During the last five years, aircraft have become an integral part of national life. Military men have seen them develop from novel contraptions of doubtful effectiveness into most important weapons. The commercial development has been even more striking, but it has taken place so quietly that it has passed almost unnoticed. Five years ago, the most optimistic aeronautic enthusiasts did not visualize what is today an accomplished fact. It was doubtful even two years ago if people would fly. The doubt has been dispelled completely, and a new vista has opened up. Air transport is today established on a sound, economic basis. This is of importance not only to our economic life, but, as will be developed in this paper, it has an important bearing on our security.
There are three general fields for air transport: mail, express, and passengers. Of these, mail was exploited first, and it has been assisted in this country by the government with a clear understanding of its value to our economic life and our national defense. The volume of air mail has grown and the rates have been reduced steadily until now the air mail deficit is small, particularly in comparison with the post-office deficit resulting from certain other services, like rural free delivery. It is an interesting fact that over certain routes where conditions are favorable, air mail is almost self-supporting. The time will soon come when the revenue accruing to the government for air mail carried over these lines will cover the amount paid the lines for transporting the mail. Air mail will then be self-sustaining.
This situation suggests that the time may arrive when air mail will not be a premium service. The title "first-class mail" should mean letters carried by the most rapid means of transport. When first- class mail moves by air, rail, water, or motor transport, whichever serves to expedite its delivery, the increased volume to the air lines will result in a reduction in costs such that air mail will compete with other forms of transport. We may say, then, that the first of the three fields of air transport (air mail) can stand on its own merit.
In the field of air express there has been a rapid expansion of service. The great need was for the proper facilities, and, as these have been made available, they have been utilized extensively. Air express is carrying checks and securities for banks, saving them large amounts each year in interest charges. Quantities of valuables are being carried. On one occasion, a piece of machinery was flown from Massachusetts to San Francisco for a large steamer which had broken its crank shaft. The time saved on this item meant a large saving to the steamship company. Air express fulfills an important function, resulting in savings of large sums which more than justify its economic existence.
It is in the passenger transport field that the outstanding developments have taken place. In spite of the fact that early airplanes were comparatively slow and uncomfortable, the traffic has increased steadily. This year has marked the advent of entirely new types of aircraft, designed primarily to meet the requirements of airline operators. Speed and comfort have increased and noise has diminished. The response to these improvements is already apparent. On certain lines, passenger traffic, at rates equal to premium railway traffic, is becoming self-supporting.
With mail and passenger traffic standing on their own merit, and air express expanding, we may say that air transport has become an important part of our economic life. All this has been accomplished in a period of widespread depression. With a return to normal conditions, we should find further expansion and development. Even in this country, where competing forms of transport are highly developed, air transport has come into its own. This is largely due to the fact that it is a fundamentally sound development from the point of view of cost.
We realize this more fully when we stop to compare it with other forms of transport. Construction and maintenance of rights of way are elements of tremendous cost in ordinary forms of transportation. The amount of money invested in railway tracks and motor highways is enormous. Air transport is not burdened by this expense. Its right of way is the free air overhead. The cost of lighted airways, radio installations, and weather bureau service, which has properly been borne by the government, is a mere drop in the bucket compared to the cost of similar aids to navigation for the Merchant Marine. Had the government constructed and maintained all of the airports in the United States, the cost would have been small compared with the cost of breakwaters, dredged channels, and the vast construction that goes to aid maritime commerce. In addition, the cost of the aircraft themselves and their maintenance is small in proportion to their cargo capacity measured in pounds per mile per hour. Air transport is rational transport from the economic point of view.
If this is the case in a country like ours, which has already a large investment in rights of way and their maintenance, how much more so is it true in undeveloped countries. We may quote, as an example, the fact that in the Canadian woods air transport of freight is so much more economical than transport by Indians in canoes that it has found widespread application. One of the most interesting examples of endeavor in a new field is that of the gold mines in New Guinea. Two airplanes carried two dredges, in sections, into an impenetrable jungle, and are now the means of communication with the outside world. This has been made a profitable endeavor through the use of aircraft, whereas the construction of roads or railways would have made it far less attractive.
