The Navy is just beginning to grapple with the implications of the fourth industrial revolution, in which a digital world enables smart, learning machines teamed with manned platforms. But the world is already entering a fifth one, enabled by advances in material and genetic sciences, that will accelerate today’s trends while introducing living, bioengineered machines. These could form the backbone of a future autonomous fleet. But making that possible will require tremendous gains in genetic engineering, artificial intelligence (AI), and quantum computing—what Lars Jaeger calls “the mighty trio” in his book The Second Quantum Revolution (Springer Nature, 2018).
Predicting the exact arc of technological advance is impossible, but the trajectory is clear. To deploy Jaeger’s trio and build a bioengineered warship, various engineering challenges must be overcome in five key fields:
AI and “big data.” Progress will enable development of learning machines that can rapidly share knowledge among themselves. For the Navy, the key to unlocking this will be the massive digitization of sensed information: shipboard, biomedical, external sensor data, and historical databases. Such “informatization” will lead to exponential technological advances, including the possibility of merging biological and nonbiological intelligence following Ray Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns.
Robotics. AI may be the brains, but just as important to development of autonomous machines will be the energy, auditory, visual, and muscle systems, especially as they affect fine motor skills, which have proved challenging for robots. Overcoming this could lead to roles for robots in delicate processes such as surgery or battle-damage repair. Advances in high-density batteries to drive robotic systems will be critical to high-fidelity sensors and battlefield effectiveness. (For more on batteries, see The Innovation Cell, pp. 86–87.)
Nanotechnology. Control of new materials at the molecular level is becoming possible. Graphene has been used to create nanoscale (1 billionth of a meter) machines. DNA can be used as “smart glue” for precise, molecular-level pairing and self-assembling nanolayers that promise enhanced energy generation and storage. The potential exists for self-healing metals and lightweight, exotic new metals that can be fabricated from the molecular level up. Imagine ruptured shipboard pipes that seal themselves or hull skin that can sense when a saboteur places a mine.
Genetic engineering. In 2019, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency sponsored university researchers designing a simple living system, based on frog cells, that moved using pumping actions. Living robotic systems could augment humans or perform fully autonomous functions; for example, imagine fish engineered to foul a warship’s prop. The challenge will be to scale up the machines’ size and complexity while retaining cognitive control.
Quantum computing. Rapid parallel processing of tremendous amounts of data will be required to unlock the potential of nanotechnology and genetic engineering. Closer at hand, advances in hard-to-decrypt quantum communication are coming. In 2017, a Chinese team conducted a video teleconference using quantum-key encryption over a satellite connection. But for the Navy, the most important advances could come once quantum teleportation—teleportation of photons to allow communication with otherwise inaccessible locations—becomes viable. Quantum sensing offers the potential to detect perturbations in gravity to “see” through the ocean (to find submarines and seabed mines) and to detect stealth aircraft.
—CAPT Brent Sadler, USN
The Proceedings Podcast HITS 200
The Proceedings podcast posted its 200th episode at the end of 2020, a retrospective hitting highlights from the first 199 conversations. If you are a regular listener, you might recognize many of the moments shared, from submariner Lieutenant Andrea Howard talking strategy, to Coast Guard Commander Marcus Canady talking about the effects of the death of George Floyd on service members. You will also hear former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Admiral Mike Mullen and former Seventh Fleet Commander Vice Admiral Joe Aucoin talking about the 2017 collisions and the Comprehensive Review as well as several other topics.
Other recent episodes have featured many interesting guests:
- Dr. Kathy Sullivan (Episode 178—World’s Most Vertical Person) talks about her life as an astronaut, scientist, agency chief, Navy reservist, and “deep sea tourist.”
- Coast Guard Commandant Admiral Karl Schultz (Episode 182—Commandant Unveils New Coast Guard IUU Strategy) unveils the service’s new illegal, unreported, and unregulated fisheries strategy designed to protect regional food sources around the globe.
- Navy Lieutenant (junior grade) Artem Sherbinin (Episode 191—OFRP Isn’t Working) explains why he believes the Navy’s Optimized Fleet Response Plan could break the fleet and hurt retention.
- The authors of The Craft of Wargaming, a new book from the Naval Institute Press (Episode 193—The Craft of Wargaming), discuss how to run a successful wargame and how military leaders can avoid drawing the wrong conclusions from the results.
The podcast updates every week, with new episodes available through www.usni.org, Soundcloud, Apple Podcasts, and Google Podcasts.
Review
The Shores of Tripoli
Kevin Bertram. Fort Circle Games, 2020. One or two players. $66.
Game designers do not often visit the First Barbary War. More’s the pity, as it is, after all, where the Marine Corps gets the second line of its beloved hymn. More important, the war lends itself to the study of sea power as well as combined-arms operations in an asymmetric conflict. Kevin Bertram’s The Shores of Tripoli is a welcome starting point for those wanting to examine the topic.
Players take on the roles of the United States and the Bashaw of Tripoli, though the game can also be played solo. In that version, the player takes on the role of the United States, while Tripoli is played by means of a paper artificial intelligence called the “T-Bot.”
Gameplay is largely card-driven, as seen in such games as Twilight Struggle and 1960: The Making of the President. The cards highlight particular historical events, such as the grounding of the USS Philadelphia, or individuals, such as Stephen Decatur and Murat Reis. The events and personalities give the players advantages in particular situations or the ability to perform certain actions. Highlighting situations and personalities in this way brings the historical figures and events to life for the player.
But the game’s true value comes in its illustration of how desired ends dictate strategy, which in turn dictates operations—even if the specific operations (such as burning a captured U.S. Navy ship) are unlikely in a future conflict.
Victory conditions and starting strategies are spelled out in the rule book. The United States needs to muster its power while interfering with Tripolitan piracy. Tripoli needs to capture as many merchant ships as quickly as it can. It is up to the players to manage their operations through the cards in their hand at a particular time. Often, the players shape future operations by playing or holding cards at a particular moment.
The Shores of Tripoli is an excellent addition to the small-unit leader’s toolkit. It helps teach service history, mission analysis, setting conditions for victory, and how widely different definitions of “victory” can exist, especially in an asymmetric conflict.
—SFC Joseph “Jay” Arnold, ILARNG
Sources for Sadler:
Sam Kriegman, Douglas Blackiston, Michael Levin and Josh Bongard, “A Scalable Pipeline for Designing Reconfigurable Organisms,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 4, 13 January 2020. Amy Nordrum, “China Demonstrates Quantum Encryption by Hosting a Video Call,” IEEE Spectrum, 3 October 2017. Edwin Cartlidge, “Quantum Sensors: A Revolution in the Offing?” Optics & Photonics News, September 2019.
