From November 4 to December 3
LONDON NAVAL CONFERENCE
American DELEGATES.—The American delegates to the London Naval Conference scheduled to open on January 21 were announced on November 20 as follows: Secretary of State Henry L. Stimson, Secretary of the Navy Charles Francis Adams, Senators Joseph T. Robinson of Arkansas and David A. Reed of Pennsylvania, and Ambassadors Charles G. Dawes, Hugh Gibson, and Dwight L. Morrow. The expansion of the delegation to seven members by the inclusion of Secretary of the Navy Adams and Ambassador Morrow was unexpected, and was taken as a recognition of the argument that the naval point of view should be more adequately represented. Admiral Hilary P. Jones and Admiral William V. Pratt will accompany the delegation as technical advisers.
Aims of France and Japan.—Discussion in the months immediately preceding the London Naval Conference concerned itself chiefly with the positions that would be taken by Japan, France, and Italy. Japan named a delegation fully versed in naval affairs, and made it clear from the beginning that she would expect a 7-10 instead of 6-10 ratio for the cruiser class as a whole, and would decline any reduction in submarine tonnage. The instructions to the delegation, which is headed by ex-Premier Wakatsuki, suggested reduction of battleship tonnage to 25,000 tons, aircraft carrier tonnage to 15,000 or 20,000 tons, gun calibers to 14-inch, and extension of age limits for all types. The Japanese delegation planned to reach Washington on December 17 for conferences before going to London.
The French policy, as well known, insists on retention of the submarine, and opposes a ratio as low as 1.75-5 for cruisers and other smaller categories, in view of the two coast lines of France and her extensive colonial interests. She would have no objection to the abolition of the battleship. In general the French position is opposed to parity and ratios, on the ground that a nation’s navy should be determined by her individual needs, and that construction beyond these needs would be an open manifestation of aggressive policies. She objects also to Britain’s maintaining a cruiser force in the Mediterranean equal to that of France and Italy combined. In fact the success of the conference will depend in no small measure on solution of the naval problem in the Mediterranean. (See more detailed account of problems before the Naval Conference in “Professional Notes.’’)
Immunity of Food Ships.—Speaking before the American Legion on Armistice Day in Washington, President Hoover “put forward an idea” which, though avowedly not presented as a “governmental proposition,” aroused much comment at home and abroad. This was that “food ships should be made free of interference in time of war,” on the ground that “protection of overseas or imported supplies has been one of the most impelling causes of increasing naval armaments,” and that “we should remove starvation of women and children from the weapons of warfare.”
This proposal was generally condemned in the French press as conflicting with the League idea of economic blockade, and as encouraging aggressive warfare rather than the opposite. Feeding the civilian population, it was believed, could not be separated from feeding the armies in the field.
In reply to an interpolation in Parliament, Mr. MacDonald gave assurances that neither immunity of food ships nor other phases of commerce control in wartime would be discussed at the London Conference. Incidentally, assurance was also given that there would be no discussion of abandoning British naval bases in the West Indies and Western Atlantic.
FAR EAST
Soviet Success in Manchuria.—With the close of November came a complete breakdown of Chinese resistance to Soviet forces in Northern Manchuria. After contenting itself with raids and forays through the summer and early fall, Moscow apparently decided that the approach of winter and the civil war in central China made it an opportune time to back diplomacy by force. Four divisions were moved, two from the east and two from the west, into Manchuria along the line of the Chinese Eastern Railway. The western force captured Hailar, inflicting about 12,000 Chinese casualties according to reports, and took control of all territory west of the Kinghan Mountains. The eastern force advanced and even threatened the capture of Harbin. By November 26 Chinese resistance was at an end and the Manchurian Government made definite peace promises which included: (1) restoration of the status quo on the railway in accordance with the agreement of 1924; (2) reinstatement of Soviet officials; (3) release of arrested Soviet citizens. Though many hitches were expected in the execution of this program, and some of these developed at once, it appeared clear that the Soviet Government would have little further difficulty in securing its aims.
