Allies That Count: Junior Partners in Coalition Warfare
Olivier Schmitt. Washington, D.C. Georgetown University Press, 2018. Illus. Appendices. Biblio. Index. $36.95.
Reviewed by Admiral James G. “Jamie” Foggo III, U.S. Navy
Olivier Schmitt has taken on the challenging task of assessing the utility of junior partners in coalition warfare. He does so by using an analytical approach called “Crisp Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis” (csQCA). The two subfields of mathematics used in csQCA are set theory and Boolean algebra. Set theory allows the application of quantitative methods to qualitative studies in the social sciences. Boolean algebra, named after the 19th-century mathematician George Boole, allows for the establishment of relationships between different sets and variables thereby “identifying necessary and specific conditions for specific outcomes.”
Schmitt applies csQCA in assessing various national contributions to coalition warfare. The discussion of Boolean algebra should not dissuade readers from picking up this book. It is thoroughly researched, well written, easy to understand, and has many overarching policy implications for the United States, its allies, and its partners. The beauty of Schmitt’s work is that a person does not have to be a math major or operations analyst to understand the impact of individual members of a coalition on the final outcome of a campaign.
Schmitt establishes a qualitative manner of assessing the contribution of an ally or partner to coalition warfare. He uses easy-to-understand qualitative terms (and not mathematical variables) to assess the contributions of different allies/partners to a number of military campaigns in recent history. Applying his mathematical model a priori, he explains the relative utility of a partner or ally to the campaign in relation to three variables: standing, integration, and quality. Utility is assessed from the standing of the contributing nation in the international community, combined with the integration and quality of its military forces in the campaign. Utility is defined as the capacity of the partner to positively assist in achievement of the desired result. Standing is defined as the position the actor occupies in the hierarchy of the coalition. Integration is the capacity of the partner to join military activities and reinforce operations in the campaign. Finally, quality is defined as the relative ability of the partner to supply itself with superior weapons and equipment.
After a brief explanation of his methodology, Schmitt then embarks on a tour d’horizon of recent military campaigns, including the Gulf wars, Kosovo, and Afghanistan. He examines the relative utility generated by allies and partners—the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Australia, the Gulf States, and even Syria—in all of these campaigns.
The conclusions on the utility of individual allies or partners may be hard hitting or difficult to accept for those who lost blood and treasure in these various campaigns, but it is difficult to argue with Schmitt’s analytical methodology and data reduction. He has done a great deal of detailed research for the book. In this age of unilateralism versus multilateralism, there is a tendency to want to expand coalitions to as many participants as possible. There is a perception that the more countries you involve, the more legitimate the operation. “The more is not necessarily the merrier,” according to Schmitt.
In conclusion, Olivier Schmitt’s excellent piece of work should be part of the calculus in future coalition warfare. Allies that Count will remain on my bookshelf—and I have a feeling I will be referencing it.
Admiral Foggo is currently serving in Naples, Italy, as the Commander, Allied Joint Force Command, and the Commander, U.S. Naval Forces, Europe and Africa.
The Future is History: How Totalitarianism Reclaimed Russia
Penguin Books, 2017. 515 pp. Notes. Index. $28.
Reviewed by Lieutenant Cassie Hamblin, U.S. Navy
Can a nation’s eradication of its historical past and suppression of its populace’s memories ensure the continuation of totalitarianism across multiple generations? Award-winning writer and journalist Masha Gessen answers yes in her nonfiction tale of Russia’s history and its future.
Her book is a heartbreaking reminder of how the appropriation of rights and promulgation of fear allow for absolute control. Gessen is an outspoken opponent of President Vladimir Putin’s regime. Notably, she was fired as the chief editor of the Russian magazine Vokrug Sveta (Around the World) for refusing to cover a story of Putin hang-gliding with Siberian cranes.
Throughout her narrative, Gessen details the coming of age of seven members of the new Russian intelligentsia against the backdrop of the fall of the Soviet Union and the rise of modern-day Russia. In doing so, she illustrates how the characteristics of obedience, conformity, and subservience make up homo sovietucus and cement Soviet societal norms. She also demonstrates how various tactics are used against the Russian populace to augment the government’s status quo. These two concepts are central to the regime’s rotation of absolute power, brief periods of freedom or fortochka (tiny fissures in a window that allow free air into an airless space), and regime crackdowns. This same pattern defined the Soviet Union, and the author argues it has come to define modern Russia as well.
