This issue of the Proceedings—the first to be devoted completely to an analysis of our Navy's future—illustrates new imperatives of our time. Forecasting the future is no longer an optional process reserved to fiction writers or mystics. We have arrived at a point where such factors as quantum improvements in weapons, long lead times, and shortened warning times have made it mandatory that we predict as accurately as possible the requirements of the next decade, and beyond.
There was a day when military planning was adequate if it treated the capabilities of the forces in existence, paying due regard to the possibility of their increase in size or numbers, but ignoring any possibility of radical change. Nelson's ships were certain to sail as the winds permitted, not to submerge or to rumble onto a beachhead in amphibious assault. Today we face the virtual certainty that radical changes will occur. We have seen speeds, ranges, and explosive power increase many-fold, and we must anticipate more of the same. Time factors have been both compressed and expanded—compressed with respect to warning time, data processing, and communications, but expanded in terms of research, production, testing, and training. Political, economic, and human factors deserve and require more consideration than ever before. Each of the dynamic factors we must deal with multiplies the complexities of the others, and continually raises the quality of the analysis and planning we must produce.
Meeting our daily commitments will continue to require us to insure that the equipment we have is used to its full potential. In addition, and for the long pull, I believe that to a greater and greater degree our successes will depend upon the genius for identifying and exploiting the event of today which will set the trend of tomorrow. The potentially enormous military significance of increasing numbers of scientific achievements puts a correspondingly increasing premium on our power to discriminate between the worthwhile and the worthless. There will be, for example, innumerable blind alleys into which we might pour our economic resources. Each of our weapons systems is a potential Maginot Line, vulnerable to that most pathetic of Pentagon classifications—"O B E"—overtaken by events. New proposals and developments abound; who shall say which is most promising?
It is frequently only in retrospect that the profound influence of a decision, a victory, or a development is recognized as a turning point. Very often we became so enmeshed in day-to-day details that the true significance of events is lost to us at the times they transpire. Participants in the Battle of Midway had little reason to know that they were witnessing a turning point in the Pacific war. This phenomenon has a significance of its own when related to today's technological pace. The failure to interpret today the events of today and to forecast their significance has assumed unprecedented practical importance. We must recognize that it requires a conscious, deliberate, and sustained effort on our part to perceive the true meaning of developments as they occur, even though they may be obscured by the press of daily activity.
The recent publication of the Naval Review by the Naval Institute represents a landmark in that it initiates a systematic analysis of important naval events of the preceding year. This issue of the Naval Institute PROCEEDINGS departs from its usual content in that it is devoted wholly to consideration of the Navy of 1973. The two publications together represent practical steps toward improving our ability to evaluate the past and to forecast the future. If our policy formulation is to match the pace of technological development, we must take such steps to encourage the use of what powers we have in observation, comparison, and analysis. It is inevitable that differing opinions will arise, each based upon the best professional judgment of the individual. It should be our view that a spirited and sincere exchange of ideas is a catalyst to the imagination and the wellspring of progress.
We have much to gain from the encouragement of thinking and writing on the Navy's future, and from the subsequent discussions of differing outlooks as they are presented. It will be vitally and increasingly important to us to continue to make decisions as rewarding as those that were made concerning solid propellants, atomic energy, and nuclear propulsion. The difficulty of forecasting the future must not obscure the importance of doing so.
It is no longer our privilege to conjecture idly about the future; it is, rather, imperative that we deliberately seek out and exploit the significant of today if we would master the momentous of tomorrow.
Significant predictions can only be made by people, the keystone and strength of our service. People with imagination, foresight, dedication, and enthusiasm are essential if we are to fulfill our obligations to our country, obligations to keep strong enough to deter any would-be aggressor. We must never lose sight of the fact that we in the United States have no corner on the market of intellectual and imaginative capacity. We must assume that other nations will be striving for achievements in all fields of endeavor, achievements which would tip the balance of power in their favor. Therefore no matter how advanced our technology, no matter how sophisticated our equipment, no matter how unerring our ability to recognize the important, still we must depend upon determined and dedicated men and women who will use their imagination and competence in conjunction with our traditional will to win.
George Anderson
President, U.S. Naval Institute