FROM JULY 3 TO AUGUST 3
FRANCE
National Union Cabinet under Poincare.—A rapid sequence of cabinet changes in France ended on July 23 with the establishment of a strong “Government of National Union’’ headed by Raymond Poincare. The Briand Ministry fell on June 17, when a part of its Socialist supporters led by Herriot joined the Nationalists in defeating the financial measures of M. Caillaux. M. Herriot, the Socialist leader, then organized a weak ministry which lasted but two days, during which the franc touched a new low level. Upon its defeat, 302 delegates in an appeal to the President pledged their support for any cabinet organized on a strong basis from leaders of all parties.
Former Premier Poincare, assuming this task, announced-on July 23, a cabinet, which included six former premiers, with M. Poincare as Premier and Minister of Finance, M. Briand at his old post of foreign affairs, M. Painleve as Minister of War, and M. Herriot as Minister of Education. The cabinet represented the whole Right Center and Moderate Left.
On its initial appearance before the Chamber on July 27 the new government received a strong confidence vote, and a majority of 300 for its financial measures was predicted. These measures called for increased taxation, rather than inflation or foreign loans. They provided for government by decree until December 31, higher taxes on transportation, a business turn over tax of 2 per cent, and many other increases.
Premier Poincare decided to postpone submission of the American and British debt agreements to the Chamber. It was reported that in the mean time he would seek to obtain from Washington a safeguarding assurance, similar to that accompanying the British agreement, providing for modification of terms if German payments fell below 30 per cent of normal.
Franco-British Debt Agreement.—On July 12 an Anglo-French war debt agreement was at last completed and signed, with a number of concessions, favorable to France, from the terms which were virtually agreed upon last autumn. Postponements of payments, not exceeding one half of the semi-annual instalments, are permitted for not more than three years. More important, from the French standpoint, is the provision made in letters accompanying the agreement by which the British Government agrees to reconsideration of terms in the event of failure of German payments to France.
The agreement provides for payments of £775,000,000 spread over sixty-two years, increasing from £4,000,000 in 1926-27 to £12,500,000 annually from 1930 to 1957, and £14,000,000 annually from 1957 to 1988.
Abd-el-Krim Exiled.—On July 13, Premier Briand of France and Premier Primo de Rivera of Spain signed an accord readjusting their rights in Morocco following the defeat of the Riffs. The Riff leader, Abd-el-Krim, was exiled to Reunion Island, east of Madagascar in the Indian Ocean.
BELGIUM
King Given Dictatorial Power.—To solve its financial problems involved in the disastrous decline of the franc, the Belgian Chamber on July 13 passed a bill giving to the King for a period of six months practically dictatorial powers in matters of taxation and finance. By decree he may modify tax and currency regulations, dispose of state property, ensure return of capital hidden abroad, and take many other specified measures to strengthen the country’s financial position. By this action King Albert became Europe’s first “royal dictator.”
GREAT BRITAIN
England and Sea Power.—(By Archibald Hurd, Fortnightly Review, May).
What is to be the future of the British fleet? In the light of all that has happened during the past eight years the question is not an idle one, particularly as there is talk of another international conference for the discussion of plans for disarmament. Is the policy of scrapping our sea traditions, as well as our ships and men, to continue, under the influence of a mistaken conception of our dominant problem of defense? Are we going on ruthlessly economizing on the only force which can assure to us the arrival in due season of the vast cargoes of food and raw materials which are essential if we are to live and work? Are we to continue restricting the only insurance policy under which we can safeguard the “invisible exports” which must be maintained if we are to balance our trading account from year to year? Are we to persist in sacrificing the one force upon the strength of which, as events continue to remind us, our prestige as well as, in the last analysis, our credit depend? Shall we throw away the one instrument that protects our shores inviolate against overseas invasion by the great armies which are still maintained on the European continent? These are questions which will have to be answered at the judgment seat of history.
Signor Mussolini has lately declared that Italy’s destiny “is now, and will be, on the sea.” Are we, in this little but densely crowded island, with a world-wide maritime empire looking towards us for security, losing our faith in the virtues of sea power?
POLAND AND EASTERN EUROPE
Polish Parliament and Cabinet in Accord.—Return to constitutional procedure in Poland took place on July 19 when Premier Bartel, for the first time since General Pilsudski’s coup, presented the government’s policies directly to the Diet for its approval. In his address the premier protested vigorously against rumors of offensive designs against Lithmania. He declared that foreign policy would be decided not by the Minister of War, Pilsudski, but by the cabinet as a whole. Alien minorities would be accorded equal rights with Poles, and Anti-Semitic discrimination would be stopped.
