The Selection of Man Power at Its Source
(See page 1695, October, 1924 Proceedings)
Commander D. E. Cummings, U. S. Navy.—Lieutenant Bagby’s paper, “The Selection of Man Power at Its Source,” in the October Institute Proceedings, is very timely and very well prepared. His conclusion, that the Navy has in the O’Rourke Test a means of selecting recruits at the source, is well justified. Such selection would benefit the Navy very greatly. The O’Rourke Test, of which the paper treats, is a classification test such as is used to determine the mental age of literate individuals. Such tests are of value in proportion to (a) what they indicate, and (b) how surely they indicate it. The full value of the O'Rourke Test has not yet been derived. In order that it should be derived, it is first necessary to “test the test” to make sure just what its uses and limitations are. Having done this, the results may then be used with assurance.
If it could be definitely shown that the O’Rourke Test could be made to eliminate a large percentage of our undesirables without doing injustice to any great number of good men in the process, every one in the Navy would be for it. Lieutenant Bagby considers that it can do this. So do I. But it is desirable to find out definitely.
In testing a test such as this, it is necessary to try it on a large number of men, but not govern their selection by it. This has been done. Some thousands of men have been given the test at training stations. Some hundreds of men who had been declared deserters but had been apprehended were also given the test. Comparisons of the scores made show that twice as large a percentage of low intelligence men is found among the deserters as among the general run of recruits. If the deserters were to be compared with men who had definitely succeeded in the service instead of with “run of the mines,” no doubt this difference would be much greater. It is right here that great benefit may be derived from the test, for it is entirely possible to take the tests already in hand and compare the test results with results in service. Two easy methods suggest themselves. One is to take, say, a hundred names of recruits who a year ago made less than 30 on the test, and see what has become of them; then do the same with a hundred who made over 70, or with a hundred who made over 50, if you like. Compare results and see what they indicate.
The other method is to take as large groups as possible of men who, by successfully qualifying for advancement in rating within the year, or by completing school courses, or by other available means, have shown evidence of being “good men for the Navy.” Plot a curve of results. On the same sheet plot a curve of deserters, one of undesirables, one of men convicted by courts-martial, and one of each of the other recognizable classes of men who have not proved desirable.
Such curves take the general forms indicated in the attached sketch. On this sketch, curve A shows a group of men most of whom made high marks,
the peak being at about 80. Curve B represents another group most of whom made low marks, the peak being at about 40. Obviously if we refused to recruit men making marks below that corresponding to X, say 50, we would thereby eliminate only the tag end of group A, but would eliminate all but a few of group B. If, on the other hand, the curves A and B were approximately identical, it would be evident that the test was of little value for the purpose of distinguishing between the kind of men represented by those groups. For example, curves of deserters and of “run of the mine” recruits actually do show a characteristic difference similar to that shown in the sketch, thus indicating that the test is of value as indicating which groups of men will produce most of the deserters. On the other hand, the “run of the mine” curve and the curve of receiving ability at the radio school show no such marked difference, indicating that the test is of little, if any, value for prognosticating ability to receive radio.
It will be obvious from the above that the Navy now has a means available for picking out certain classes of men for selection, but is has not yet found out just what classes of men the test is good for. May I, therefore, add to Lieutenant Bagby’s plea for selection out at the source a further plea for testing the O’Rourke Test to see just where the line should be drawn, and what other selective value it has. This done, other tests may then be devised and tested for use in other needed selections, and much time may thus be saved for all concerned by guiding men into paths for which they are best fitted, or, at least, keeping them out of paths that are too steep.