Spark an Intel Revolution
(See A. Xenachis, pp. 38-41 October 2016 Proceedings)
William Manthorpe, former Deputy Director of Naval Intelligence—Lieutenant Xenachis’s thoughtful article accurately points out that “honing the art of geopolitical forecasting is key to naval intelligence upping its game.” And, “forecasting also is central to the Chief of Naval Operations’ vision for the Navy’s future.” That is not new. The CNO routinely has tasked naval intelligence for forecasts, and naval intelligence always has tried to up its game to respond. What naval intelligence lacked in the past and must develop for the future is not new methodologies but the institutional memory and the commitment to keep its forecasts relevant to changing strategic circumstances and foremost in the minds of policymakers over the years.