First Honorable Mention, International Navies Essay Contest
The jury is out on how the 11 September terrorist attacks will affect long-term U.S. military commitments to East Asia. For the Carl Vinson (CVN-70) battle group and other U.S. forces involved in Operation Enduring Freedom, forward bases such as Changi Naval Base in Singapore contributed significantly. The key to the future is a mutual understanding of the challenges the United States and East Asia face.
The United States is the undisputed global power today, with the world's largest economy and supremacy in every field—from its technology to its military. In East Asia, the United States has maintained a military presence since the end of World War II. Today, that presence consists mostly of troops stationed in Japan and Korea and the ships and aircraft of the Seventh Fleet.
The policy of the United States is to maintain this presence. Recently, however, there were concerns the United States might reduce its profile and presence in the region. Senior military leaders commented that the Australian-led, U.S.-supported coalition that restored peace in East Timor was a model for future peacekeeping and humanitarian operations. The aim was to strengthen security cooperation in the region and reduce U.S. commitments to send troops into conflicts unless its interests are clearly at stake. While this should be interpreted as a useful lesson in the context of humanitarian operations, a reduction of the U.S. military profile overall could give the impression that the United States does not take Asia seriously.
It remains to be seen how the events following 11 September will affect long-term U.S. military commitments in East Asia. Will the fight against terrorism mean an increase in direct U.S. military involvement in the region, or will it be carried out by proxy in a manner similar to the East Timor experience?
Domestic and External Challenges
In the United States, domestic issues such as social security, education, and medical care were the most important campaign issues in the last presidential election. Though the events of 11 September may have changed the dynamics of U.S. politics, domestic issues, especially the future of the economy, remain important. This still could undermine the will of the United States to maintain a military presence overseas, including in East Asia. In addition, other domestic pressures could force a further reduction of U.S. military presence. While forward presence helps the United States fight its new war on terrorism, it also leaves U.S. forces vulnerable to asymmetric attacks, and casualty aversion remains a factor.
The opposition from some East Asian countries to a U.S. presence also could persuade the U.S. public and Congress that the United States should not deploy its forces to areas where they are not welcomed. Recently, for instance, Filipino demonstrations highlighted concerns about the growing U.S. interest in cracking down on militant Muslim groups in the southern Philippines.
The international environment also presents some challenges to the U.S. military presence. In recent years, there has been criticism in Korea and Japan over nationalist and economic issues. With the growing rapprochement between the two Koreas, nationalist elements in South Korea have begun to question the need for a U.S. military presence in their country, which is seen as obstructing efforts toward reunification. This could create pressures for a reduction or complete withdrawal of U.S. forces. In Japan, some people are unhappy over the $4.5 billion that Japan contributes annually to sustain the U.S. military presence amid Japan's persistent economic problems, and the "unequal relationship" that places the United States in a big brother role. Conservative groups in Japan, wary of the threat from a rising China and unwilling to rely on the United States for their security, could mount pressure on the government to rearm and then to oust U.S. troops from Japan.
In addition, the U.S. interest in promoting democracy presents a special challenge for many Asian countries. The United States justifies its actions as "standing up for the expressed will of that country's people." This concept differs from the Asian perspective, which emphasizes the stability of society and the overall well-being of the population. The emphasis of the United States on its interpretation of democracy is seen by some countries in the region as an unwarranted interference in their domestic politics. These concerns could undermine support for U.S. presence in the region.
East Asia Needs the United States
The U.S. military provides a stabilizing influence in the region. The hegemony of this military power helps balance the other regional powers and keeps belligerents in check. While the United States has unparalleled might in military, political, and economic spheres, it has not exhibited aggressive intent. Instead, the United States has conducted itself as a benevolent and benign superpower. This approach has allowed the countries in the region to maintain low defense budgets and to focus on economic development. In short, the U.S. military presence has given East Asia security at low cost.
Just as the U.S. military presence promotes stability in the region, a sudden reduction or complete withdrawal of U.S. presence could affect the balance of power and provide room for regional powers such as China, India, and Japan to flex their muscles. Concerned for their security, smaller countries could engage in a debilitating arms race, and tensions previously contained could be unleashed. The result would be a more uncertain and unstable region.
Japan in particular remains a concern for many Asians. Japan still has not apologized openly for the atrocities it committed during World War II. Younger generations of Japanese, who have not experienced war, may not feel responsible for what happened or be concerned that it could happen again. Indeed, some younger Japanese politicians have said Japan needs "to be independent of the U.S. and consider security issues" on its own. Japan's reluctance to admit its wrongdoing continues to create anxiety in other countries that it might begin to rearm.