Aside from the purely economic aspect which assures the advance of aeronautics, there is a broader viewpoint. The history of the development of our modern civilization is largely the story of improvement in means of communication. It is impossible for us at this time to estimate the influence on history of such rapid means of as air transport affords. It has already compressed the distance between our eastern and western coasts until New York and San Francisco are now no farther apart than were New York and Chicago a few years ago. This fact cannot fail to have a profound influence on the development of the country, and on the history of the world. As intercourse between people and nations become more personal, better understanding inevitably results.
Countries without well-developed transport systems are alive to the possibilities of air transport. Russia, with its far-flung territories, is making strides along these lines. It seems unlikely that tremendous sums of money will be invested in railways and highways in a country where the long haul can be handled so economically by air. I do not mean that air transport will replace other forms. It does seem quite clear, however, that rail, motor, and air transport will develop as complementary systems, each effective in its own field. Air transport seems best adapted to the long haul.
This development is of enormous importance from the point of view of security for the reason that modern air transports can be converted into powerful second line lumbers. As a matter of fact, some of our most successful air transports today are developments of earlier bomber designs. Of course, it is likewise true that merchant steamers may be converted into instruments of war. There is, however, a distinct difference, which is really a fundamental characteristic of air operations. Whereas armies and navies are confined to two dimensions, aircraft have freedom of movement in three. Armies fight armies, and navies fight navies, but an air force is capable of offensive action against armies, navies, air forces, munitions factories, depots, docks, railway terminals, far into the heart of a nation. Aircraft definitely modify strategic considerations. We may even say that the development of aircraft has changed the whole philosophy of war.
To the layman, war usually involves a conflict between armies and navies which are more or less in the category of paid gladiators deposited along the frontiers, striving to prevent the opposing army from overrunning the country. In the past, the depth of the fighting zone, determined by the range of guns, has been relatively shallow. Even from this narrow point of view of war, the influence of aircraft became apparent near the close of the last war. The depth of the war zone now becomes the range of aircraft, and enormous strides have been made, particularly in the past few years in the increase in speed, range, and carrying capacity of bombers.
The military man remembers always that the ends of modern warfare are to bring about a disintegration of the civil population's will to fight. The defeat of an army or a navy is merely the indirect means to that end. Time was when an invading army could live off the country, and fight independently of the civil population. No modern army can continue to fight without the subsistence and munitions supplied by the civil elements. Once the will to supply this assistance is broken, the armies or navies are defeated just as surely as if they had been defeated in combat. The close of the last war illustrated this, and one striking example occurred when the whole German High Seas Fleet surrendered to the British Grand Fleet without the firing of a shot.
This being the case, it follows that in the future, offensive operations will be directed immediately against the civil areas. The air raids on London and Paris in the World War were the beginning of such a procedure. The means of this offensive are the bombing planes. In the last war, armies concerned themselves largely with mastery of the air in their immediate vicinity. “Knights of the air” sought control through individual combat over the fronts. This could, at best, give only local mastery, which in turn shifted rapidly from side to side. In the next war, mastery of the air will call for immediate offensive operations to destroy all enemy aeronautical equipment by striking at ground establishments, such as aircraft factories, depots, hangars, airdromes, and aircraft carriers. In the future, an effort will be made to “scotch the hornets in their nests,” rather than strike them down after they are in the air. This, in turn, will scatter air forces away from every permanent military airdrome. Aircraft will occupy any field of suitable size and will resort to every means of concealment. All permanent air stations are certain to be destroyed promptly by enemy bombers.
