The Los Angeles Review of Books considers Justin Conrad’s Gambling and War in Gambler-in-Chief: The Declining Value of Strategy in Trump’s World.
Gambling & War Teaching Guide by Naval Institute Press.
PRESS RELEASE: "Gambling and War: Risk, Reward, and Chance in International Conflict".
EXCERPT: Gambling and War: Risk, Reward, and Chance in International Conflict.
In 1914, as Germany mobilized for war, Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg remarked to the country’s legislators, “If the iron dice must roll, then God help us.” War has often been compared to a game of dice or a lottery. Just as frequently, however, it has been compared to a game of pure strategy like chess. Napoleon’s shocking successes during the early years of the Napoleonic Wars, for example, are often attributed to strategic superiority and his ability to see the conflict in the same way a player sees the pieces on a chess board. The business of negotiating with adversaries, fighting wars, and ending wars is more complicated than a game of chess, where each player can see all the pieces on the board and knows the possible moves they can make. War is far more chaotic and unpredictable. Yet international bargaining and conflict is not a simple dice game either, where human beings have no control over the outcome.
Justin Conrad bets that war is more like a game of poker. Gambling and War brings readers a war college course taught at a Las Vegas casino. To succeed in poker, it is not enough simply to anticipate the actions of other players and try to outsmart them. A successful player must also understand and appreciate the role of randomness. Additionally, players must confront the reality that all human beings are prone to errors in judgment, which in turn cause them to make suboptimal choices under many circumstances. Taken together, these challenges make poker a fascinating and highly unpredictable game, much like the dynamics of international conflict. Any comprehensive analysis of why wars occur and how they are fought must consider a variety of factors, including strategy, human error, and dumb luck.
Gambling and War applies lessons learned from poker, blackjack, roulette, and other games of chance to the study of international conflict. Drawing on scholarly insights from a variety of fields, including probability, statistics, political science, psychology, and economics, Conrad offers thoughts on how we can better manage and prevent international conflict, the costliest game of all.