UNITED STATES AND LATIN AMERICA
Progress of E.R.P.—On Feb. 17 the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee unanimously approved the revised Marshall plan bill and ordered it reported to the Senate. The chief change is that the new bill makes no definite commitment for the full four-year period. It provides 5.3 billion for a 12-month term beginning April 1, 1948, instead of 6.8 billion over 15 months. The measure further provides for a general administrator of cabinet rank and a 12-man advisory board, for an administrator in each nation receiving aid, and for a roving ambassador at large. Representative Christian A. Herter, head of the Joint Congressional Committee which studied conditions in Europe last summer, was mentioned as Senator Vandenberg’s choice for this latter past. Close liaison must be maintained with the Department of State.
Protests from Russia.—The first months of 1948 were marked by a series of protests from the Soviet Union to the United States. The first was a formal note objecting to the reopening of the Mellaha airfield in Tripolitania as in violation of the terms of the Italian peace treaty. This was answered by pointing out that the disposition of the territory was not settled in the treaty and that the reopening was only for the period of British occupation. A second note, sent without consulting Italy, objected to visits of U. S. naval vessels in Italian ports as in violation of the peace treaty provision calling for the evacuation of occupation forces by Dec. 15. In reply it was made clear that the visits were of the usual friendly character made after obtaining the full approval of the Italian Government. A third protest on Feb. 1 complained of alleged “inspection flights” of U. S. Army planes in the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan in which the American craft were said to have dived toward Soviet merchant vessels and “circled them at mast height.”
In further grievance, a February Moscow broadcast charged “American militarization of Iran.” But on this point it was stated that the United States forces in Iran numbered only 40 officers and men, sent at the request of the Iranian Government to aid in training the Army and gendarmerie, and that charges of establishment of airfields and mapping of the Russo-Iranian border were false. Besides, American aid and the presence of American forces in the eastern Mediterranean area were abundantly justified by the aggressions of the Soviet Union and her satellite states, testified to by observers of the United Nations Balkan Committee.
Documentary Strife.—The American State Department in late January published a series of diplomatic documents seized in Germany which revealed more fully Russo-German relations from April, 1939, up to the German attack on Russia in June of 1941. The papers showed Russian initiative in the partnership of August 1939, the plans then laid for division of territories and spheres of influence, and the subsequent friction which led to war. Some three weeks later, the Soviet Information Bureau issued a lengthy reply, the main purport of which was that, as shown by documents not yet published, Franco-British appeasement policies had encouraged Hitler’s eastern aggressions, and that America had connived in these policies and provided capital which aided German rearmament.
Britain’s New Washington Envoy.—It was announced in February that Sir Oliver Franks, aged 43, was to succeed Lord Inverchapel as British Ambassador to the United States. Sir Oliver, a professor of philosophy at Oxford with considerable practical experience in the economic field, was chairman last summer of the 16-power Paris conference in preparation for American aid, and his appointment to Washington was in part based on the need for effective-representation there when the European Recovery Program is put into execution.
Paraguay’s New President.—On February 15 former Finance Minister Natalicio Gonzales was elected President of Paraguay to succeed General Higinio Morinigo. Gonzalez, 50-year-old poet and economist, was the only candidate, since opposition leaders had been driven out of the open. The new President will take office on Aug. 15, unless in the meantime there is interference by the Army, in which Morinigo and Gonzalez exert rival influences.
Falklands Dispute Renewed.—In mid- February the British despatched the cruiser Nigeria, flagship on the South Atlantic station, to the Falkland Islands with the evident intention of supporting British as against Argentine and Chilean claims in that area. In the Falklands, the South Shetland Islands south of Cape Horn, and the adjacent antarctic continent, the claims of the three nations have long been in conflict, Britain’s extending between 20 and 80 degrees west longitude, Argentina’s from 25 to 74, and Chile’s from 53 to 90. Both Chile and Argentina have raised objections to the British proposal to submit the dispute to the International Court of Justice. On Feb. 17 President Videla of Chile visited a Chilean outpost at Greenwich Island in the South Shetlands and next day moved on to another settlement in the Palmer Peninsula of Antarctica. Two Argentine cruisers and several torpedo boats were also reported in these southern waters. Argentina last year set up a weather station in the South Shetlands on Deception Island.
