GERMAN REARMAMENT
The Hitler Program.—To most observers the rearmament of Germany does not mean that Germany wants war, certainly not in the immediate future; nor does it mean that war is threatening, unless indeed the nations opposed to Germany should decide to strike before she grows too strong. It means rather that Germany has had borne in upon her the imperative need of force to support policy. In Europe, as in the rest of the world, a nation’s interests have little chance of being respected unless her diplomacy is sanctioned by potential strength.
This was the chief significance attached to Reichsführer Hitler’s statement of German foreign and military policy presented in a 2-hour speech to the Reichstag assembled for the purpose on May 21. The general feeling abroad was that the statement clarified Germany’s position, and, though bellicose in tone, left definite openings for agreement with other powers. Herr Hitler himself summarized the policies under thirteen heads, which with some reduction of words may be given as follows:
(1) Germany’s disregard of the arms provisions of the Versailles Treaty was justified by the disregard shown by other nations, and she will not return to the League until full equality of rights has been established.
(2) While disregarding the arms provisions, Germany will observe all other requirements of the Versailles Treaty, including territorial clauses,
and for revisions made necessary by the course of time will resort only to peaceful means.
(3) Germany will observe all other treaties, including those made by previous governments. She will stand by the Locarno pact as long as the other signatories do, and will even preserve the demilitarized zone in the West as “contributing to the pacification of Europe,” though the massing of troops beyond the zone cannot be looked upon as assisting to this end.
(4) Germany will participate in collective cooperation for peace, though the law of evolution requires an opening for revision of treaties.
(5) European co-operation cannot be achieved by conditions “one-sidedly imposed.”
(6) Germany will conclude non-aggression pacts (except with Lithuania), and supplement them by provisions for isolating belligerents.
(7) Germany is ready to supplement the Locarno pact by an air convention, and to enter at once into its discussion.
(8) While not yielding to any restriction of her announced army plan, Germany will accept all arms limitations that other states likewise accept. She will accept air limitations at any figure giving her parity with other Western nations, and has already limited her navy to 35 per cent of the naval strength of Britain and 85 per cent of that of France.
(9) Germany suggests gradual abolition of fighting methods contrary to the old Geneva Red Cross convention, such as gas warfare and incendiary bombing.
(10) Germany will agree to any limitation of primarily aggressive weapons, e.g., heavy artillery and tanks.
(11) Germany will also agree to any common limitation of naval tonnage and weapons, and will even consent to the abolition of submarines.
(12) Germany suggests measures against propaganda—the “poisoning” of public opinion through radio, newspapers, and moving pictures.
(13) Germany will join an international agreement to prevent interference in other states (such as Austria), but insists that the term “interference” be precisely defined.
The New German Army.—According to the terms of the new German conscription law announced in May, all able-bodied male Germans, except Jews, criminals, and candidates for the Catholic priesthood who have already reached the grade of subdeacon, will be called up normally at the age of 20 for a full year of active service. This will be preceded also by required duty in the labor battalions. After the soldier’s year of active service, he will continue in the first reserve until he is 35, and in the second reserve or Landwehr until his forty-sixth year. The naval and air forces will become corps d’elite, manned entirely by 4-year volunteers. The name of the army is changed from Reichswehr (defense of the realm) to Wehrmacht (defense force); the defense minister becomes the “war minister”; and it is made clear to every soldier that his allegiance is first of all to the Army and not to any political party, even the Nazis.
Memel Punishments Reduced.—President Smetona of Lithuania on May 18, reduced to life imprisonment the death penalties imposed on four Nazi leaders found guilty of plotting for the return of Memel to Germany. The Lithuanian Supreme Court had previously upheld the death penalties, but had reduced the sentences of other prisoners from eight to six years. This action immediately preceded Herr Hitler’s statement in his Reichstag speech that Germany would make no treaty whatever with a state (Lithuania) which in its treatment of Germans disregarded “the most primitive right of humanity.”
Anglo-German Naval Talks.—Though English political leaders saw “some light” in Führer Hitler’s talk on armaments, their first response was to secure a vote in the House of Commons on May 22 approving the new plan for increased aircraft construction. This if carried out will bring England’s present strength of 580 first line planes up to 1,500 in March, 1937. At the same time the British ambassador at Berlin set at work to obtain further explanation of certain passages in the Chancellor’s address, and to prepare the ground for naval and other armament conversations between England and Germany set to open in London on June 5. Of especial interest to England was the Chancellor’s statement that Germany stood ready to abolish submarines.