Appeals to League and Kellogg Pact. —On November 26, while the Manchurian leaders were coming to terms with Moscow, the Chinese Government at Nanking addressed an appeal both to the League of Nations and to the signatories of the Kellogg Peace Treaty to take steps to halt the Soviet invasion of Chinese territory. Action on the part of the League was rendered difficult by the fact that Russia was not a member. Both China and the Soviet Republic, however, are signatories of the Anti-War Pact. Through its ambassadors in London, Paris, Rome, Berlin, and Tokio the United States Government made an endeavor to consult as to what action should be taken, and Secretary Lansing finally sent to both nations a reminder of their obligations under the Kellogg Pact.
There were some ironic comments in the press on the fact that war had actually been going on in Manchuria for the preceding three months or more, and the only efforts to stop it by peace machinery were made after the war was over. The absence of sanctions for the Kellogg treaty was also the subject of adverse comment. In a dispatch of November 27 from London to the New York Times, Edwin L. James remarked that “almost at the some hour that former Secretary of State Kellogg was explaining to a peace meeting held in one of the halls of the House of Commons this afternoon that the Anti-War Pact was the cornerstone on which the continuing of the peace of the world could be built, Foreign Secretary Henderson was explaining that ....the Kellogg Pact provided no machinery for dealing with infractions of it.”
Truce in Chinese Civil War.-—Coincident with the Soviet success in Manchuria came a sudden halt to the revolt in Central China. That this was in any way a manifestation of national solidarity was quite generally doubted, and in Shanghai there was a commonly accepted rumor that General Yen, the shrewdly neutral governor of Shansi, had accpted $7,000,000, and Marshal Feng Yu-hsiang $3,000,000, for peace without victory. Actual military events in the war area were indecisive, but President Chiang Kai-shek was able to return from the front to Nanking on November 22 with assurances that the revolt was over.
Rebels Threaten Canton.—The truce in Central China enabled the Nanking Government to hasten the dispatch of troops by land and sea to Canton, which was threatened by the southward march of General Chang Fa-kwei’s “Ironsides” and other rebel forces. It appeared certain that Nanking would be able to handle this situation unless there was treachery on the part of the army leaders in control of the Canton garrison, before the arrival of reëforcements.
REPARATIONS PROBELMS
World Bank Arrangements. — The committee of financiers engaged in organizing the Bank of International Settlement surmounted one of their chief obstacles when in the second week of November they decided that the city of Basle in Switzerland—not London, Brussels, or a Dutch city —should be the seat of the bank. Prior to the decision, four of the seven nations represented on the committee favored Brussels, but this was eliminated by the fixed opposition of the German delegates. Upon the choice of Basle, the Belgian delegates left the conference, but they subsequently signed the charter, statutes, and trust deed which had been prepared by the committee.
The provisions of these latter documents, which were completed and signed on November 13, in general left problems of a political nature unsolved, and at the same time considerably reduced the financial activities of the bank from the scope anticipated by the framers of the Young Plan. In particular, Article XX of the Bank Statutes, the so-called “veto clause,” provides that before any financial operation “in a given country or a given currency,” the central bank of that country shall have an opportunity to dissent, and this dissent will prevent the operation.
Control of the bank will rest in the hands of the six nations, Great Britain, France, Italy, Japan, Belgium, with provisional inclusion of the United States, holding 56 per cent of the $100,000,000 capital. This 56 per cent will be held by the central banks of the various countries, except that in the United States it will be held by the Morgan Company, and in Japan by a consortium of banks. It was expected that the chairmanship of the board of control would be given to a prominent American banker, perhaps Mr. M. A. Traylor of the American delegation, and that the general manager would be a Frenchman.
After completion of the committee’s work it was revealed that the American delegates, finding the activities of the bank greatly limited by the conservatism of the European delegates, frequently intimated that no group of American bankers would care to cooperate. American participation was finally assured by a direct appeal to Mr. J. P. Morgan, then in London.
To complete the work of the bankers, a committee of jurists met in Brussels on December 1, and it was expected that a second Hague conference of political representatives would convene in January for final decisions regarding the bank and execution of the new plan of reparations.
German “Liberty Law.”—The so-called “Liberty Law,” which if enacted would prevent German acceptance of the Young plan, was brought before the Reichstag in November by the method, provided in the German constitution, of securing a favorable vote from one-tenth of the German electorate. The one-tenth vote was barely secured, but the measure was overwhelmingly defeated in the Reichstag, with every prospect that it will be defeated in the popular referendum which must follow. Although there is at present a strong swing to the right in German politics, and much opposition to the new reparations arrangements, there is little prospect that this will reach the point of upsetting the Young plan. A favorable impression was created by the French evacuation of the second Rhineland zone which began November 30, and the assurance of complete evacuation as soon as the Young plan is actually working.
