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Imagine a nation as large as the contiguous United States. Completely surround that nation with water and provide it with vast interior regions that are inhospitable, if not uninhabitable. Populate this nation with only 14.5 million people. Give this nation island neighbors on the north and east and none at all on the south or west. Finally, place this nation well south of Asia and too far from Africa or South America to be considered close to either. Now, open your world atlas to “A” and examine Australia.
Geopolitical Setting: Were not Australia a continent, it would certainly be the largest island in the world. Because its interior is so inhospitable, the population of Australia is concentrated in a few population centers around the coast, with the larges centers, Sydney and Melbourne, in the southeast. In fact, Australia’s widely scattered coastal population centers make it a modern-day nation of city- states. These city-states are connected by modem rail, air, and road transport networks to move people and cargo, but the bulk of interstate commerce is conducted over the sea.
It is not just interstate commerce that makes the sea important to Australia. Being a nation rich m arable land and natural resources, Australia is a prime exporter of farm products, agricultural commodi-
fies,and minerals. Japan, forexample, imports nearly al1 its iron ore from Australia. Nations in the Middle East exchange their oil for farm animals and meat. •Australia is nearly self-sufficient in petroleum products, importing only approximately 30% of its requirements.) The United States imports large quantities of strategic minerals, such as titanium, cobalt, and manganese, from Australia.
Although geographic separation may create iso- utionist tendencies, Australia reaches outward politically. It actively participates in both United Na- t'ons and British Commonwealth activities and is ^presented in major world political and trade organizations. Australia maintains cordial relations with nearly all nations, and although its government normally supports U. S. policy, it does voice any reservations it may have about it. In the South Pacific region, Australia is frequently regarded by its immediate neighbors (Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, the Solomons, Fiji, and New Zealand) as an articulate spokesman for the rights of “islanders.” In addition, Australia has declared a 200-naut- !Cal mile exclusive economic zone, which brings it mto daily contact with such fishing nations as Japan, me Soviet Union, Taiwan, and South Korea. Australia also possesses territories in the Indian, Pacific, antl Southern oceans and has laid claims totaling 40% of the Antarctic landmass.
Hence, despite its geographic separation, Australia’s trading requirements coupled with its conscious political activity precludes total isolation. As a result, Australia needs a defense that reflects its mternational position. Furthermore, being an island Uution, these defense requirements must attempt to balance the contradiction that while the oceans sur- lQunding Australia provide a defensive bulwark, they Can also act as an avenue for offensive actions from ar> enemy.
Historical Defense Considerations: Australian defense policy has undergone three distinct trans- mrmations. These three transformations have dieted the nature of its current defense forces.
Until the outbreak of World War II, Australia was Protected by British imperial power. In return for mis protection, Australia contributed substantial ‘°rces to the British effort in World War I, and, until EMl, World War II. However, after the fall of Singapore in 1942, British power in Asia slowly eroded. Britain suffered grievous losses at the hands of the ■Japanese and never completely replaced its forces m Asia.
. This loss of British protection did not seriously 'mpact upon Australia, however. The U. S. Army, Under the command of General Douglas Mac Arthur, Used Australia as a training base from which it ul- ‘mately was able to launch the final offensive against ■Japan. These Army forces, along with the U. S. Navy forces, which scored an earlier victory at the
Battle of the Coral Sea, also helped protect Australia from invasion by Japanese forces.
The strengthened ties with the United States continued after the war and reached a zenith at the conclusion of the Australia-New Zealand-United States (ANZUS) treaty in 1951. With this treaty, Australia recognized the United States as its close ally and ultimate protector.
The Vietnam War provided the catalyst for the last transformation of Australian defense policy. As U. S. forces withdrew from Southeast Asia, Australia sensed that the United States might end its active participation in providing protection. In spite of its ANZUS obligations, the United States made no overtures to alter this perception. Thus, Australia appraised its immediate geopolitical circumstances and commenced developing a defense policy more closely attuned to immediate threats to its national security.
This transformation has motivated Australian defense policy since at least 1970, irrespective of government leanings. Although the ANZUS alliance still forms the foundation for Australian defense, the pact is no longer perceived as its ultimate structure. Selfreliance, rather than dependence on another major power, has become the key precept of Australia’s defense policy.
