Cis-lunar space-the vast region within the Moon's orbit-has become the focus of an evolving international framework whose goal it is to build on the diversity, expansion, and global nature of space activities. The United States has an enormous interest in establishing a leadership role in developing this framework. Significant research and national-security benefits are at stake. As an international leader with a growing dependence on the increasingly busy "littoral zone" of near-Earth space, the United States can help weave together the economic, social, scientific, national security, and civil aspects of space development that have evolved largely in isolation since the space age began.
The launch of the Soviet Sputnik in 1957, Apollo 11's lunar landing 40 years ago, the proliferation of satellites, the Space Shuttle program, and the International Space Station (ISS) constitute the first phase of the space age. The continued development of cis-lunar space, beyond the vibrant areas of near-Earth space, will define the next phase.
Americans Crave a Frontier
The United States has a rich history of establishing international guidelines and frameworks through leadership and creating opportunities. The origin of modern naval policy at the beginning of the 20th century is an important component of this heritage. Rear Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan summarized this maritime philosophy as follows: display the flag, open new markets, protect U.S. commerce, aid vessels in distress, extend the bounds of oceanography (and other scientific research), clear seas of pirates, and project power. This strategy merged with a geopolitical focus that President Theodore Roosevelt instilled into the national ethos. Opening physical frontiers extended U.S. preeminence globally and fueled intellectual, economic, and cultural growth. During this period the nation turned its gaze beyond the frontier of the American West to the oceans and unexplored corners of the world.
The exploration of cis-lunar space is reminiscent of the investigation of other frontiers by the United States, most recently the study of the world's oceans and the associated growth of international trade and scientific research in the early 20th century. The national-security operations of the maritime services increasingly rely on space to support their terrestrial efforts. U.S. Navy and Marine Corps service members constitute a large percentage of the astronauts whose efforts in space continue to shape a permanent human presence there.
The Increasing Relevance of Space
More than 800 active satellites now circle the Earth. They are financed by 50 countries and more than 50 non-governmental and commercial entities. Thirty countries have national space agencies. The space economy in 2008 grew to more than $255 billion (a figure based on direct revenues and budgets only). More than 60 percent of the activity in the littoral economic zone of near-Earth space is now commercially related and funded.
Since 2000, more than 170 people, representing 15 nations and private interests, have visited, lived, and worked on board the ISS, establishing a continuous human presence in a vessel that orbits the Earth every 90 minutes. On-board command has alternated between Russian cosmonauts and American astronauts until the recent expansion of the permanent crew to six. This fall, Belgian astronaut Frank de Winne will take command of the ISS for its 21st mission.
The U.S. military's use of images, communications, and navigation information derived from space has increased exponentially since the beginning of the space age. For example, Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan has used ten times more bandwidth than Operation Desert Storm did-with a tenth of the human forces involved. Projections for the amount of use per Soldier indicate that this growth will continue.
Given this increased activity, potential threats to space assets also are increasing, and space denial and control efforts have arisen. Recently, U.S. policy and investments have been directed toward actively denying other countries' space capabilities. Under the heading of "space control," these efforts respond to and prompt similar programs in other nations. The U.S. has tried to avoid threats to its assets in space in the past, due to its asymmetric dependence and the high cost of those assets. Instead, it has tried to avert threats through policies designed to avoid introducing offensive weapons into space or investing in capabilities that passively protect space assets, for example, by increasing satellite interoperability.
Collaborative human space flight provides an important smart-power tool that, along with other strategies to build stability and complement U.S. interest in ensuring global access to space, can increase stewardship and establish the "rules of the road" in space. Nascent U.S. exploration efforts beyond Earth's coastal regions can provide asymmetric strategic capabilities while also creating an outlet for technological and cultural growth.
The Geo-Strategic Role of Space
How should the United States proceed? Unlike its earlier frontiers, space presents opportunities that America can share with other nations. The collaborative nature of space exploration can be increased to help ensure this course. The potential is unlimited. America's isolated terrestrial location, combined with its strategic and economic strength, has led to its dependence, more than any other nation, on the Earth's oceans and cis-lunar space. The development of U.S. space capabilities in the interest of national security has expanded and diversified with time. Our ability to freely overfly the Soviet Union was of central national importance during the Cold War, with NASA's civil programs reinforcing the open use of outer space. Investments made in the development of space capabilities led directly to the development of computers, micro-electronics, and Earth-imaging technologies.
As the dependence on and intersection of space into all spheres of economy, environment, and security has grown around the world, overall U.S. hegemony has continued to shrink. Every year, more countries and independent groups travel to space for economic and scientific research, as tourists, and for leadership projection. Space has become more accessible because economic and technical barriers have decreased. For example, India's lunar satellite, Chandrayaan-1, which was launched in October 2008 and is now in lunar orbit, cost roughly $100 million, including the launch. An equivalent U.S. capability would be expected to cost at least several times that amount. The growth of small satellite capabilities also has helped this ramp-up of space activity and applications, while putting pressure on national security communities to adapt and adjust to emerging capabilities, threats, and opportunities.
The area around the Moon is increasingly busy. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's first lunar probe, Kaguya, made a controlled crash-landing on 11 June 2009, after a 19-month mission. China's first lunar probe, Chang'e-1, landed on the Moon in March 2009. The United States' Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter also is scheduled to crash into the Moon. Private companies and organizations, building on their efforts to turn low-Earth orbit into a commercial economic zone, are joining this movement. In coming years, Chinese taikonauts, Russian cosmonauts, and American astronauts may join space travelers from Japan, Europe, Canada, and private groups from other nations to explore cis-lunar space and the Moon's surface.
