ITALY AND ETHIOPIA
Peace Moves Fail.—The difference between past and present methods of national aggrandizement seems to be chiefly that whereas in the past Italy’s designs in Africa, for example, would have been executed swiftly and unexpectedly, or after secret arrangements with other interested powers, today they are accompanied by a barrage of newspaper publicity, diplomatic parleys, and general concentration of world attention. Up to the close of August, however, there was little to show that this world concern in the affair would change its outcome. League and Franco-British efforts to check Italy met with quick failure. The League Council meeting on August 3 brought a stop-gap arrangement for resumption of committee negotiations with a fifth neutral committee member, and for a separate Anglo-Franco-Italian peace effort at Paris on August 16. The latter meeting, at which Premier Laval of France acted primarily as mediator between England and Italy, came quickly to grief. A request lor a clear statement of what Italy wanted brought a very definite indication that her demands stopped little short of complete political control—annexation of the lowlands and a protectorate over the highlands. The meeting then broke up. British diplomacy was greatly disturbed, and it seemed for a time that Britain might be ready to stand for sharp application of economic sanctions or even blockade. A subsequent Cabinet council, however, decided not to alter the present restrictions on munitions exports and to refrain from action until the special League Council session on September 4. Since this date was coincident with the regular session of the Council and Assembly, there might still be opportunity for dilatory moves, though war was very generally expected with the end of the rainy season in mid-September.
To emphasize the failure at Paris, the arbitration committee of four met a few days later and declined to name a fifth neutral member, but subsequently reconsidered its decision and elected Nicolas Politis of Greece, with the provision, however, that he was not to be called on till disagreement made it necessary.
European Repercussions.—Italy’s absorption of Ethiopia might be taken with some equanimity as, in Premier Mussolini’s terms, “the advance of civilization into a barbarous land,” were it not for its effect in upsetting the alignment of European powers. For England in particular, Italy’s designs are a portent of the rise of a new power in the Mediterranean and a. possible menace to her communications and interests in this region. As stated by one writer from London:
The main issue of Anglo-Italian tension is based on the question of predominance in the Mediterranean basin. Premier Mussolini frankly warned Mr. Eden that a crisis in the relation of the two countries was looming on the horizon. . ..
The Ethiopian enterprise is the logical outcome of years of steady training of the nation in the pursuit of unity through action. The Italians are conscious that their nation has now become the predominant power in the Mediterranean. Thus the moment approaches for a clash with Britain, whose Navy remains in these narrow seas as the guardian of the essential communications of the Empire.
It is difficult for two nations to share the Mediterranean hegemony. This is true because for years the British government has permitted its Navy to deteriorate, while submarine and air developments have furnished Italy with new elements of increased power.
The above is a good illustration of the close relationship of national policy and military or naval strategy. Indeed it was reported that the decision of the British Cabinet to delay action on sanctions was influenced by an Admiralty report on the difficulties of an operation in the Mediterranean at this time. Closing the Mediterranean would be relatively easy, compared with keeping it open as an avenue for British trade. In such a situation, French air and naval power would be an important factor; and though France, to her present regret, gave Italy something like a free hand in Africa, her lasting interest undoubtedly lies in preservation of the League as an international instrument and in preservation of the Franco-British entente.
For Germany the preoccupation of England, France, and Italy in colonial affairs results wholly to her advantage. The united “Stresa front” is now forgotten. The projected Danubian pact to preserve Austrian independence is in the wastebasket. Though it is dangerous to speculate on the swift changes of European policy, the weakening or isolation of Italy by a conflict outside Europe would inevitably play into the hands of the Nazis.
American Neutrality Measures.— The imminence of war in Africa hastened action on certain changes in American neutrality policy which have long been under consideration by the State Department and the House and Senate Committees on Foreign Affairs. According to the resolution passed by Congress on August 24, an embargo is to be declared on all shipments of arms to Italy or Ethiopia, either directly or through neutral ports, to continue until the end of next February- The President is further required to define i by proclamation “the arms, ammunition, or implements of war the export of which is prohibited by this act.” A national munitions committee is to be set up, and all manufacturers of arms are required to keep records of production and to secure licenses for all exports.
As finally passed, the neutrality ad modified considerably the original resolution as approved in the Senate, which made an arms embargo mandatory against any and all belligerent nations. This was opposed by the administration, which favored leaving the declaration of an embargo on either belligerent within the discretion of the government, thus increasing its possible influence in the direction of peace, and upon the general course of international affairs.
The present legislation is admittedly of a temperary character, and will be supplemented by measures to be presented at the next session of Congress. Consideration will presumably then be given to a provision forbidding loans to, or sale of securities for, any nation at war.
New Panama Treaty.—The American State Department in August announced agreement on the terms for a new basic treaty with Panama, together with certain , supplementary understandings. Under the new treaty, the United States withdraws its guarantee of Panamanian independence and its right to intervene in Panama City and Colon to preserve order—in other words the treaty abolishes what was for Panama the equivalent of the Platt Amendment in Cuba.