Homo sovietucus was formed in part by the intentional self-isolation of the regime and the subsequent segregation of the Soviet people. This was precipitated by the Soviet rejection and banishment of the social academics and the regime’s proclivity for terrorizing anybody who was viewed as an “other.” Citizens were left without methods to articulate their history or to allow for societal growth. Examples of this are rampant throughout the book. One of the most poignant is the story of a patient of the psychoanalyst Marina Arutyunyan. A previous generation of the patient’s family had devised a plan to become more Soviet than the Soviets to avoid arrest, and they succeeded. The patient grew up in a room covered with Soviet slogans and was raised by a father who eradicated self-reflection to ensure conformity. Russia became a hollowed-out society that eliminated self out of fear. This left them unprepared to deal with historical wounds, nonconformity, and a lack of security, which came with the collapse of the Soviet Union.
In addition to the strengthening of the regime by the craving for stability and security, the author details the strategies used against the populace to buttress the regime. These stratagems are depicted throughout the book and include media messaging, election tactics, academic monitoring, and the enactment of restrictive laws. These methods provide signals to the citizenry that underline governmental power and the necessity of public enforcement to prevent identification as an “other.” A disturbing example of this is the recent placement of a “security advisor” to the university where one of the protagonists, Lyosha, taught. Reminiscent of the Soviet First Department, the security advisor required Lyosha to meet with him once a week to discuss “restless” students. The security advisor joined the university staff in June 2013.
Gessen’s Russian nativity provides a unique perspective into Russia’s history, political system, and populace. Her account underlines how the erosion of identity contributes to the subjugation of society but fails to prove that Russia has returned to totalitarianism. Despite this flaw, this exceptional volume provides an insider’s view of Russia and its people today. This book is essential reading for regional intelligence analysts and any who are interested in Russia’s trajectory.
Lieutenant Hamblin is a naval intelligence officer who has deployed to Africa, the Middle East, Europe, and South America. She is a candidate for a master’s degree in defense analysis at the Naval Postgraduate School.
South Korea at the Crossroads: Autonomy and Alliance in an Era of Rival Powers
Scott A. Snyder. New York: Columbia University Press, 2018. 355 pp. Notes. Biblio. Index. $34.98.
Reviewed by Vice Admiral Robert Thomas, U.S. Navy (Retired)
Scott Snyder examines more than 60 years of South Korean foreign policy through the lens of a country caught between rival powers. This work is intended for academics, policy makers, and those who execute policy in Northeast Asia.
Snyder’s book also provides an excellent text for an international relations graduate school course in security studies. He provides a useful framework upfront for examining the Republic of Korea’s (ROK’s) strategic foreign policy decisions since the end of the Korean War. This framework is used to evaluate choices made by a series of South Korean administrations trying to balance aspects of security, prosperity, and potential unification of the peninsula. He concludes this historical review with an assessment of the future of the U.S.-ROK alliance.
Snyder, with more than 30 years of knowledge and experience as a student of South Korean politics, provides clarifying details with respect to policy perspectives of past South Korean presidents. Even the experienced “Korea watcher” will find his research illuminating.
South Korea is characterized as a “victim” in a tough neighborhood. Rival powers in Northeast Asia constrain South Korea’s choices and make it dependent on a security patron. Snyder poses a legitimate question as to the future of the United States as that patron. With a “rising China,” when does U.S. influence in the region degrade enough to force South Korea to “hedge”? In addition, his insights into the conservative/progressive divide in South Korean politics are germane. He examines this schism at length as the Republic of Korea evolves from authoritarian rule to a vibrant and prosperous democracy.
Snyder treats North Korea as somewhat inert in this examination, perhaps so as to not detract from the focus on South Korean politics. He also avoids commentary with respect to U.S. military influence in policy execution on the Korean Peninsula. With my experience as both a Combined Forces Command Task Force Commander and the Combined Forces Command Naval Component Commander between 2010 and 2015, I found his approach refreshing.
For the military practitioners who may find themselves supporting the U.S.-ROK alliance, this book is an important primer. It is not a leisurely read. The prose is repetitive, sometimes a bit awkward, and may benefit from a dose of Strunk and White (The Elements of Style) for the second edition. Snyder drives home his points on strategic choices, over and over again, throughout the text. This may have been done so that each chapter can stand on its own to provide utility as an academic reference. In addition, he provides an extensive amount of source material in the back of the book (82 of the 355 pages are source material that includes select source documents, a chronology of South Korean strategic history, notes, select bibliography, and a thorough index). His choices of source material especially are insightful.
