In early 2021, the Naval Institute kicked off the American Sea Power Project, a bold effort designed to go back to first principles and examine the need for sea power as the key element of U.S. national power. The project has delivered more than 50 articles spanning the ends, ways, and means of sea power—from grand strategy to culture to tactics, platforms, and systems. This month brings the conclusion of the project with the winners of the Future of Naval Warfare Essay Contest.
When we moved into the means phase of the project with the “War of 2026 Scenario” (December 2023 issue) and warfare domain and community articles, we advertised this essay contest, expecting submissions would delve further into the realm of platforms, weapons, and tactics. But just as a parent’s expectations often are far from where their 20-something-year-olds’ journeys take them, our expectations were far afield. Instead of drilling further down, the winners of the contest brought the discussion back up to the operational and strategic levels. They also closed out the final phase of the project.
Navy Commander Justin Cobb took first prize with “No One Should Think the War Will Be Short.” Commander Cobb explores risk management, husbanding conventional forces for protraction, and slowing the potential for escalation. The second prize winner, Marine Corps Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Hough, explores “Diplomacy for Better Stand-In Force Access in Japan. ” The ability to maneuver stand-in forces in and around Japan, particularly in the Ryukus, will be key to deterring China in crisis or fighting the People’s Liberation Army in war, but high-level diplomatic work is needed to speed up the government of Japan’s approval process for peacetime movement of U.S. forces within the island nation. Finally, Marine Corps Major Ryan Ratcliffe’s “Prize Law Can Help The United States Win the War of 2026” flips a Chinese advantage—its massive merchant fleet—to a broad attack surface and recommends U.S. and allied forces shut down the Chinese economy by seizing its ships at sea all over the world.
Two related articles are also notable. Examining “The Homeland Fight in the 2026 U.S.-China Scenario,” Coast Guard Captain Craig Allen looks at ways China would attempt to sow chaos inside the United States to degrade the U.S. ability to sustain the war effort. He recommends actions the Coast Guard must take now to prepare to target and interdict maritime threats, improve command and control, and generate surge capacity. In a companion piece to Major Ratcliffe’s article, Navy Captain Sean Sullivan and Commander Benjamin Voce-Gardner provide a cogent, readable legal analysis of prize law in “Heave to, and Prepare to be Boarded!.”
No matter what challenges face the Sea Services in the coming decades, the ability to build ships on time and affordably will be key—and Proceedings plans to publish articles focused on this issue until the problems that have plagued littoral combat ships and the Zumwalt, Gerald R. Ford, Constellation, and other classes of ships are in the Navy’s wake. Navy Lieutenant Jeong Soo Kim’s “The Case for a Fifth Naval Shipyard” and Tyler Pitrof’s “The Shipyard Shortage is a People Problem” are this month’s contributions to that effort. A nation that cannot affordably build and maintain a navy will see its global influence and power wane, and that would be disastrous for the United States of America in this century.
