As U.S. military forces are being reduced and reconfigured to effect the post-Cold War environment, U.S. strategic forces also are being cut. In his final report to the President and Congress in January, outgoing Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen stated:
The United States continues to work toward further agreed, stabilizing reductions in strategic nuclear arms, and is confident that once the Treaty on Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (START II) has entered into force, it can maintain the required deterrent at the force levels envisioned in a future treaty (START III), as agreed to in the Helsinki Accords and reinforced at Cologne, Germany, in June 1999, and in Moscow, Russia, in June of 2000.
Under the START II force levels—which were to take effect on 31 December 2007—the Navy was to have 14 strategic missile submarines (SSBNs) carrying an aggregate of 336 Trident submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) with not more than 1,750 warheads. Over the next few years, the four oldest Trident submarines, capable of carrying 96 missiles, were to be retired, have their reactors removed, and eventually be scrapped. Thus, by the end of 2007, the Navy's Trident force would provide 78% of the ballistic missile warheads with 36% of the launch vehicles (missiles and bombers).
At this writing, however, it appears that the Bush administration has decided to cut the Trident force to 12 submarines. And consideration is being given to an even smaller strategic submarine force or to adopting a single-crew manning policy for SSBNs.
At the same time, the Air Force's land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and manned bombers are being reduced to meet the START II requirements.
With respect to the Trident force, in December 2000 the Navy issued instructions to begin the inactivation of the Ohio (SSBN-726) and Florida (SSBN-728). No schedule for their deactivation and strike from the Naval Vessel Register has been produced, but it is expected that they will be dismantled and their nuclear reactors removed in 2002. Four other SSBNs may be taken out of service, but their fate is less clear.
The submarine community has been pressing for the conversion of four boats to combination Tomahawk cruise missile/special operations submarines (SSGNs), but there has been little movement on this proposal. Last year the Navy and Department of Defense decided to refuel several attack submarines of the Los Angeles (SSN-688) class rather than retiring them as planned. Now 55 attack submarines, increased from 50, will be retained in commission. These refuelings have taken a bite out of the money that would have been available to initiate SSGN conversions.
In addition, strict adherence to arms limitation agreements would require removal rather than modification of the missile sections of the proposed SSGN submarines. That would cause a major increase in costs. The Navy previously had estimated the price tag for four SSGN conversions as $1.994 billion for development and conversion and $.440 billion for refueling (reactor cores). If the Trident missile section is removed and a new-built Tomahawk launcher section provided, the costs would jump by about $500 million per submarine, according to Department of Defense estimates, for a total of more than $1 billion per submarine (fiscal 1998 dollars). Historically, however, actual submarine construction and conversion costs have tended to be significantly higher than estimated.
These submarines would have a large Tomahawk battery (126-154 missiles) as well as provisions to support SEALs and other special operations forces, but the proposed conversions have been highly controversial. Accordingly, the future of these submarines is not confirmed. If not converted to SSGNs, the Michigan (SSBN-727), Georgia (SSBN-729), Henry M. Jackson (SSBN-730), and Alabama (SSBN-731) would be discarded under the Bush administration plan.
Trident SSBN Force. The 12 Trident SSBNs that will form the sea-based leg of U.S. strategic offensive forces will include the Alaska (SSBN-732) and Nevada (SSBN-733), now undergoing conversion from the Trident C4 missile to the more-capable D-5 variant, plus SSBNs 734 through 743, all of which were built with a D-5 capability.
Today, the D-5 missiles are armed with eight Mark 5 reentry bodies, each fitted with a W88 nuclear warhead having an explosive force of about 300-475 kilotons or the W76 warhead having a yield of about 100 kilotons. (Only some 400 W88 warheads have been produced.)
To meet the SALT II requirements, the D-5 missiles will have to be downloaded to an average of six warheads per missile (i.e., 12 submarines x 24 missiles x 6 warheads = 1,728). Another alternative that has been suggested is to reduce the Trident force to ten submarines, which would permit an average of seven warheads per missile. Ten submarines still could provide an at-sea force of five or six submarines, which proponents of the reduction believe would be a sufficient sea-based strategic offensive force.
Alternatively, as another means of reducing costs while keeping a viable SSBN force, some analysts in the Department of Defense are examining the cost savings versus capability loss of a shift to single crews. Maintaining the 12 SSBNs with single crews could provide a nominal at-sea force of perhaps four submarines, with another few ready to go to sea at short notice (i.e., within a couple of days).