Snyder is clearly a policy expert and makes a balanced argument for the continuation of the U.S.-ROK alliance. With that in mind, South Korea at the Crossroads is an important contribution to the current Northeast Asia security debate.
Vice Admiral Thomas retired from the U.S. Navy in January 2017. He is a senior research fellow at the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation.
The Sentient Machine: The Coming Age of Artificial Intelligence
Amir Husain. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2017. 214 pp. Notes. Index. $16.99.
Reviewed by Lieutenant Commander Matthew Brown, U.S. Navy
Entering a crowded field of thought leadership, Amir Husain’s The Sentient Machine steals discussions from the ivory tower and offers a solid first step to understanding this age’s most profound opportunity or gravest threat: the development of artificial intelligence (AI).
From eerily applicable consumer recommendations on Amazon accounts to cancer treatments, AI pervades individual and collective lives. Discussions on the wisdom of AI development are as polarized as they are important. Notable technologists such as Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg, academics such as the recently deceased Stephen Hawking, and philanthropists such as Bill Gates find themselves in different camps. Is the development of AI systems a panacea for humanity’s most pressing challenges or the beginning of our irrelevance? For his part, Husain makes no pretense of neutrality.
Offering a window into his deeply personal connection with computing, Husain likens his study of AI to an artist holding a paintbrush—the “ultimate tool of creativity.” His stated goal is to share the beauty of computational sciences such that we (the readers) “might better appreciate how humanity can live and thrive amid this coming age of sentient machines.” With unapologetic optimism, The Sentient Machine uses current field developments and a series of anecdotes to postulate how AI will elevate the human condition.
In discussions of AI and machine learning (ML), readers normally are left to wrestle with pages of substantiating computations and graphs—but not here. The Sentient Machine is not a cautionary technical volume like Nick Bostrom’s Superintellegence (Oxford University Press, 2014). Nor is it a full-throated call to action in the form of Pedro Domingos’ The Master Algorithm (Basic Books, 2015). Instead, it is a slender but stirring primer on the differences between human and machine intelligence. A gentle nudge, encouraging readers to shake off anthropomorphic bias in favor of a more symbiotic view of what it means for a machine to be “intelligent.”
The Sentient Machine is arranged into three sections. The first baselines the reader’s understanding of AI and ML. Specifically, Husain spends pages defining essential but often misused terms. He explains the differences between artificial narrow intelligence (ANI), artificial general intelligence (AGI), ML, cognitive computing, deep learning, and more.
Armed with these definitions, the reader is ushered through the book’s second and largest section. Here, Husain says AI manifests itself in people’s daily lives, perhaps even without their direct knowledge. Vast data sets, improvements to our healthcare, security, warfare, financial markets, economics, and “mind hacking”—all of these are touched at the surface level. The reader is left with an “informed novice” understanding of what is going on under the hood of the algorithms enriching our daily lives.
The third section explores what all this means for the future of humanity. Again, more philosophical than technical, Husain tackles what critics of AI development might call humans’ pending extinction or, worse, humans’ irrelevance. He challenges the most basic assumptions of what it means to be human. Are humans defined through their works, or is it possible that humans could be more than just the sum of their economic output? In teasing out this question, Husain uses his experiences and inspirations to argue that AI’s development is not a zero-sum game (man vs. machine) but rather an infinite universe of possibility to which humans would otherwise be completely blind.
Reading The Sentient Machine will give you an appreciation for Amir Husain, but probably will not advance understanding of AI as a field. However, at only 214 pages, the book can be tackled in a single cross-country flight. Readers will be left inspired to participate in the discussion AI’s development, a discussion which Husain suggests may define our time.
Lieutenant Commander Brown served in destroyers, cruisers, and mine countermeasures ships spanning every U.S. fleet. His most recent tour at sea was as commanding officer of the USS Scout (MCM-8). He is now with Naval Special Warfare Command Innovation Directorate helping to build a technology accelerator that leverages promising commercial developments for use by special operators.