There appears to be no really satisfactory defense against enemy air attack. Defense by guns is limited. Defense by airplanes is handicapped by the fact that enemy freedom of movement is such as to give them the advantage of surprise. An air attack can cross the border at so many different places, and at so many different altitudes, that it is practically impossible to maintain a defensive force sufficient to stop the approach. The entire boundary of a homeland would have to be defended by a dense cordon of aircraft. Even then, the margin of performance between pursuit and bombardment is so small as to make it extremely difficult to stop a determined attack once started. Though defending pursuits are present in numbers and happen to intercept the approaching bombardment, they will find extreme difficulty in stopping such an attack, because the bombardment formation now carries sufficient density of gunfire to make it extremely unhealthy for pursuit. No doubt there will be some losses on both sides, but a determined attack by a compact formation of bombers can get through to its objective even when attacked by a determined force of pursuit. Meanwhile, where darkness, clouds, speed, and mobility make it possible to avoid interception, the attack may go through unmolested.
An experienced air tactical commander will appreciate how often this may happen. Perhaps the best illustrations of this possibility in our own experience are the fleet problems of recent years. Our large carriers with high sustained speed frequently evaded the defending surface vessels and launched aircraft without opposition. The aircraft themselves, even when concentrated on narrow objectives, frequently got through without being molested and even returned to the carrier without having seen enemy aircraft. Any experienced squadron leader knows that it is difficult to keep a prearranged air rendezvous, to say nothing of intercepting an enemy.
In view of the difficulties imposed upon pursuit in stopping a bombardment attack, an aggressive commander will look to his bombardment to destroy enemy will to fight. He will concentrate on two types— bombardment and very fast single seater reconnaissance. The reconnaissance aircraft will be in relatively small numbers, and their task will be to furnish information and security to their own bombardment. In view of the difficulties and cost of air defense, the commander will submit to enemy attacks and concentrate on air offense in order to insure the greatest possible damage to enemy resources. Offensive operations will be conducted without seeking combat with enemy aircraft. The primary objective will be to bomb military areas. The offensive bombardment therefore, avoid contact, and if attacked, will defend itself without maneuvering, but by using gunfire. It will drive on to its objective in enemy territory. The principle of the offensive is paramount with aircraft.
The foregoing discussion refers to an air force as differentiated from the air service, that is, aircraft necessary to an army or navy as tactical units. In tactical organizations in recent fleet problems, the naval air force has often been chosen as "the striking force." I do not mean to infer that the air force replaces the Army or the Navy, or any element thereof. Fundamental weapons do not pass, though the method of using them changes. It is obvious that the air force constitutes one of the most powerful weapons in breaking the enemy civilian morale. In the World War, and every other war where sea power has been an influence, history shows that command of the sea has brought victory primarily in breaking the enemy morale through siege and destruction of trade. Command of the sea will still continue to be an important factor. None the less, strategically, effective bombardment aircraft offer a means of striking directly at the sources of supply of food and munitions. Ultimately, these may go underground. Ultimately, the whole population may go underground, but in the opening phases of the next war, that country which uses its air force vigorously from the beginning may destroy the enemy will to fight in a few days.
It may now be well to consider what influence this new method of attack exerts. In this country, we do not feel its threat so much, because we are isolated from countries to the east and west by two large oceans and on the south and north we are bordered by countries with which we are fundamentally in accord. It is when we look at the continent of Europe that we begin to see the possibilities. There, entire countries are within range of aircraft based just over their borders. Farseeing military men are pointing out the factors herein previously outlined. They are advocating air forces consisting of large bombing planes capable of transporting heavy weights of explosives long distances and provided with ample armament to defend themselves. They are advocating the continued maintenance of air forces at war strength at all times ready for immediate action upon commencement of hostilities. They point out that a large percent of an air force's effectiveness for victory is lost if there is any delay for mobilization. They are advocating quick, decisive action at the very beginning of hostilities. They point out the fact that where early efforts will be concentrated upon military objectives, sooner or later the entire population will be a target. The possibilities of this are largely responsible for the degree of nervousness that exists among countries which see their neighbors ready for such an attack. The motives for war are present as a result of numerous factors—economic, nationalistic, and what-not. With national bitternesses present and the weapons at hand, trouble is always possible.