The Diet approved most of the government’s program of reforms, which included giving the president power to dissolve parliament and call new elections, but only once on the same issue, and also power to rule by decree during recesses of the Diet.
It appeared that the Pilsudski regime had established itself firmly by quasi-constitutional methods.
Soviet Fear of Poland and Japan.—(By Walter Duranty, New York Times, 21 July).
MOSCOW, July 20.—On both Eastern and_ Western frontiers of the Soviet Union thunder clouds are gathering. Though neither storm yet menaces Russian territory, both may gravely damage Russian interests.
The western disturbance centers in the little Baltic state of Lithuania, against which the Russians believe Marshal Pilsudski of Poland is planning a coup.
The focus of the eastern danger is at the junction point of the new Japanese-built railroad, the Tsitsika Taonan Poo, with the Chinese eastern line in Northern Manchuria.
It is not easy for Moscow to dismiss rumors that Marshal Pilsudski is planning an adventure against Lithuania as mere exaggerations of the Chauvinist press of Poland. Zeligowski’s capture of Vilna a few years ago, though disavowed by Marshal Pilsudski, was later admitted to have been made on orders by him.
Nor can the Russians accent the theory that these rumors are being circulated by Polish national Democrats and other of Pilsudski’s opponents in order to discredit him and to hinder his chance of obtaining a foreign loan. The New York Times today was informed on high authority that the Soviet Government is aware of a whole series of facts indicating the probability of a Polish coup a month or six weeks hence. It was said that the usual summer leave of all Polish divisions on the Lithuanian frontier has been canceled and that the number of the troops has been considerably increased.
The Clerical Party, which is extremely strong in Poland, is said here to be aiming at nothing less than a "merger,” that is, the annexation of Lithuania by Poland. Apparently the scheme finds some support among the Clerical Party in Lithuania.
The Polish Military Party, it is said, wishes to distract the country’s attention from the economic and political chaos, created by the Pilsudski’s administration, by means of a jingo adventure against Lithuania, whose power of resistance is considered negligible in Warsaw.
A successful coup, with further Polish schemes for a Baltic hegemony, which Moscow is convinced now has the tacit support of England.
In short, although it is realized here that Poland’s international and internal position to make any military adventure is so dangerous as to appear incredible, the Polish national character in general and Marshal Pilsudski’s in particular are such that there is a possibility of an attempt to upset the unstable equilibrium of this section of Europe.
The Manchurian danger, though less acute, is causing no less anxiety here. The Tsitsika Taonan Foo line is the most nearly completed of all the strategic and economically important Japanese railroads now being built or projected in Manchuria. Their obvious, indeed, their avowed purpose is to ensure Japan’s hold upon food, timber and mineral resources of the Asiatic mainland.
Whether Moscow was right in believing that this is a remote, preliminary of the far-sighted Japanese general staff to an inevitable Japanese-American war, does not greatly affect the immediate issue, which presents a sharp point of conflict between Japan and Russia, because Tsitsika. the center of cultivation of the soya bean, the food importance of which is enormous to the overcrowded Japanese population, lies north of the Chinese Eastern railroad, which the new Japanese line must cross to reach Taonan Foo on the Manchurian system further south.
A concession in the charter of the Chinese Eastern, jointly managed by Russians and Chinese, gives it exclusive rights over the 100- kilometer-wide belt of territory through which the line runs.
The Japanese are now demanding to link up the northern and southern sections of the Tsitsika Taonon Foo road, both already constructed at great expense, across this 100-kilometer belt and the Chinese Eastern.
The Russians refuse, because they think it clear that this line is only the thin edge of the Japanese wedge, to be followed by others which would establish Japanese mastery in Northern Manchuria and finally make Vladivostak untenable.
But if the Japanese insist, it is unlikely that the Russians will be able to resist effectively. Much depends on internal events in China and the direction of the sympathies of the dominant Chinese group towards Russia or Japan as the case may be.
UNITED STATES AND LATIN AMERICA
Action on World Court Reservations.—Information made public in Washington on July 2 showed that of the forty-two nations to whom the United States had presented its reservations regarding entry into the World Court, only three had signified their acceptance. These were, Cuba, Greece and Liberia. Six others had replied that they would delay decision until after a conference at Geneva in September. No replies were received from Great Britain, Japan, and Italy. Other nations merely acknowledged receipt of the notifications.
Religious Conflict in Mexico.—In view of the government’s measures against Catholics in Mexico, the church ordered withdrawal of the clergy from all churches, to take effect August 1, with almost complete suspension of religious services.