The Lunar Continent
The Moon's surface area matches roughly that of Africa. This offshore "continent" is largely undiscovered and contains untapped information about the history and nature of our solar system and the Sun and Earth. The Moon's evolution is directly tied to the Earth's. The relation of the Sun to climate change on Earth is recorded in the Moon's regolith. Thus the Moon is both useful and interesting as the initial destination beyond Earth's shoreline. It is relatively close to Earth-typical travel times to and from the Moon are between three to five days-and even closer to the economic pay zones that have been developed in near-Earth space. The Moon contains usable resources to allow space travel and habitation and potentially to manufacture rocket propellant and solar cells. Developing an outpost on the Moon will be complemented by a presence at the Earth-Moon libration orbits. These orbits offer stable areas-zones where the Earth and the Moon's gravity are cancelled out-which, combined with current low-Earth and geosynchronous orbits and emerging capabilities, can host and enable a range of activities.
Moving beyond the near-Earth orbit of space can also help increase our independence from terrestrial supply chains and resources. Today, space operations require the fabrication and launch of a system, its use for some period of time, and its eventual abandonment. With a transportation and support system in cis-lunar space and the eventual use of resources from the Moon, we could potentially visit and repair, maintain, refurbish, expand, and upgrade satellites regularly basis. The Hubble Telescope Serving Mission by the Space Shuttle in May 2009 indicated what the future may hold. We can evolve from the existing sortie approach to space travel to an approach that allows continual, routine access to cis-lunar space.
The push beyond low-Earth orbit will drive markets and technologies. For example, space technology development can lead to efficient resource extraction, in-space refueling, handling and storing of cryogenic fuels in micro-gravity, and building reusable and restartable cryogenic engines. These innovations will make possible sustainable fuel cells, life-support, and environmental control systems, which our terrestrial energy and environmental sectors need.
Phasing Out the Shuttle
The next phase of the space age in cis-lunar space offers significant opportunities to leverage U.S. smart power, of which human spaceflight has been the linchpin since its inception. The memorandum recommending what became the Apollo space program to President John F. Kennedy admonished that it is men, not machines, who capture the imagination of the world.
The Apollo program offered a civil contrast to the development of the Soviet space program, which mirrored the closed nature of the Soviet state and economy. With the ISS and its precursor, the Shuttle-Mir program, the partnership between the United States and Russia shifted emphasis from strategic competition to collaborative engagement. In just a few years, we learned more about the capabilities of Russia's space program than we had during the entire Cold War period, and vice versa. This close relationship fostered a sound respect for each others' capabilities.
Initiatives to expand U.S. smart power can build on these efforts. Creating broader strategic opportunities will require developing a cis-lunar transportation capability, presence at key deep orbit points, and a global lunar outpost. All these necessitate government engagement and resources because of their size and strategic importance. Commercial launch capabilities and services are not yet suited to ensure leadership and stewardship throughout cis-lunar space. Nevertheless, commercial transportation efforts play an important role in helping provide capabilities and services in low Earth orbit.
NASA is developing a cis-lunar transportation system as the Space Shuttle program nears retirement. The system will offer the equivalent of a terrestrial "blue-water" capability and allow us to extend our reach deeper into space. The shuttle enables us to reach and maintain presence in the "coastal" region of near-Earth space. It was designed in part to shuttle cargo to and from low-Earth orbit. We are now at a stage where ties to Earth are being severed and entering an era in which repairs can be made in space and samples studied at their points of origin. The ISS allows us to develop an unprecedented presence in space separate from the Earth. The Moon will further allow us to manufacture items from its materials. A key part of this transportation system is the ability to lift heavy cargo beyond Earth and to complement other launch capabilities around the world.
The system NASA is developing will include heritage shuttle assets and will place critical resources farther into all regions of cis-lunar space. Concerns already exist about the effects of the worldwide movement into space and whether space-launch, anti-satellite, and small-satellite capabilities pose a threat. The strategic response to these trends has largely dwelt on military space capabilities and strategies.
By taking advantage of a transportation system to include all of cis-lunar space, the United States can make asymmetric advances beyond current and conceivable threats, without necessarily adding to them. These steps can help the United States complement international space situational awareness and create a more stable global space security framework to maintain global access to space. While this transportation system could be viewed as a tool for hard-power space superiority, the United States has chosen to construct it as a civilian capability for the development of a global exploration architecture.
High Stakes for U.S. Leadership
The United States must take a prominent role in providing international stewardship of near-Earth space. The Obama administration has announced its intention to foster a more stable international climate for space exploration, which may be the necessary impetus for a broad international discussion on the implications of space exploration. With its emerging capabilities and larger geo-strategic focus, U.S. national security can begin moving from limited Earth-bound coastal strategies to an integrated strategy based on building long-term security in cis-lunar space that melds security, civil, economic and scientific interests in a global context. By extending its efforts beyond low-Earth and geosynchronous orbit activities, returning to the Moon, and enabling other exploratory missions, the United States can shape the international environment in cis-lunar space in terms that support its interests. In leveraging our rich heritage and reaching for new opportunities, America can help guide the future of space exploration.