In at least one respect, President George W. Bush is a fortunate man. He is surrounded by military experts, not only the real ones in uniform, but the amateurs in Congress and the press, not to mention the legions of retired generals working for think tanks and defense contractors. Trouble is, the daily advice, both solicited and unsolicited, he receives on how to prosecute our military efforts in Iraq ranges from get out now to stay forever if that is what it takes to achieve victory or success.
But what exactly do the terms victory and success mean and how will we know when we have achieved them? When will we know that the troops have accomplished their mission, at least to the degree that we can declare victory and start drawing down? Some say never. However, our Iraq campaign, now lengthier than our involvement in World War II, clearly cannot go on indefinitely given the declining support for it among Americans in spite of the reduction in violence achieved by the surge.
Our troops performed their primary mission brilliantly, defeating Saddam Hussein's forces and driving him from power. It is not the fault of our troops that the country descended into lawlessness, sectarian violence, vendetta, and civil war until the surge imposed some semblance of order. Blame that on the Iraqis themselves and the blind hatred between Shiites and Sunnis that transcends any feelings of nationalism. Blame also our government's naive belief that the Iraqis so yearned for democracy that they would put aside religious hatred and lust for revenge and join together to build a model democracy in the very undemocratic Muslim Middle East.
What to do now? When will we finally be able to leave? Clearly we cannot stay forever and a Democratic victory in November may make the question moot. But we have invested far too much blood and treasure and achieved too much hard-won success to quit prematurely. If Iraq should then descend into chaos again it would be viewed as a defeat for the United States. We would suffer tremendous loss of credibility and might never again be entirely trusted by our friends or feared by our enemies. The majority Shiites might feel free to resume inflicting their bloody revenge on the minority Sunni, prompting Saudi Arabia and other predominately Sunni nations to intervene to protect the Sunni, and Iran, in turn, to intervene on behalf of the Shiite government.
Every new decision needs to be based on current facts and odds, not on how much has been spent. Those are sunk costs and should have no bearing on future decisions. This is tough to accept when part of that sunk cost is our nearly 4,000 fallen warriors plus the many wounded. They are heroes, whatever the politicians decide to do next. They did their duty.
With respect to the loss of American prestige, the trust of our friends, and the victory claims of our enemies, this is all background noise. We must ultimately do what is in our best interest regardless of what our friends or enemies think or make of it.
As the world's only superpower, we can't afford to let others decide what is best for us. And whatever our enemies may claim, they know that they can never defeat us militarily. We must, therefore, use our strengths to our advantage and avoid being drawn into police and counter-insurgency actions where the terrorists have all the advantages while we try to play by polite rules of war that are no longer entirely relevant in a conflict against religious fanatics.
Finally, the consequences of an abrupt withdrawal would be destabilizing for an already unstable region. Iraq is a disaster of its own making and will remain so however long we stay except perhaps for the semi-autonomous Kurdish north and the relatively peaceful Shiite south. A three-way partition or loose federation with some scheme for sharing oil revenue offers the best hope for that divided and troubled land, whatever Iraq's neighbors or our State Department may think.
It would be helpful to our troops and to our international reputation, not to mention our chances for some sort of favorable outcome, if we could stop fighting among ourselves, put politics aside and unite behind this twice-elected President and wartime leader for the good of the country. We can believe, if we choose, that going into Iraq or staying there was a mistake but that doesn't change the fact that we are still there and there is no easy way out, even for Mr. Bush's successor.