The Threat: Considering its lack of immediate neighbors, conceiving of a credible threat to Australia seems difficult—at least in the form of one nation taking overt action against it. But because it is a maritime nation, Australia could be threatened by any nation possessing military forces capable of interdicting its sea lines of communication (SLOCs) or other maritime resources or capable of attacking its overseas territories. Thus, the type, intensity, and duration of a threat dictates the sort of defense forces Australia needs.
For example, Table 1 describes a number of threats to Australia’s security and the types of forces required to deter and overcome these threats.
One factor common to each of these threats is that any action—whatever its level of violence— must originate in the maritime sphere. This factor, more than any other, dictates the sort of defense forces required.
Although there has been heated debate in the Australian press concerning the size of the defense forces, there has been nearly unanimous consensus on their two purposes: deterrence—any threatening nation must perceive that the price for aggressive action against Australia is very high; and warfighting capability—if action were taken, Australia must possess defense forces prepared to take resolute action.
If necessary, Australia could request U. S. assistance through an appropriate section of the ANZUS treaty, but its defense forces should obviate this fallback contingency.
If need be to meet any regional threat on its own, Australia has capably built up its defense forces, including RAA helicopters, beached at Sabina Point, Queensland, during exercises, RAAF P-3Cs, important in the maritime interdiction role, and RAN U. S.-built Perth -class guided missile destroyers, similar to the U. S. Navy’s Charles F. Adams class.
Even though the subject of threats is of great import, an Australian Government has never needed to identify a possible threatening nation by name in order to justify an increased defense expenditure. It has been the primary objective, however, to ensure, irrespective of threat, that the defense forces are kept sufficiently large and adequately prepared to represent a credible force capable of protecting national interests while maintaining a viable deterrent effect.
The Royal Australian Army: Because of Australia’s small population and geographic isolation from enemies, maintenance of a large army has been both demographically and politically infeasible. The Royal Australian Army (RAA) is organized around one infantry division with three brigades of two infantry battalions, 16 various regiments, and is supported by a call-up force of 31,700. Active strength of the army is approximately 32,000, making it the largest defense force in Australia.
Although the army possesses highly visible and technically advanced weapon systems, such as Leopard-II tanks, Rapier surface-to-air missile sys
tems, and Bell helicopters, it does so in low nurn bers. For example, Australia has 103 Leopard- tanks—total. .
This factor does not relegate the army to solely visibility role. The RAA has capable antiterror forces and its own, albeit limited, organic air trans port capability. To a certain extent, the army is a ^ ready stationed close to any potential action in Australia (most likely in the north or northwest), tnu movement to any possible continental trouble sp could be accomplished with a minimum of e °r„ Training for such contingencies is extensive, and nu rale is high. In the final analysis, the army cou fight an attacking enemy, but because of its S'Z^ not for any protracted period. Although the RAA the largest of Australia’s defense forces, it is 1 weakest in terms of operational funding and long term defense planning. .
Thus, the RAA has been formed for last reso defensive purposes in wartime. It is structuic employ its limited but technologically advance weapons in a final coup-de-grace against an ene. that has already been disjointed and attrited duri s
Table 1 Threats to Australia's Security
Threats
Terrorist acts against offshore oil resources or illegal acts related to oceanic mineral resources or fishing zones
Sinking Australian merchant shipping vessels on high seas or in choke points/straits; sinking ships of other nations trading with Australia
Seizure of remote Australian overseas territories or isolated portions of continent itself
Nuclear threat to U. S. interests/bases in Australia without direct threat to Australian interests
Overt threat to Australian national or overseas interests by the Soviet Union, which may encompass any or all of the above threats ________
Counterforces____________________________
Maritime surveillance and interdiction; mobile nava| forces with extended deployment capability; sPeC‘ counterinsurgency forces; forces rapidly deploys to meet threat .