UNITED NATIONS ACTIVITIES
Tasks of UNESCO.—The Foreign Policy Report for Feb. 1 is devoted to a review of United Nations subsidiary organizations, including the World Food Council, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), and the World Health Organization (WHO). Among the activities of UNESCO, brought out at its recent conference in Mexico City, attention is drawn chiefly to its educational “pilot projects,” applied in such selected areas as Hayti; its Hylean Amazon project for a scientific inquiry into the resources, peoples, and development of the vast Amazon basin; its stimulation of cultural exchanges by the awarding of international fellowships; and its share in projects for rehabilitation of war-devastated areas. Though most of the Soviet bloc states are non-members, UNESCO in 1947 increased from 32 to 40 member nations.
Next Assembly in Paris.—Secretary General Trygve Lie announced in February that, by the choice of an eight-nation special committee, the next meeting of the United Nation’s General Assembly in September, 1948, will be held in Paris, France. The chief meeting place will be the Palais de Chaillot, a large building on the Left Bank built for the 1937 World’s Fair.
Maritime Conference.—A United Nations maritime conference, to which the 58 members of the United Nations and 11 nonmembers were invited, was scheduled to hold its first meeting at Geneva, Switzerland, on Feb. 19. A chief aim of the conference will be to set up an international maritime organization. Such an organization, if established, would not have actual powers or control of shipping such as exercised by the wartime United Maritime Authority, but would act as a forum, clearing-house, and advisory body for the member states. It would aid in the formulation and general adoption of safety standards, assist in the removal of restrictions on shipping, and provide a medium for the discussion of international shipping problems.
WESTERN EUROPE
New Irish Government.—As an outcome of the parliamentary elections held in Eire on Feb. 1. it became clear that Eamon de Valera’s Fiana Fail party would have not more than 69 votes in the New Dail of 147 members and would thus have to depend on a half dozen or more votes from the Labor and other groups to maintain a thin majority. At the first meeting of the Dail on Feb. 18, the six minor parties combined to end De Valera’s sixteen years in office and to select John A. Costello, leader of the United Irish (Fine Gael) party, as Prime Minister, with Sean McBride, head of the Republicans, as Minister of Foreign Affairs. The policies of the new coalition are chiefly in the economic field—to reduce the cost of living, promote social security legislation, and increase agricultural and industrial production. Party conflicts over Anglo-Irish relations will be kept in abeyance.
French Franc Devalued.—At the end of January, despite strong objections from the British and from authorities of the International Money Fund, the French government put through its decision to devalue the franc from 119 to 214 to the American dollar. Under the new arrangement, French exporters will be required to exchange one half their dollar gains for francs at the official rate, but can sell the rest, probably at a considerably higher rate, in a free market. A chief object of the change is to increase French exports by enabling exporters to charge less for their goods in foreign markets. A second aim is to pry loose some of the hidden gold in France, estimated at over $2,000,000,000.
To further benefit French trade, the Franco-Spanish frontier, closed for the past two years, was reopened on Feb. 10, and full commercial relations were resumed at the close of the month. A new Franco-Spanish commercial treaty was in prospect.
Moves for European Union.—In a speech before Parliament in late January British Foreign Minister Bevin declared strongly for a “consolidation of western Europe”—a political and economic union of the western European nations linked with America by the European Recovery Program. His proposals were strongly endorsed by Winston Churchill as leader of the British Conservatives and also by the American State Department. Dutch and Belgian political leaders regarded the plan less favorably. Their objections were chiefly that the Bevin proposals were still vague, that to join France and Britain with the Benelux Customs Union would require prolonged and difficult negotiations, and that the smaller states would hesitate to range themselves in a bloc obviously opposed to the Soviets.
Plans for German Economy.—Long-range plans for German economy and for a future merging of the French with the American and British zones were discussed at a meeting of French, British, and American representatives held in London in the last week of February. Representatives of the Benelux Customs Union were also invited. To a Soviet protest that such a meeting violated the Potsdam agreement, the sufficient reply was made that Soviet obstructionism made separate action necessary. The agenda provided for full discussion of measures to promote German recovery in the western zones.
Prior to the meeting, the new Bizonal Economic Administration (outlined in earlier issues) was proclaimed on Feb. 9 and went into full effect on the 24th. The British and United States Military governments also approved a renewal of German raw aluminum manufacture, though its production had been forbidden in the Potsdam agreement. The western zones have previously imported aluminum on U. S. credits, though sufficient bauxite is available in the two zones to produce aluminum up to 50,000 tons.