The government retaliated by ordering that in such an event the churches should be taken over by the civil authorities. Catholics were disarmed, orders were issued against carrying weapons without permits, and many Catholic leaders were put under arrest. Although supported by labor and socialist elements, these drastic measures excited intense opposition among loyal Catholics and threatened to bring on civil war.
Tacna-Arica Possibilities.—Upon his return to the United States for a two month-vacation, William M. Collier, U. S. Ambassador to Chile, declared that, in spite of the failure of the Tacna-Arica plebiscite, American prestige in South America had not been impaired, and there was still a prospect that the dispute would be settled by a compromise which would give part of the territory to Bolivia.
Chile on July 26 instructed her ambassador at Washington to protest against the abandonment of the plebiscite, on the ground that General Lassiter had not power to take such action.
FAR EAST
War Cries From Japan.—(Reprinted from The Trans-Pacific in the Literary Digest of July 17).
War with America is demanded by two Japanese publicists, each the author of a series of articles of wide circulation in the Island Empire. “America is the scourge of Japan,” since “the Japanese have a grievance against the white races of the world in general, and against the Americans in particular.” The United States is “a devil which restrains Japan from having recourse” to the expansionist policy which is its only salvation. Also, “the United States is an evil spirit menacing the existence of Japan who is now under the pressing necessity of trying conclusions with her. A war with the United States is an absolute necessity.” These are some of the typical assertions which the Japanese public is being asked to believe. They are more worthy of passing attention than if we were in the midst of a jingo era, declares The Trans-Pacific, an American review of the Far East, published by the Japan Advertiser in Tokyo. There was much loose talk in Japan about war with the United States just prior to the Washington Conference and again following the American Senate’s incorporation of the Japanese exclusion clause in the Immigration Law. The present articles, observes The Trans-Pacific, are “very different in nature from the cheap flubdub that was being shouted from the street corners until the Washington Conference silenced such self-appointed orators.” As The Trans-Pacific’s editor explains the matter:
“The ideas come from men of standing in Japan and are not, apparently, based primarily on resentment against the United States or against anything that the United States may have done, but one of them on the belief that a war with America would act as the spiritual purgative that Japanese society sorely needs and the other on the desire for a strong naval machine.”
Nevertheless, remarks the reviewer, “the old adage about playing with fire naturally comes to mind.” Mr. Akivama’s inflammatory call for a war with America is not accompanied, in its Japanese presentations, with the explanation which he gave to an American reporter. In the case of the other Japanese advocate of war with the United States, Seijiro Kawashima, whose articles appear in a Japanese periodical called Naikwan (Introspection), a very vigorous and inflammatory attack on America is presented down to the final (hypothetical) victory of Japan in a naval action in the Pacific. The Kawashima articles, which are translated in two long instalments in the Japan Advertiser, begin with the announcement that the population of Japan will soon reach 100,000,000. The necessity for emigration is thus “a matter of life and death for this nation.” The article continues:
“The writer will not cease from agitating for the universal open door of the world. He will continue to be insistent upon having the doors of the Americas, Australia, Africa and of all territories under the aegis of great nations opened, because this is the injunction of Providence.
“There is a devil which restrains Japan from having recourse to such a policy. It is no other than the United States. She now repels immigrants from this country, and has a secret intention of driving out those Japanese who have already settled there, and even those who have been granted American citizenship. We know that the Japanese in the United States have been persecuted and treated cruelly. Not content with the exclusion of Japanese from her land, the United States is strenuous in preventing our nationals from entering quarters beyond her jurisdiction. Canada, Australia and other nations are following suit. Japan can no longer stand such injustice. A Japanese-American conflict is decreed by Heaven.
“Japan has reached an impasse because of the United States’ anti-Japanese policy. Japan is under political and economic adversity, owing to the foreign policy of the United States. This mortifying nuisance must be kicked out of the way of Japan. For this purpose a war with America is a vital necessity to Japan. The extermination of this abominable impediment will restore sound national health to this Empire.
“Should, however, victory for Japan be improbable, a Japanese- American war would be fatal to Japan. Will Japan be successful? A majority of Japanese are not free from a feeling of anxiety, but the writer asserts that Japan can conduct a successful campaign.”
Most of the rest of these articles is given up to a detailed description of a possible war between Japan and the United States. This is written in a way which suggests to the editor of The Trans-Pacific that the Japanese publicist has been a careful reader of Mr. Hector Bywater’s recent novel, The Great Pacific War. Japan, after suffering several reverses, concludes a peace with, victory.