Fighter Aviation on the Brink

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By Commander Daniel R. Donoghue, U.S. Navy

The challenges facing naval aviation are formidable. After Jen years of declining budgets ^0r aircraft procurement, virtu- ^aI|y every aircraft-type on board °^Ur carriers needs replacement ^S|multaneously. Most critical, ^w'th inventory shortages upon us now, is the A-6.

One bright spot is the devel­opment of the A-12 to alleviate me crisis in medium attack. Nevertheless, there is no doubt nbout the trend for available dol- ,^ars to rebuild carrier aviation: it >s downward.

Leading the procession to the brink of extinction is our fighter rorce. Congress included a Poison-pill clause in the fiscal Year 1990 funding bill, stating that 24 F-14Ds will be funded— '8 new, 6 re-manufactured from b-14As—but those will be the ^ast of the new Tomcats, and the assembly line must be closed "'hen they are completed. This move will result in an inventory shortfall in the late 1990s that ^Wlll become unmanageable after ^lhe turn of the century. The con­dition is alleviated little by re­ductions in the numbers of air wings, currently 13 active and 2 reserve. Such force reduc­tions lower the inventory re­quirement for fighter aircraft by approximately 30 per air wing but this “savings” is absorbed by the precipitous drop in avail­able F-14 airframes beginning in 2002, when more than 40 air­craft per year will reach their fatigue life and be retired.

. The combination of F-14 attri- t'on (five to seven per year) and mtirement increases pressure for ⁽he acquisition of the Navy Ad­^vanced Tactical Fighter (NATF).

The various technologies em­bodied in the NATF program dearly define the future of lighter aviation. Its price tag, however, may be its greatest

weakness: the cost of achieving this level of superiority will be significant.

This leads to the paradox that Navy leaders now face regarding the future of fighter aviation: can we afford to buy a new fighter now in sufficient num­bers? Can we afford not to buy the NATF to avert a crisis in fighter inventory—not to men­tion capability—such as we have today with the A-6?

Options exist, but clearly a course must be chosen soon. If we decide to do it right, and continue a commitment to a next-generation fighter, then it must be given proper funding priority.

Maintaining the status quo would be a second option. That would keep the F-14D line funded, and procure sufficient numbers to bridge the gap until the time arrives when we can afford a next-generation fighter. This make-do strategy has the advantage of creating some breathing room in the budget by avoiding the simultaneous outlay of research, development, and procurement dollars that would occur if two new aircraft were to be procured concurrently.

This decoupling would allow development of an Advanced Tactical Surveillance Aircraft (ATSA) to replace the E-2, the EA-6B, and S-3. The new fighter would then be funded in sequence.

Staggered funding of new starts could alleviate the inven­tory falloff through 2005, but what of the performance of the F-14 vis-a-vis the threat? If any­thing other than a hollow force is to be planned, this issue must not be ignored. The F-14D has significant growth potential to remain a front-line fighter through 2005. If the course of maintaining the F-14 inventory

is chosen, the full potential of performance improvement op­tions must be explored to meet the threat then.

One option that appears lucra­tive, but must be avoided, is the temptation to fill projected fighter inventory shortfalls with less expensive F/A-18Cs. Not only does the F/A-18 inventory experience large numbers of air­frame retirements at approxi­mately the same time as the F-14 (potentially creating its own inventory shortfall), but the Hornet was never designed to shoulder the full range of perfor­mance requirements for a Navy fighter.

If naval aviation is to preserve its ability to maintain air superi­ority past the turn of the cen­tury, both in outer-air-battle and power-projection scenarios, then a course for fighter aircraft must be chosen in the near term. The state of affairs in the planning, programming, and procurement arenas today is such that it takes well over ten years to deliver a new aircraft to the fleet. If the NATF is kept on schedule, and is bought in relatively large numbers, a manageable fighter inventory will evolve. If higher priority new-start aircraft pro­grams are chosen, then we must act quickly to augment F-14D inventory with continued new- airframe construction, to avert a severe fighter shortfall post- 2000, and we should place a high priority upon continued evolution of the F-14D capabil­ity. Either way, we should de­cide soon, to avoid the demise of fighter aviation.

Commander Daniel R. Donoghue, U.S. Navy, directs Fighter Programs in the office of the Deputy Chief of Naval Operations (Naval Warfare).