Maritime interdiction; self-contained escort f°rC^’ interoperability with potential allies and/or other fected nations; forces rapidly deployable to me threat
Maritime surveillance and interdiction; rapidly^ ployable naval and ground forces for counterot e sive; naval carrier air assets to supp counteroffensive
Full-scale mobilization of Australian forces to sup port the United States (assumes ANZUS provisio invoked); large maritime forces for self-protec • following threat of nuclear attack All forces required; U. S. assistance assumed
Proceedings / March P®
Jts approach to Australia. This strategy does not appear unrealistic, given the current defensive c,rcumstances.
t , VU R°yal Australian Air Force: The Royal Aus- ^'a >an Air Force (RAAF), though a small compo- cnt ot the defense forces, possesses or will possess s0rne of the more modern and advanced weapon Astems in any nation’s inventory. Because of its ^all numbers, RAAF aircraft are often assigned ultip|e—aru] potentially contradictory—missions, evertheless, the RAAF is a highly motivated or- anization, well prepared and trained to respond to l|A treats to the nation.
he RAAF fighter force is currently organized °und the French-built Mirage-111 aircraft, origi- a y purchased by Australia to counter the perceived threat of Indonesian Air Force “Badger” bombers. The Mirage is an old but venerable aircraft and has been well maintained in its many years of service to the RAAF. RAAF Mirages are capable of Mach 1.4 speed and can operate in a wide range of altitudes with excellent weapons-carrying capability. Service life for the Mirages has been extended until after 1985 to compensate for the later-than-planned delivery of the ordered U.S. F/A-18 Hornet aircraft. Attrition of the Mirages has been accelerating. Although the aircraft are not now unsafe to fly, from 1984 to 1986, Australia will have a reduced capability with the Mirages and with only a few Hornets having entered the active fighter force.
The projected F/A-18 buy is pegged at only 75 units; however, a definite long-range bomber threat
against Australia does not exist now, nor is one predicted for the foreseeable future. As a result, the F/A-18 force can be used for close air support and maritime-related interceptor/escort roles—roles it is quite able to perform. Strike missions in the RAAF are performed capably by F-111C and F-1I1A aircraft. Besides the United States, Australia is the only nation to operate F-llls. It currently possesses 24 of these aircraft, having recently had its option to order four more filled. Four of the 24 F-l 1 Is are equipped with semipermanent reconnaissance packages; the other 20 are used for ground support, long-range strikes, and maritime interdiction. In the maritime interdiction role, the F-llls, relying on their superior speed, low-flying capabilities, and electronic countermeasures/electronic countercountermeasures (ECM/ECCM) systems to achieve surprise and escape destruction, are used to drop bombs on ships. Although the F-llls must depend on targeting data from friendly supporting platforms using jam-prone UHF/HF circuits, exercise experience indicates that in a maritime strike role, the F-llls have a reasonable chance of inflicting damage against all but the most heavily armed modern warships. The damage inflicted on British ships by Argentine Air Force aircraft during the Falklands War demonstrates that even relatively less capable aircraft than the F-l 11 can, indeed, cause significant damage. For patrol, maritime surveillance, and antisubmarine (ASW) missions, the RAAF has two squadrons of P-3 aircraft, equipped with ten P-3Cs and ten P-3Bs, respectively. The P-3Cs are equipped with the Harpoon and a British-designed acoustic processing unit (AQS-901) that makes the aircraft a potent ASW search-and-attack platform. Australia has recently ordered an additional ten P-3C aircraft to replace its older, less capable fleet of ten P-3Bs. When the additional P-3Cs are on the line by early 1986, Australia will possess a proven effective, fast- reaction front-line offensive maritime strike air force. The experiences of the Falklands are again enlightening. The RAAF has trained extensively to shape a potent maritime interdiction force using its F-l 1 Is and P-3s. Even the modest successes of the Argentine Air Force against the Royal Navy ships would lend credence to the notion that the RAAF would fare even better against a similarly equipped naval force which threatened its national interest and which could be attacked from its bases. The RAAF also possesses squadrons of C-130 transports (24 total aircraft) and one squadron of Caribou aircraft to meet the services' logistics requirements. Also in the RAAF inventory are various helicopter and training support aircraft. In recent years, RAAF aircraft and aircrews have gained much experience through increased flight hours and overseas deployments. P-3s and F-llls | now operate throughout Hawaii, the South Pacific, and Indian Ocean on a variety of national and allied tasks. Participation by the RAAF in allied exercises, particularly with U. S. forces, has been