While insisting on air parity with Germany, and pointing out that the air menace was more immediate than that of navies or armies because of the speed with which it could be brought to bear, Mr. Stanley Baldwin in an address on May 28 emphasized particularly the idea, already accepted in principle by Germany, of “a special air pact inside the Locarno treaty,” including a clause of limitations. Between England and Germany such an agreement could no doubt readily be reached, but France, whose chief concern is the size of the German Army, will not be so ready to enter into a pact affecting only one item in her security requirements.
EUROPEAN POLITICS
Death of Marshal Pilsudski.—The death of Marshal Joseph Pilsudski, chief figure in the Polish government for most of the period since the World War, occurred on May 12. He was 67 years of age and had been for some time ill from cancer of the stomach. His funeral services, attended by Foreign Minister Laval of France, Air Minister Goering of Germany, and many other prominent figures, were held at Warsaw five days later. Devoted throughout his life to the cause of Polish independence, Marshal Pilsudski was the chief instrument in the creation of a strong, free Poland out of the post-war settlement, and except for a brief interval in 1923-26 was thereafter the controlling factor in Polish politics. Hostility toward Russia was a dominant motive in his conduct of foreign policy, and to his influence was largely attributed the present 10-year peace agreement with Germany. Since this feeling is shared by Foreign Minister Joseph Beck and the coterie of Pilsudski followers who have succeeded to control in Poland, the death of the dictator is not likely to bring any immediate shift in the Polish outlook on foreign affairs.
Laval in Moscow.—The visit of French Foreign Minister Laval to Warsaw and afterward to Moscow in the second week of May had the effect chiefly of bringing Franco-Russian relations into closer solidarity. His reception at Warsaw was friendly but cool, and offered no prospect of inducing Poland to join an eastern regional pact or depart from her non-committal attitude toward her strong neighbors to the east and west. At the conclusion of the Moscow visit, a joint statement was issued declaring that France and Russia were still favorable to an Eastern pact of non-aggression and consultation, even without the mutual aid provisions to which Germany is opposed. This was regarded as another invitation to Germany to enter into an agreement on terms which she has already approved. The possibilities of such an agreement doubtless constituted the chief theme of discussion during a 2-hour conference between M. Laval and Herr Goering which occurred on May 18, when they met at the Pilsudski funeral.
As for the smaller states of Northern Europe, their attitude toward the proposed regional pact is in general cautious but favorable. At the second annual conference of the Baltic states on May 6-8, attended by representatives of Latvia, Lithuania, and Esthonia, the three states declared their readiness “actively to support regional guarantees of security in Eastern Europe.”
Danube Conference Postponed.— Diplomats of central Europe were occupied during May with preliminary conversations in an effort to prepare the way for the projected conference to stablize the position of Austria and the general situation in the Balkans, but at the close of the month the progress was so slight as to force a postponement of the conference to a later date than the first week of June. Premier Mussolini’s policy is to avoid calling the conference until there is an assurance of positive results.
In the 5th Balkan Entente conference held on May 10-12 the chief topic of discussion, in matters of foreign policy, was the prospective rearmament of Bulgaria and Hungary. While recognizing the difficulty of preventing this rearmament, the conference expressed the hope that the two states might accompany it by joining with the other Balkan nations in a pact of non-aggression. For Hungary, however, this would amount to a renunciation of her demands for lost territory. Bulgaria also, under the re-established control of King Boris and the new Tocheff cabinet, is apparently tending toward a renewal of cordial relations with Germany and a cooler attitude toward the neighboring states who profited by her loss of territory after the war.
New French Ministry.—Following the fall of the Flandin cabinet in France, late in May, on the issue of the premier’s demand for full powers to deal with the financial crisis, a new ministry was organized under Fernand Bouisson, former president of the Chamber. M. Bouisson’s announced plan was to dismiss Parliament until November after securing from it the same powers demanded by his predecessor, on the assumption, apparently, that as compared with Flandin be would be more readily trusted to use these powers with discretion M. Bouisson, however, was defeated after only 5 days in office, and as finally organized the new government was headed by M. Laval.
Italy to Arbitrate.—A last minute yielding on the part of Italy gave a measure of success to the desperate efforts of the League Council, led by France and England, to keep the Italo-Ethiopian dispute within the field of peaceful arbitration. Just prior to the agreement reached in the Council on May 24, Emperor Haile Selassie had dispatched an urgent protest to the Council under Art. XV of the League Covenant, demanding that the League take measures for the cessation of Italian troop movements and the evacuation of Abyssinian territory, while on the very day of the agreement Premier Mussolini had ordered further troop mobilization and had declared before the Chamber of Deputies that the precautionary measures, justified by Abyssinia’s recent armament moves, would be followed by others if need be, the Italian government standing ready “to assume even the supreme responsibilities.” Italy’s consent to arbitration was secured chiefly by England’s diplomatic man-of-all-work, Mr. Anthony Eden, ably supported by French Foreign Minister Laval.
