The nation is at greater risk today than at any time since the Civil War. Historically, all wars begot new ones. Two decades after World War I, World War II broke out; the Cold War quickly followed. Now, following the Cold War's demise and the al Qaeda attacks on 11 September 2001, we are engaged in a new and different conflict.
In Unfinished Business: Afghanistan, the Middle East and Beyond—Defusing the Dangers That Threaten America's Security (London: Kensington Press, 2002), I identified five dangerous circumstances: the often irrational performance of the U.S. political system; its dysfunctional organization; the inherent vulnerability of our society; the need to take on frontally the great challenges in the greater Middle East and South Asia; and the need to embrace new strategic relationships internationally. Sadly, those pieces of unfinished business have been exacerbated badly by the Iraq war, its postwar failures, and the growing danger of Jihadist extremism. Livelihoods and ways of life are targets, not the physical destruction of our society. The terrorists represent an ideology wrapped in a religion that is as dangerous as Bolshevism and Fascism—and we ignore that reality to our peril. Consider:
- As in wars against crime and poverty, the war on terror cannot bring total victory. The battle is against those who captured a respected religion for political and revolutionary purposes, and who use terror as a tactic to achieve political ends.
- The Jihadist extremists seek to establish a regime that controls Saudi oil and Pakistani nuclear weapons.
- Rather than the destruction of society, the new danger is massive disruption through real (or threatened) terrorist attacks that dislocate lives, harm economies, and cause us to overreact in ways that advance the enemies' agenda by restricting freedom and individual liberties.
- Governance in the United States is not up to the task of keeping the nation safe; it must be repaired. There is an excessive fixation on campaigning for and keeping office. Unless the U.S. government radically changes priorities, policies, and organization, it will fail to keep its people safe, secure, and prosperous.
- The White House and Congress must work more closely in major reforms that move national security beyond the Cold War era to meet the challenges and demands of the 21st century.
- To remove many dysfunctional aspects of government, executive and legislative discipline must be instituted to improve the governing process.
- Fundamental changes in law enforcement and intelligence and in safeguards to protect individual liberties are needed when security requires greater government imposition and intrusion.
- Defense is a subset of security, not the reverse. This obviously affects how the government organizes, trains, equips, and educates its military and civilian personnel.
- The United States must adopt global solutions to major problems, including resolution of the intractable Israeli-Palestinian and Indian-Pakistani conflicts. A comprehensive reconstruction plan for the Middle East, with full international support, is essential.
- Regional security arrangements should be broadened. NATO must be transformed in keeping with the commitments made at the Prague Summit in November 2002, and new relationships must be established.
Four immediate actions are in order. First, we should create an expanded Marshall-type plan for the greater Middle East. In October 2003, Congress appropriated $18.7 billion for reconstruction of Iraq on an emergency basis. Shamelessly, little of it was spent. The remaining $18 billion should be used for funding this plan. As security improves in Iraq, the money can be diverted for further reconstruction there.
Second, our alliances and regional relationships must be rejuvenated. A NATO summit meeting should be called immediately after the presidential inauguration for the purpose of putting new life in that crucial organization.
Third, a National Security Service Corps must be organized to bring the best and brightest to government service as the role of security grows and affects a greater cross section of society.
Finally, real government reform is necessary. The Sarbanes-Oxley bill was enacted to hold corporations and their leaders accountable. A similar measure could improve federal governance. For example, members of Congress would be required to affirm that they read and understand all bills prior to votes; senior executive branch officials would certify that the bills and budgets they submit to Congress were true and accurate regarding financial projections and requests.
The United States is at grave risk. It is time to face reality and act.
Dr. Ullman, a former swift boat and destroyer skipper, is the inventor of "shock and awe." He is a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a columnist for the Washington Times, and a commentator for Fox News and the BBC. His most recent book is Finishing Business: Ten Steps to Defeat Global Terror (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, September 2004).