significant. Considering the small numbers of total aircraft in its inventory, the RAAF appears to be a well-structured and an increasingly more visible defense force capable of dissuading an attacker or countering any long-range bomber threat to the continent. Royal Australian Navy: The Royal Australian Navy (RAN) is another small defense force, capable of limited projections of power around the continent and littoral and ideally suited for operations with allied navies. Until recently, the RAN was built around HMAS Melbourne, a small 20,000-ton aircraft carrier that deployed with a mix of A-4 aircraft and an ASW force consisting of S-2s and helicopters. Fen many years, the government recognized the value of an aircraft carrier in overall defense planning, but agonized over the cost and availability of a suitable replacement for this ship. When the British Government announced its intentions to lay up HMb Invincible, Australia eagerly opted to purchase he at a bargain price. Now, with the Falklands Wat over, the British have asked the Australians to reconsider their purchase. Reluctantly, the Australian Government has agreed to drop its purchase option- and, with no readily available alternatives, a futuie aircraft carrier for the RAN is in great doubt. HMA- Melbourne, meanwhile, has been relegated to a shipyard. The cost for extensively upgrading her capabilities appears to be an undesirable alternative- Therefore, for the foreseeable future at least, any qualitative assessment of the RAN should be con ducted without reference to a carrier, even thoug in wartime, HMAS Melbourne could be pressed into very limited service; she can be returned to ope1' ational status as a helo carrier in 26 weeks. The remainder of the fleet includes three U. o-' built, Australian-modified Perth-class guided missis destroyers (DDGs; similar to the U. S. Charles ' • Adams class), six British-built “Oberon”-cIass long- range diesel submarines, three new-construction guided missile frigates (FFGs; the Oliver Haiti’ Perry class), one British-built Daring-class oe" stroyer, six “River”-class frigates, and a variety 0 smaller craft. The RAN also possesses numerous support units (a new underway replenishment tankei is under construction), some coastal patrol boats (including the new Fremantle class), and three Bn ish-built “Ton”-class minesweepers. The RAN has a modest amphibious capability built around one recently commissioned LST and a small number o utility landing craft. Given the Australian defense policy with its maritime orientation, it should be no surprise that thL’ RAN receives the most attention of the defense’ planners. For example, officially, the present John M. Fraser Government still desires replacing HMA |
| Priu-uiHinil, / MarCh U ‘ |
Melbourne with either a U. S.-designed, Spanish- U'lt, sea control V/STOL carrier or a U. S.-built shlP not unlike the USS Guam (LPH-9). So serious this decision for the Fraser Government that for he first time, perhaps a serious, credible threat would ave to be identified to justify such an expenditure. ‘Ven the budgetary and political considerations in- olved, it appears unlikely, however, that HMAS elbourne will be replaced. The government is, owever, signaling its intention to expand its force s .FFGs by building up to four similar follow-on h‘Ps in its own shipyards. Moreover, the “Oberon” m. marines will soon be equipped with the Harpoon lssile system, significantly increasing the offensive aPabilities of these platforms. t Nevertheless, the RAN suffers its difficulties. The ndency not to replace the carrier robs the navy of tj c flexibility inherent in taking its air to the mari- ^e sphere. The navy’s Fremantle-class patrol boats f c s'°w, overweight, and carry no surface-to-sur- Ce missiles in a region where those weapon sys- n rn.s abound in the much smaller navies of Indo- ad r3, Sin§aPore’ and Malaysia. The FFGs, in her *°n’ were Purchased without helicopters. The pc 1CoPter ultimately chosen for the FFGs will de- Us ki’ l° a 2reat extent, upon obtaining one that is js a on the frigates, the follow-on carrier (if there °«e), as well as being usable by the RAAF. De- thi' C tlle cost savin8s resulting from a larger buy, s may be a difficult order to fill. Moreover, the
follow-on FFGs were to be constructed in Australian shipyards, which are unfortunately plagued with labor unrest. If this unrest continues, the Australian Government may be coerced into canceling its plans to build its own ships, opting instead for purchases from the United States—but at a lesser magnitude because of the increased costs.
Finally, the RAN is east coast-oriented, with its fleet headquarters and nearly all ships stationed in Sydney. Even though Indian Ocean deployments have been more or less continuous since 1980, they are indeed quite difficult to support or command and control from Sydney. Development of the Stirling Naval Base (near Perth on the west coast) and the homeporting there of a DDG and two FFGs (with attendant support vessels) will help increase exposure in the Indian Ocean region. Unfortunately, as is the case in most of the Western democracies.