According to the terms of the agreement, direct negotiations between Italy and Ethiopia will continue until July 25. If no settlement is reached by that date, a fifth neutral arbitrator is to be appointed within a month’s time. And if by August 26 no results are attained, the Council will meet in special session to consider further action. Ethiopia appointed as her representatives in the negotiations Professor Pitman B. Potter, an American specialist in the field of international law, and Professor Albert de la Prabelle of the University of Paris. No stipulations were made as to whether the scope of arbitration should include only the Ualual and similar incidents or the 1 whole frontier controversy. Moreover, no restrictions were placed on the movement of Italian troops and munitions, since this movement could be viewed as taking place wholly within Italian territory. In reality, Italy’s consent to arbitration would not interfere to any great extent with whatever military moves she might have in contemplation, for these could hardly begin in any case before the end of the African rainy season in September.
The militant spirit has been highly aroused in Italy, and it remains to be seen whether the Fascist state will now be content merely with economic concessions. To England and France also, further Italian penetration of Abyssinia would doubtless be preferred to the threatened economic exploitation of the country by Japan.
UNITED STATES AND LATIN AMERICA
Italy and Dominica.—Recent difficulties between Italy and the Dominican Republic, though trivial in origin, promised at first to throw some light on the question whether the Monroe Doctrine is “dead,” as certain Latin American commentators would have us believe, or is still in active operation. More specifically, is if the policy of the present United States administration to remain strictly passive in difficulties between non-American nations and the states of the Western Hemisphere? In the Dominican affair, Italy threatened to send a warship unless the Dominican government immediately released a former Italian consul, Armadeo Barletta, who had been held prisoner on charges of conspiracy against the life of President Rafael Trujillo. Barletta’s real offense, apparently, had been certain business schemes that interfered with the President’s tobacco monopoly. After some pressure from Washington, evidenced by a hasty trip from the United States made by the Dominican Minister, the Italian former consul was on May 21 granted unconditional release.
Chaco Peace Moves.—The League Council at its May session postponed action on the Chaco war until its September session, in the hope that during the intervening period success might attend the renewed peace moves undertaken by the neutral American powers, Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Peru, and the United States. A meeting of the representatives of these nations, together with those of the two belligerents, was planned at Buenos Aires in July, upon the arrival of the American representative, Mr. Hugh Giber son, who left New York on May 24. In anticipation of the peace conference, Bolivia undertook a vigorous offensive during May, and by the close of the month had forced the evacuation of practically all Bolivian Territory previously held by the enemy. Santa Fé, about 100 miles north of Villa Montes and the last Paraguayan position on the Parapiti River, was recaptured on May 16.
Cuban Elections.—It was officially announced in Havana at the close of April that general elections for a constituent assembly would be held on November 1, a date two months later than had previously been planned. The election agreement was s approved by the National party, to which President Mendieta belongs, and also by three other of the older parties, the National Democrats, Republicans, and Liberals.
FAR EAST
Ambassadors For China.—On May 15 the Japanese, British, and American Foreign Offices announced their decisions to raise the rank of their diplomatic representatives in China from minister to ambassador. Russia and Italy had already made this change several years ago, and France and Germany took similar action on the next day. In the dispatches from Nanking, much was made of the credit due to Foreign Minister Hirota of Japan for taking the lead in this change.
New Japanese Demands.—The elevation of the Japanese ministry at Nanking to an embassy is likely to make little difference in Japan’s China policy, which is largely in the hands of the Japanese army leaders. This was evidenced by reports at the close of May of a long list of demands made by Japanese army heads regarding the conduct of affairs in North China, including the removal of General Yu, Governor of Hopeh province and commander of Chinese military forces in the Tientsin area, and the dismissal of most of the other officials in North China who were formerly adherents of Marshal Chang Hsiao-liang. The chief pretext for these demands was the incursion of “bandit” forces into the demilitarized zone and the recent assassination of two pro- Japanese editors of Chinese newspapers in Tientsin.
Foreign residents of North China have expressed the belief that Japan in her present demands is acting under secret clauses of the Tangku truce terms, and that Hopeh province will soon be added to the demilitarized zone and brought more fully within the sphere of Japanese influence.