and in the lower Sungari River Valley was held up until arrival of two Japanese divisions from Shanghai. The sending through of a train from Harbin to Pogranichnaya on the Siberian border—the first in two months—indicated some progress. Yet at the close of May, Japanese airplanes were bombarding Harbin, only halfway to the border, and on May 25 Japanese troops were fighting 4,000 rebels just outside of Harbin. In the wooded and mountainous regions of eastern and northern Manchuria it appeared that the suppression of guerrilla warfare might be a matter not of months but of years. Questions as to the source of the rebels’ munition supply remained unsolved.
Though the approach of Japanese troops toward the Siberian border has increased the danger of a clash with Russia, the Soviet government is reported as content to remain passive while Japan exhausts her finances in bandit warfare. Undoubtedly there has been considerable strengthening of Soviet forces in Siberia, and there may be some significance in the Russian decision to call four classes (1909-1912) to the colors for this year’s maneuvers, for the first time since 1921.
Economic Exploitation.—To repay the heavy costs of her Manchurian venture, Japan, according to reports from the province, is seeking the earliest and utmost returns in economic exploitation. Control of the purchases of the Manchoukuo government is wholly in Japanese hands. The Southern Manchurian Railway Co. is reported to be undertaking the construction of 635 miles of new railway, including a 112-mile line east to the Korean border, where it will link with a branch of the Korean Railway running to the port of Seistin, greatly shortening the transport from Japan to north and central Manchuria. As regards the Chinese Eastern Railway, formerly under joint control of China and Russia, the Japanese view is that China’s treaty rights are now inherited by Manchoukuo, including the right to purchase the line some thirty years hence. Manchoukuo also claims control of the portions of the Peking-Mukden line in its territory, and is making due payments on the Britiah loan advanced for its construction.