NEW & NOTEWORTHY BOOKS
By Captain Bill Bray, U.S. Navy (Retired)
Preventive Engagement: How America Can Avoid War, Stay Strong, and Keep the Peace
Paul B. Stares. New York: Columbia University Press, 2018. 244 pp. Index. $35.
Mainstream public debate regarding U.S. foreign policy of late has seemed limited and unimaginative. On one hand, engagement abroad leads to costly and fruitless interventions; on the other hand pulling back from the world is naïve isolationism that will only allow threats to grow unchecked. With Preventive Engagement, Council on Foreign Relations fellow Paul Stares brings a welcome and persuasive case for a more nuanced and far-sighted foreign policy vision. The liberal international order has proved remarkably resilient over the past 70 years, but it should never be taken for granted. It is in the United States’ national interest to preserve and strengthen it, a burden that can be shouldered without long, costly wars. Stares takes the first half of the book to explain the conceptual foundations of preventive engagement, including “the rigorous application of what is termed preventive foresight methods.” Then he puts preventive engagement to the test using real-world contingencies. This latter half is useful, but in part strains it to be something unique rather than simply prudent planning.
Doris Miller, Pearl Harbor, and the Birth of the Civil Rights Movement
Thomas W. Cutrer and T. Michael Parrish. College Station, TX: Texas A&M University Press, 2018. 102 pp. Illus. Biblio. Index. $25.95.
In just more than 100 pages Thomas Cutrer and T. Michael Parrish link the legacy of Doris (Dorie) Miller, African American Pearl Harbor hero and Navy Cross winner, to the larger mid-20th century civil rights movement. It is widely held that the U.S. military was, through early integration, a vanguard U.S. institution in civil rights. To a large extent that is true, but the story from 1940 to full integration is complicated and somewhat uncomfortable to revisit. Formally recognizing Miller’s heroism in May 1942, the Navy was conflicted as to how to, or whether it should, showcase it in the same way it did for white Pearl Harbor heroes. Miller was a mess cook, and his gallantry under fire became a rallying cry for the Navy to fully integrate its ranks as quickly as possible. But there remained plenty of resistance, and it stemmed not just from concerns about unit cohesion and warfighting effectiveness. Indeed, some of the language an early 1940s commission on integration employed to oppose change was not ambiguous about concluding the black race was too inferior to succeed in most Navy professional specialties.
No Forgotten Fronts: From Classrooms to Combat
Lisa K. Shapiro. Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2018. 344 pp. Illus. Biblio. Index. $29.95.
From May 1942 until the end of World War II, Dr. Lauren Post of then-San Diego State College produced and mailed more than 40 editions of the Aztec News Letter to his former students serving both in the United States and overseas. Each edition contained excerpts of the latest letters he received from them, keeping all informed on their classmates’ experiences, feats, and fates. This was a pre-digital version of social media, with one beloved editor who had such an impact on his students that they shared with him the same feelings they shared with their own mothers. Along with all copies of the News Letter, San Diego State maintains more than 4,500 of the letters in its World War II Servicemen’s Correspondence Collection. In researching this project, Lisa Shapiro read every letter, and her extraordinary diligence shows in this marvelous book’s careful structure, choice examples of correspondence, and crisp commentary that guides the reader along the war’s chronology, where the thoughts on those well-kept pages capture a nation alternating between hope, fear, sorrow, and finally joy.
Issues in Maritime Cyber Security
Joseph DiRenzo III, Nicole K. Drumhiller, and Fred S. Roberts, eds. Washington, DC: Westphalia Press, 2017. 579 pp. Illus. $25.45.
This hefty collection of 33 academic essays from leading experts across government and industry focuses the expansive field of cybersecurity squarely on the Maritime Transportation System, which includes every facet of the commercial maritime world, from pleasure boating to maritime navigation and control systems to the heavy equipment handling cargo in major ports such as Long Beach. Most of the essays were sub-missions to the 2015 Maritime Cyber Security Symposium, held at Rutgers University in March 2015 and cosponsored by American Military University. Broken into four main sections, this collection serves well as both a textbook for courses in cybersecurity and national and maritime policy and a thorough reference for researchers and cybersecurity professionals alike. U.S. Navy wardrooms also would be wise to obtain copies, as warships are dealing with many of the same issues.
Captain Bray served as a naval intelligence officer for 28 years before retiring in 2016. Currently, he is a managing director in the Geopolitical Risk practice at Ankura.