progress on these items is painstakingly slow. These important projects are still in the planning stage. Considering the long coastline and the corresponding requirements for a navy to protect coastal SLOCs, the RAN falls far short, in numbers, of being able to simultaneously project power, defeat an enemy approaching in the maritime sphere, and protect SLOCs. It is also questionable whether the navy could augment its meager forces in the west or if it could handle a simultaneous east/west threat. RAN cooperation with the RAAF helps protect national interests, but extended offensive capability— the domain of the navy—is suspect. Even so, the RAN is an efficient organization possessing a wide mixture of vessel types. Not only that, the RAN is highly interoperable with allied and U. S. forces, and, if required by ANZUS obligations, could augment the U. S. Navy in the Western Pacific or Indian Ocean. To a limited extent, this augmentation has already been occurring, thus building RAN expertise and operational capabilities even further. Conclusions: The Australian defense forces, despite their small size, are active, well equipped, and increasingly more visible in their region. RAA, RAAF, and RAN forces are frequently assigned to participate in exercises with the United States and commonwealth countries, in both Australian and more distant theaters. Operationally, Australian naval presence in the Indian Ocean is increasing, and airforce P-3s conduct routine maritime surveillance flights around Australia and overseas. These operational deployments and exercises increase training and expertise, but still they are of a limited extent and duration. Budgetary considerations often preclude protracted and permanent out- of-area deployments, because the small forces are already heavily committed to coastal surveillance and fishery patrols. In the future, the homeporting of destroyers at Stirling and the recently approved construction of a new RAAF base at Derby in the northwest should increase the visibility of the Australian defense forces in the important Indian Ocean region and may even facilitate fulfillment of the more mundane defense requirements. In wartime, even when budgets are tossed to the wind, Australian defense forces may be stretched offensively to the limit of capability. Nevertheless, the defense forces appear adequate to handle any regional threat provided the threat is of short duration, is directed against one or two geographically close objectives, and no significant losses are suffered. However, a regional power seeking a war of attrition nearer its own territory could pose problems for the Australian defense forces. Since Australian defense is predicated with little expectation ot U. S. assistance, Australia’s forces must be committed to meeting a regional dispute on their own. If unsuc- | cessful, Australia would be quite vulnerable. The same considerations apply to a regional power conducting simultaneous Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean offensive actions against Australia. It might take weeks for Australia to deploy a naval task force to the Indian Ocean to protect national interests, sue as island possessions or SLOCs. National objectives will be much more difficult to achieve without carrier air power. RAAF assets would have to be divided; this division would leave insufficient toices to handle either threat satisfactorily. Fortunately- no regional power at the present time or for the foreseeable future seems capable or willing to conduct this type of offensive operation. __ U. S. assistance can be assumed in any protracte action directed by the Soviet Union against Australia, but U. S. response to a lower level of action by the Soviet Union against Australia or directe against U. S. facilities in Australia is more ditficu to predict. These lower level threats could occur in a variety of scenarios short of an outright U- ■ Soviet war. For example, suppose the Soviets sho^ down an Australian surveillance aircraft conducting “provocative” operations. What would be the Aus tralian response? Or the U. S. response? Or supp°se the Soviet Union launched a nuclear strike again* U. S. facilities in Australia in an effort to measure U. S. resolve to defend itself and its treaty oblige tions. Since only U. S. strategic facilities outside the United States were struck and civilian casua ties, American or Australian, would be small- t response by the United States would be fraught wi ^ great escalatory danger. Similarly, outright Sovic^ seizure of Australian overseas territories would tc* both the United States and Australia. In the nnu analysis, however, such contingencies—though cc tainly plausible—appear remote, except in the co ^ text of an impending worldwide conflict. In such situation, Australia presumably could not and woU not remain neutral, preferring instead to support1 United States regardless of how dangerous the co sequences of such a choice may be. Thus, it is fortunate that Australia need not pD for worst-case scenarios; instead, it can concent) u ton more realistic, fundamental national defense con cerns. As a result, Australia has structured its fense forces to be effective deterrent forces, cupa*3 of inflicting punishment on any nation inclined press Australia offensively. Lieutenant Commander Wagner graduated from Tufts Univet^L and was commissioned in June 1971. In September 1" ' s, reported to No. 10 Squadron, RAAF, in Edinburgh. Sout f tralia. for a two-year tour as an exchange officer. Comma - Wagner has amassed more than 3,600 flight hours in the aircraft. He is presently assigned as Executive Assistant ‘- v_ Director, Strategy, Plans and Policy Division (OP-60), t P and will soon report to VP-26 in Brunswick. Maine. |