The United States Needs East Asia
The United States has stated that it remains committed to the security of East Asia, and its interests in East Asia continue to grow. These interests can be divided into the following categories:
- Political. The 21st century already has been called the "Asian Century." Despite the end of the "Eurocentric Cold War," Korea remains divided and the Taiwan situation remains unresolved. The importance of East Asia to the United States should continue to grow "whether due to its successes and strengths, or to the problems it could generate from weakness and strife." A military presence in East Asia allows the United States to continue to mete out a quick and decisive response against any threat. Its ability or inability to maintain a military presence also affect sits credibility as a world superpower.
- Economic. East Asia currently has a third of the world's population. Asia's expanding population underlies its potential to be the "largest and most powerful economic grouping in the world," with an expected growth rate of 6% per year over the next two decades. The region's share of global gross domestic product could increase to about one-third by 2025, with Europe accounting for about onefifth. All of this means a huge market for U.S. goods as well as jobs for its people. With more than 90% percent of U.S. trade going by sea, the United States also has an inherent and vested economic interest in ensuring access to the sea lanes of communications, including the vital Malacca Strait and the Indonesian archipelago.
- Security. While economic growth promotes stability and cooperation among East Asian states, territorial problems coupled with mutual suspicions will produce a volatile and uncertain geopolitical picture. These include regional and international terrorism, the simmering dispute between India and Pakistan, conflicts over South China Seas jurisdictional claims, Cambodia's future, Burma's fate, Indonesia's economic crisis, and illegal migration issues. There are many potential flashpoints in the region that could derail economic development, threaten regional stability, and severely damage U.S. interests in the region.
Dealing with Strategic Challenges
The future of the U.S. military presence depends on how the United States and East Asia deal with strategic challenges. The choice for the United States has been stated succinctly: "Either remain engaged at greater short-term peril and political cost to ourselves, or disengage at the potential cost of greater long-term peril to everyone." As a global power with special interests in East Asia, the United States must be in the driver's seat to shape the region's security environment. Global power brings with it global responsibilities.
The United States and East Asia should adopt a holistic view that a long-term U.S. military presence is needed to promote peace and deter aggression in the region. Through forward presence, the United States can provide near-real-time response to crises. On the other hand, adopting a narrow mind-set that the U.S. military presence is required only to deal with short-term threats, such as from North Korea or the current war on terrorism, would be self-defeating if the two Koreas reunite or when organizations such as al Qaeda are vanquished.
The United States should align its national policy with its interests in East Asia, instead of adopting a one-size-fits-all approach. The U.S. public and Congress should realize that their interests and those of East Asia coincide, and that the benefits from a continuing presence will outweigh the costs or risks. Economic growth in East Asia will provide more jobs for Americans and more profits for U.S. companies. The United States should deepen and broaden its relationship with the region, instead of focusing only on a few "pivotal" states. To gain the trust of East Asians, the United States should be less critical of, and more willing to accept, democracy with an "Asian flavor."
On the other hand, East Asia should recognize the stabilizing and calming influence provided by the U.S. military, which allows East Asia to focus on its economic development. It should encourage the United States to remain engaged in the region, through words and deeds. It should help share the burden based on the respective national abilities. This could be worked out through regular policy meetings to accommodate concerns of the host nations. Japan, for instance, must recognize that should U.S. forces be withdrawn, its own defense budget could increase by much more than the $4.5 billion it now contributes to the United States annually. In short, this is not a financial issue, but a security issue.
For Singapore, we recognize the importance of the U.S. military presence in our region. Despite its small size (one-fifth the size of Rhode Island), Singapore has allowed the United States to maintain a logistics base in the country, which provides a surge capability during crises that has been demonstrated amply over the past several months. The new Changi Naval Base, with its deep-water capability that allows the berthing of the largest of U.S. aircraft carriers, has been a boon to U.S. and coalition naval forces heading to the Indian Ocean in support of Operation Enduring Freedom.
Common understanding, trust, and confidence between the United States and East Asia are necessary preconditions to building an effective security community. To promote better understanding between the United States and the region, dialogues and interaction—such as formal conferences organized by the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies—should be strengthened. In addition, interaction in a more relaxed setting should be encouraged. Singapore, for example, initiated a "summer school" in 1999 that encourages interaction among senior officers from the region.
The prospect of U.S. military presence depends on how the challenges are managed, shaped, and influenced. The willingness to acknowledge these challenges, coupled with clear and unambiguous national policy and the ability to undertake the commitments together with all partners, will result in a well-respected and continuous U.S. military presence in East Asia. On the other hand, any ignorance of these challenges or failure to respect the sensitivities of the host countries could undermine U.S. participation in the most important political and economic region of the 21st century.
Major Tan attended the 57th Naval Staff Course at the Naval War College in 2000. He just completed a command tour on board a patrol vessel and soon will assume command of a missile corvette.