Provision is also made in the new agreement that the annual rental of $250,000 in gold for the canal shall hereafter be paid by the equivalent of the contractual stipulations in devalued dollars. This applies also to the sums due for the past two years, and the accrued interest.
EUROPEAN POLITICS
Strife Among Nazi Leaders.—The wide rift between the radical and more conservative elements among the Nazi leaders in Germany was evident in the treatment accorded the speech delivered at Königsberg on August 12 by Dr. Hjalmar Schacht, Minister of Economics and President of the Reichsbank. In this speech Herr Schacht, while condemning all opponents of Hitlerism, condemned also extra-legal terrorist action against these enemies as endangering the Reich in its present economic difficulties. “Our economy,” he declared, “is intertwined with that of other countries, and nobody, in fact, especially not I as the minister responsible for the German economic machinery, can be indifferent to the consequences that these disturbances create at home and abroad.”
A subsequent meeting of ministers upheld Dr. Schacht’s insistence on state control rather than “unregulated individual action.” Yet the critical portions of the speech were almost completely censored before it was allowed to reach the German public, and subsequent attacks on Jews and churchmen showed little regard for his warning.
FAR EAST
Political Murder in Japan.—The most recent of the frequent political assassinations in Japan was the killing on August 12 of Lieutenant General Nagata, Director of Military Affairs at Tokyo, by a disgruntled subordinate, Colonel Saburo Aizawa, who had been shifted from active service to a remote post in Formosa. The transfer of Aizawa was a minor move in the execution of War Minister Hayashi’s plan to weaken the influence of the more radical political agitators in the Army by removing them from posts of responsibility.
Japan Gains in Manila Trade.—In the Philippines, as in other parts of the Pacific area, Japanese trade has shown rapid gains. In March of last year, according to figures cited by J. B. Wood in an article in the New York Times, the share of the United States in Philippine trade was 83.2 per cent to 4.6 for Japan; in March of this year the figures were 71.8 and 9.8, showing the Japanese trade more than doubled. During the next ten years, as Mr. Wood sees it, the financial and commercial ties between the United States and the Philippines will be mostly broken, and replaced by links with Japan. The penetration will be commercial rather than military, but will create a situation such that “making the islands part of the growing empire on this Philippine side of the Pacific may be merely an official gesture.”
North Asia Communications.—As is well known, both Japan in Manchuria and the Soviet Republic in Siberia have in progress large-scale development of air and rail transportation facilities, the effect of which must be reckoned in the military as well as in the commercial and economic fields. Notable in Manchurian rail construction is the approaching completion of the direct rail line from Hsinking, the capital of Manchukuo, southeastward to the new Korean port of Rashin on the Sea of Japan. This line will provide an outlet, over 125 miles shorter than the South Manchurian Railway, from Harbin and the rich grainland of Northern Manchuria, and it will practically eliminate the Vladivostok route as a factor in the movement of Manchurian products. Incidentally it will shorten by a whole day the movement of troops from Japan to the Manchurian frontiers. The development of Rashin as a well-equipped and fully-fortified port is expected within the next ten years.
A detailed account of transportation progress in Siberia appears in the Far Eastern Survey for July 31. According to this article, the double-tracking of the Siberian Railway from Lake Baikal to the Manchurian border will be completed this year, and the remaining section to Vladivostok in 1937. Another large rail project to be completed in ten years is a line running northeast from Baikal to the Lena River basin and thence eastward to the Okhotsk Sea. This will give an alternative and safer line of military communications and open up regions rich in mineral and timber resources. Another railway is to be built south from Ulan Ude, east of Lake Baikal, to the Mongolian border and thence to Urga, the Mongolian capital. Needless to say, the development of motor roads and air lines are also important elements in Siberian transportation plans, as well as the use of river and sea communications, such as the Arctic sea route to Archangel. The second Five Year Plan (1932-37) when completed will add 4,796 kilometers of railway of which over 4,000 kilometers will be double- tracked and 2,365 electrified.
The Chinese Anti-Red Campaign.— Little definite information has reached the outside world regarding General Chiang Kai-shek’s campaign against the so-called Communist rebels in China, though the last or sixth drive against them has evidently had somewhat greater success than its predecessors since the re-emergence of the movement in South China in 1928. According to General Chiang, as cited in the Far Eastern Survey of August 14, bis weapons in the recent campaign have been 70 per cent political and economic, and only 30 per cent military. The former include the formation of a fascist organization of Blue Shirts, the political education of government forces, economic and social reforms to reduce the evils which have given strength to the rebellion, and the “New Life” movement designed to arouse a patriotic pride in China’s cultural heritage. In the military field, the success of the recent campaign may be attributed to a slow, consolidated advance along the entire front, rather than rapid thrusts into Red territory. This advance has not destroyed the rebel forces, but has driven them out of Kiangsi and Hunan provinces into the western regions of Szechwan, and it has extended the political and military influence of Nanking through territories in the southwest which formerly gave the established government only nominal allegiance. Political control of these regions, if in any measure accomplished, must he regarded as a more practical accomplishment than the destruction or capture of Red armies.