New Talks on Austria.—Further talks on the Austrian peace treaty terms were opened at London on Feb. 21. Discussion centered on the new Soviet offer to take $200,000,000, payable in dollars or their equivalent within two years, for all the former German industrial properties in Austria to which Russia has laid claim. It was thought that a compromise might be reached between this sum and the flat payment of $100,000,000 suggested earlier by France. In addition, Russia seeks two-thirds of Austria’s current and undeveloped oil production, and a quarter share of the assets of the Danube Shipping Company.
Italian Election Plans.—All parties in Italy reached an agreement in February to refrain from violence and disturbances in the period preceding the election set for April 18. This election appeared certain to develop into a fairly clearcut contest between the Communist-Left Wing Socialist bloc and the coalition headed by the Christian Democratic party of Premier de Gasperi. The Catholic Church, along with the Catholic Action organization, indicated that its powerful influence would be given to the parties of the Right. As another possible influence on the election, the Soviet Union announced on Feb. 17 that it now favored placing Italy’s former African colonies under Italian trusteeship, despite Britain’s wartime pledge that Cyrenaica, at least, would not be restored to Italian rule.
BALKANS AND NEAR EAST
Protest to Rumania.—Both the United States and British Governments in early February sent sharp notes to the Groza Government in Rumania declaring that it had failed to live up to the pledges of democratic government included in the Rumanian peace treaty signed in February of 1947. Freedom of speech, press, and religion had been denied, opposition parties suppressed, and many political prisoners held without trial. Presumably the notes were intended chiefly to keep the record straight, since they could hardly be expected to alter the policies of the Communist leaders now in control.
Soviets Bar Balkan Union.—Early this year Premier Georgi Dimitrov of Bulgaria, speaking perhaps without proper guidance, came forward with the familiar idea of a political and economic federation of the Balkan states, comprising not only the states separated from the old Turkish empire but also Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Poland. But the idea of such an “eastern bloc,” including some 80,000,000 people between Russia and Western Europe, was at once frowned upon by Pravda, official mouthpiece of Moscow. The Balkan states, it wrote, “do not need a problematical artificial federation,” but each should guard its “individual sovereignty.” The thought was evident that, separate and relatively feeble, these states would be far more dependent on Soviet protection and direction.
Developments in Greece.—In his mid- February report on aid to Greece and Turkey, President Truman admitted that most of the aid thus far expended in Greece had gone not for reconstruction but for aid in coping with guerrilla warfare and the care of refugees driven from their homes by civil strife. Greece, he stated, would receive continued economic assistance under the European Recovery Program, but would also need further military assistance.
Further to strengthen the anti-guerrilla campaign, General James A. Van Fleet, head of military groups in the U. S. Mission, and General S. B. Rawlins, chief of the British Mission, were added in mid-February as advisory members of the Greek National Defense council or inner cabinet. One object of this move was to prevent interference of politics with the conduct of military operations, since both the American and British missions had protested strongly against the removal in January of General Constantine Ventiris, head of the Northern Army and reputedly one of the ablest Greek leaders.
Force Needed in Palestine.—The United Nations Palestine Commission, in its second report to the Security Council in mid-February, declared that it could not proceed to carry out the United Nations plan for partition of Palestine unless it was provided with “military forces in adequate strength.” It stated that Arab leaders were responsible for “an attempt to alter by force” the partition plan, and that, on the other hand, failure to carry out the partition would constitute a severe blow to United Nations authority and prestige. In earlier consultations, the British had informed the commission that they were unwilling to relinquish authority prior to the termination of the mandate on May 15, and that they were unwilling to permit the coming of the commission to Palestine more than a fortnight earlier than that date, since it would tend to intensify strife. The British also were unwilling to change the 1500-a-month Jewish immigration quota prior to the surrender of the mandate, or to open a free port for such immigration at an earlier date. Britain would “consider” permitting a United Nations provision of arms for a Jewish militia, but did not believe that militia would furnish the force needed. Strong pressure was brought on the Security Council to provide the force required to back the partition, in the face of the Moslem League’s threat of organized resistance.
Upset in Yemen.—Despatches from Cairo on Feb. 18 reported a governmental upset in the little kingdom of Yemen, near the tip of the Arabian peninsula. Yahya Hamid El Din, the 85-year-old Imam or religious ruler, was reported killed, with three of his sixteen sons and a chief adviser. Ahmed el Nazir, head of another wealthy Yemen family, was announced as the new Imam, and another one of Hamid’s sons, who for the past year had led an opposition movement against his father, was made “premier of a constitutional government.” The Moslem League sent representatives from Cairo to investigate the situation and prevent non-Moslem interference.