FRANCE
Success of Tardieu Ministry.—The majority of 79 votes in the French Chamber won by the Tardieu Ministry on November 9 following the presentation of the ministerial policies and program, was much larger than expected, and coupled with the strong speech of the premier, was taken as a promise of unforeseen stability and permanence for the new cabinet. Premier Tardieu gained support from the Right by promise of a firmer conduct of foreign and home affairs, Foreign Minister Briand placated the Left Center, and the opposition was confined to the more radical parties of the Left. Premier Tardieu indicated that French interests would be safeguarded, and Foreign Minister Briand not given an entirely free hand, in the London Naval Conference, the Conference on the Young Plan, and the next League Council meeting, all scheduled for the coming January.
Sarre Negotiations.—Negotiations between France and Germany began at Paris on November 20 for settlement of the disposition of the Sarre basin before the date fixed by the Versailles Treaty. An agreement is sought by which German Sovereignty can be restored without injury to the French investments in the province amounting to $257,000,000, or three-fourths of its total wealth. French exploitation of the Sarre coal resources has raised the annual product to 14,000,000 tons, most of which is essential to the French steel industry. The Versailles Treaty provides for a plebiscite in the province in 1935, but it is recognized that the sentiment of the population is overwhelmingly in favor of return to German rule.
Death of Clemenceau.—Georges Clemenceau, physician, editor, expert swordsman, and wartime Premier of France, died in Paris of heart failure on November 24. He was in his eighty-eighth year. He had just completed a volume of memoirs vigorously defending his rule of France during the closing period of the war and his decision not to push the French boundaries up to the Rhine. A state funeral was contrary to Clemenceau’s wishes, and he was buried simply in his native province of Vendee.
UNITED STATES AND LATIN AMERICA
Rubio President of Mexico.—The Mexican presidential election on November 17 resulted in the choice of engineer Ortiz Rubio, candidate of the National Revolutionary Party, by an overwhelming vote. The figures of about 1,800,000 votes to 110,- 000 for the opposition candidate Jose Vasconcelos, no doubt mean little in view of wholesale methods of intimidation and violence used to suppress the opposition vote, but impartial observers were doubtful if Vasconcelos could have won in a fair election. Rubio was the choice of ex-President Calles, and his election means a continuation of the anti-Catholic, radical policies followed in Mexico under Obregon, Calles, and Portes Gil. President-elect Rubio left Mexico at the end of November for a trip to the United States which will include visits in New York and Washington.
Antarctic Territorial Claims.—The successful flight of the Byrd Expedition across the South Pole in November created a renewed interest in territorial claims in the antarctic continent. The United States Government on November 15 sent a somewhat belated reply to a British note of November, 1928, in which the British asserted possession of vast land areas in the antarctic, especially in the regions covered by the Byrd expedition. The American reply did not acquiesce in the British claims, but left the question open for future settlement. American claims are based largely on the discoveries of Commodore Wilkes in 1840, though antarctic territory has never been formally claimed by act of Congress. The question gains added importance from the possibilities of mineral resources in the region and its exploitation by aviation.
MISCELLANEOUS
Population and War.—The Living Age of November 25 quotes a statement of Professor H. P. Fairchild of New York University that “A century of stationary population in all the countries of the world would do more to usher in an era of universal peace than all the disarmament agreements and anti-war treaties that have ever been penned.”
This apparently simple solution of the war problem takes added interest from figures quoted elsewhere in the same magazine regarding the growth of population in Japan.
When Force Backed Diplomacy.—In a review, in Time, November 25, of the recently published and highly interesting correspondence of former British ambassador Spring-Rice, occurs the following extract from a letter of President Roosevelt regarding the Kaiser and the Monroe Doctrine:
“I have more than once been greatly exasperated with the Kaiser myself. When I first came into the Presidency I was inclined to think that the Germans had serious designs upon South America. But I think I succeeded in impressing upon the Kaiser, quietly and unofficially and with equal courtesy and emphasis, that any violation of the Monroe Doctrine by territorial aggrandizement on his part around the Caribbean meant war, not ultimately but immediately and without delay. He has always been as nice as possible to me since….”