The possibilities in the air have brought home to civil leaders the great hazards of war, which in the past have largely been concentrated in the armies and the navies. This has led to efforts looking toward disarmament or limitation. Limitation of armament may take two forms. The one results from political expediency in which the number of variables, for limits of discussion, are kept at a minimum on the presumption that strained relations and war between nations in the future can and will be avoided by means other than armed conflict. The second form is that in which an attempt is made to evaluate material effectiveness in concrete terms with the idea of actually safeguarding the national defense should war come. We are concerned here only with the second type. Even disregarding commercial aircraft, the number of variables we have to consider in this form of limitation is large. Agreement is difficult, if not impossible. This is only natural because national interests are so diverse and the fundamental requirements are so different that even honest, conscientious efforts cannot reconcile them. The mathematics of the limitation problem then become so involved as to approach the famous “square root of minus one.” It seems clear that a form of limitation which insures justice to all concerned cannot be arrived at. The only alternative is the maintenance of adequate national defense.
When we bring the matter of air transport into the problem, it becomes entirely hopeless of solution. Any discussion of limitation of armaments must give full consideration to the possibilities of commercial aircraft. One proposal looks to the internationalization of transport lines, with supervision and inspection by an international committee to assure that commercial, rather than military, aircraft are being built. In view of the ease with which commercial aircraft can be converted into military ones, such control is impractical. Nations will be suspicious of attempts to retard their air transport development under the guise of military supervision. They have real cause to fear interference with the number of airplanes required commercially, and the types of airplanes to be used. Such international control, even if it were practicable, would definitely result in a retardation of commercial aircraft development.
In this country, where we have highly developed means of transportation, we might again temporarily do without air transport. In countries like Russia, however, where the cost of building railways and roads is prohibitive, air transport is a vital necessity to progress. It is a solution to transport problems involving great distances. This fact is well understood in Russia and every effort is being made to develop air transport there. Not only that, but there is, in Russia, a realization of the possibilities of bombardment aircraft. This is indicated by the recent publication of a photograph in which can be counted over 150 4-engined Russian bombers. It is a matter of common knowledge that more of these are being built at a rapid rate. If one country cannot and will not give up air transport, and air transports can be converted into an instrumentality of war, what possibility is there of any near-by country agreeing to the abolition of aircraft?
In the future, as in the past, our military establishment will have to take the form of a fully-trained organization of minimum size consistent with national security, and this organization should be ready to strike at an instant’s notice. Strategic considerations in this country make the Navy the striking force. The advent of aircraft has modified the manner in which the Navy will function in the future. The Navy will use aircraft to strike directly at any possible enemy through the air, and will use airplanes based on surface craft and lighter- than-air craft. By the same token, we must be prepared to defend ourselves against a similar attack from overseas. Our great size and the dispersion of our population give us a stronger position than that of a possible enemy whose entire population may be concentrated within narrow limits. This does not relieve us, however, of the national duty of protecting cities which may be subject to a raid. The speed and mobility of aircraft and aircraft carriers are strong attributes to surprise attack.
All this means that the American air force, the nation's" striking force," should be a naval air force capable of going to sea with the fleet. To the superior mobility of the aircraft is added mobility of their bases. With this branch ready for instant action, any over-seas nation would think twice before taking issue with us.
This force of ours is not intended as a means of aggression; it is intended to enable us to carry out our national policies. Our destinies will be determined in the future as they have been in the past—by our strength, whether it be military or economic. The greatest single force for peace today is the maintenance of a force sufficiently strong in the hands of those who have in the past contributed most to the welfare of the world, and have proved their right to control it in the future. Even in the smallest communities, citizens anxious for the maintenance of law and order combine to maintain police forces strong enough to keep the malefactors in line. The same principles apply to the larger communities represented by nations.
To summarize, the security of the world and continued progress of civilization depend upon the maintenance by law-abiding nations of sufficient force to keep the peace. Aircraft have profoundly modified the strategy of war since they are a means of striking directly at the sources of supply of the sinews of war. Commercial transport aircraft, which can be converted readily into military craft, have now assumed a place of economic and cultural importance in national life. They are, therefore of fundamental importance to security and civilization. Turning points in the history of mankind have been marked by the advent of new and powerful things. We should now recognize aircraft as objects which will have profound influence on our destinies and we should spare no effort in developing them.