Munitions for Iran.—In mid-February the Parliament of Iran voted, 79 to 6 with 10 abstaining, to accept from the United States a credit of $10,000,000 for the purchase of surplus war materials, including tanks and planes. The $10,000,000 is only part of a 25 million credit offered by the United States last June. There was some opposition to the purchase on the ground that it might antagonize Russia, and that even stronger Iranian defenses would be useless against foreign aggression. The supplies were to be used for Iran’s police force of 21,000 and Army of about 90,000.
FAR EAST
Solution for India Deferred.—The United Nations Security Council on Feb. 10 agreed to a month’s delay in its hearings on the Kashmir dispute, in order to give both the Union and the Pakistan delegates an opportunity to consult their home governments. Although it had already been decided that a three-nation “good offices” commission should be established to aid in settling the dispute, no agreement had been reached on the principles to guide the settlement. India objected to the evacuation of its forces from Kashmir, and also to the setting up of a neutral interim government prior to the proposed plebiscite under United Nations supervision. Forces of the Union on Feb. 6 won a victory over Moslem tribesmen at Naoshora in which the Moslem losses were reported as over 4,000 killed or wounded.
Following the assassination of Mohandas K. Gandhi, Jan. 30, by a member of a Hindu extremist organization, the India government on Feb. 2 issued an order banning all private armies and communal organizations advocating religious hatred and violence. The danger was increased, however, that, with the loss of Gandhi’s pacifist influence, trouble might develop between the Moderates led by Premier Jawaharlal Nehru and the more radical groups headed by Deputy Prime Minister Sardar Patel.
Aid for China.—President Truman on Feb. 18 asked Congress for an appropriation of $570,000,000 in aid for China, of which $510,000,000 was to be devoted to provision of consumer commodities and the rest to selected reconstruction projects. The aim was to give China “a respite from economic deterioration.” The message indicated an expectation for only limited results, and indicated also some dissatisfaction with the progress of reforms in the Nanking Government. In defense of the President’s policy of aid for the Nationalists, Dr. Paul Linebarger of the School of Advanced International Studies (Washington, D.C.) made the following points in an article in the Far Eastern Survey for Feb. 11: (1) That since American “policy could not conceivably support the Communists, it must work through the existing majority regime”; (2) that non-aid “would violate Mr. Truman’s anti-Communist principles by leaving a large area exposed to Communist penetration” ; and (3) that “if aid is extended so that each item of aid falls under expert supervision by small but highly qualified staffs, it will be effective.”
Korean Commission Stalled.—The Interim Commission or “Little Assembly” of the United Nations took up in late February the report of its Temporary Commission on Korea, a report which amounted to an admission of failure. The commission had not got past the barrier of the 38th parallel, where commission members had been prevented from even entry into the Soviet zone. The stay of the commission in South Korea had been further troubled by Communist-organized disturbances in which 27 natives were killed. The report suggested four possible courses: to proceed with elections in the South alone, to hold a limited election in the South for “consultative” representatives to aid in working out an all-national ballot, to make further efforts with both northern and southern leaders, or to abandon the whole project. United States influence was thrown strongly in favor of elections in Southern Korea, with the view that an Assembly elected by two-thirds of the total population might afford a starting point for a national government.
The matter was complicated by reports that the Russians were hastening the completion of a puppet government in North Korea, backed by an army of over 100,000. An obvious danger was that an advance of this army southward, if not prevented, might meet with only disorganized opposition and end with the conversion of Korea into another “peoples’ republic” under Soviet control.
New Japanese Premier.—After the resignation of the Katayama Government twelve days earlier, Hitoshi Ashida, head of the Democratic party, was approved by the Japanese Assembly on Feb. 21 to form a new coalition Government. The vote of 216 out of a total of 421 gave the new Premier only a narrow majority, and indicated that his government might be short-lived, with perhaps a general election in the spring. A career diplomat and politician, Ashida bolted the Liberals to form a new “Democratic” party after the war.
Indonesian Negotiations.—Following the Indonesian truce agreement reached in January, the United Nations Security Council took up in February the report of its Good Offices Commission, and the question whether this commission should continue its aid in the delicate negotiations which were to follow the truce. Such a course was strongly advocated by representatives of the Indonesian Republic, and also by Justice Kirby of Australia as a member of the Good Offices Commission. The Netherlands representatives, on the other hand, did not wish the powers of the Commission to be extended or expanded, and in this view they were supported by the Belgian member of the Good Offices group.