The 12 submarines armed with the D-5 missile—the SSBN-732 through 743—were completed from 1986 to 1997. Navy planning now provides for those submarines to have a service life of 42-44 years. The oldest of the 12 would not have to be replaced until the late 2020s.
Meanwhile, efforts will be made to extend the D-5 service life to that of the submarines. The Air Force has begun preliminary planning for a Minuteman ICBM replacement about 2020. One proposal is that the Navy and Air Force examine the possibility of a single missile that could be land or sea based. (Because of the lengthy development time, efforts for such a weapon—or weapons—must be initiated soon.)
Slow-rate production of the highly successful D-5 continues. The missile has an impressive test program, with only 5 of 112 launches having failed; the last 90 launches have been successful. Significantly, the Trident missiles are test launched from operational submarines. This is in marked contract to the land-based ICBMs, which, even with dummy warheads, cannot be launched from operational silos because they would fly over populated areas to reach test ranges. The missiles are removed from the operational silo, trucked-flown-trucked to a test silo at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, checked out (tweaked), and then launched.
Although no new SSBN construction is being considered at this time, there has been some thought given to an SSBN variant of the Virginia (SSN-774) class. The ongoing Navy-Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency study of submarine payloads and sensors could address this issue in a later phase.
Land-based ICBM Force. Today, the U.S. Air Force maintains an ICBM force of 500 Minuteman III missiles and 47 Peacekeeper (MX) missiles. All ICBMs are in hardened, underground silos in the western states. There are two variants of the Minuteman in service—200 carry three W62 warheads of 170-kilotons and 300 have three W78 warheads of 335-kilotons. Each Peacekeeper is armed with ten W87 300-kiloton warheads.
The Minuteman missiles currently are being "remanufactured" with rehabilitated rocket engines and improved (more accurate) guidance packages. The upgrades of 500 are to be completed by 2008. Separate from this effort, the missiles' payloads will be reduced under START II to a single warhead.
At the same time, the entire Peacekeeper ICBM force will be dismantled under the terms of START II. Two of the 16 missiles slated for deactivation in 2001 were "destroyed" in January-the upper stage (and warhead) dismantled and the two lower stages retained as launch vehicles for satellites. (Russian officials argue that the entire missile must be destroyed.) The W87 warheads from the retired Peacekeepers are being rehabilitated, presumably for use on Trident D-5 missiles.
Accordingly, the U.S. land-based missile force will decline to 500 single-warhead missiles by 2007. These will require replacement by about 2020, presumably on a one-for-one basis insofar as the numbers of missiles and warheads are concerned. There may be more flexibility with regard to basing, i.e., some fraction of the 500 may be shifted to submarines, an especially practical approach if the same basic missile could be employed as an SLBM/ICBM.
Heavy bombers. The strategic bomber picture is even more complex, with the term heavy now being used by DoD officials. The current heavy bomber force consists of 93 B-1s, 21 B-2 Spirits, and 94 B-52H Stratofortresses.
The B-1 force is dedicated to conventional operations, and the aircraft have been refitted for that role. Of the 94 B-52Hs, 18 are considered attrition/reserve aircraft. Thus the operational heavy/strategic bomber force consists of 97 aircraft. They can carry a variety of nuclear and conventional guided weapons.
The B-52s proved very effective in the area bombing role during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, and the B-2s demonstrated their effectiveness during operation Allied Force, the air campaign against Yugoslavia in 2000. Flying from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, the eight combat ready Block 30 B-2s—those with the most advanced stealth configuration and avionics upgrade—flew 45 combat sorties, attacking their targets at night and often in weather conditions that stymied other strike aircraft. On those 45 sorties the B-2s released about 700 guided weapons, almost all approximately 2,000-pound GBU-31 JDAM or GBU-36 munitions, for a total drop of some 700 tons of ordnance.
This was a most impressive combat achievement and has led some members of Congress to again raise the issue of producing additional B-2 bombers. Although the B-2 has been a costly aircraft, proponents note that the up-front costs already have been amortized against the original buy of 21 aircraft.
Also impressive is the continuing service by the B-52H, which first flew on 8 May 1961, albeit having undergone several major modernizations. The current force, from 102 aircraft of the H variant that were produced through October 1962, is expected to continue in service at least into the 2020s.
While both the United States and Russia are reducing their strategic nuclear forces, the superpower status of the United States remains obvious and unquestioned in this sphere. Still, the Russian government will attempt to enhance the status of its strategic forces—primarily in land-based ICBMs—in part to demonstrate that it could overcome any national ballistic missile defense system developed by the United States. This point is particularly important for the Russian government as it opposes U.S. developments in this field.