There is controversy within the Navy concerning the future role of the P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft.
At issue is the impact of the highly successful use of Orions to support land combat operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. With permissive air environments, the P-3s were able to operate effectively as reconnaissance and communications relay aircraft. Their long enduranceenabling them to both reach the operational area and remain on stationmade them particularly valuable.1
The P-3 force is now being armed with the AGM-84H stand-off land-attack missile-expanded response (SLAM-ER), which joins the Mk 20 Rockeye bombs and other non-antisubmarine weapons. The SLAM-ER has a range of approximately 150 nautical miles and with Global Positioning System (GPS)/inertial plus infrared/video command homing guidance is a potent and flexible weapon. Thus, the P-3s are highly desirable to theater and ground commanders for overland operations.
The commitment of P-3s to land operations is not without cost. The aircraft, of course, are optimized for maritime patrol and antisubmarine warfare (ASW). Even with most of the Russian fleet alongside piers, there still is plenty of "maritime business" for the P-3s. Today, naval aircraft are tracking and monitoring Third World merchant ships, especially those suspected of smuggling illegal arms and drugs, in many areas of the world. And there remains a submarine threat, or at least concern, in certain littoral areas of interest to the United States, including Iranian submarines in the Persian Gulf area, North Korean submarines in the Far East, and Chinese submarines. As crises arise, whether or not submarines are involved, P-3s often will be required to undertake long-range surveillance missions.
This dichotomy of missions for the P-3 is causing concerns in many parts of the Navy. Aircraft that are performing and training for overland missions are not carrying out or practicing maritime surveillance and ASW missions. And with ASW being as much art as science, the shift of emphasis already is causing a reduction in capabilities, according to some informed sources.
At the same time, the P-3 force is being reduced precipitously. At the beginning of 2004, the Navy had some 225 "straight" P-3C Orions-140 in active patrol squadrons, 40 in reserve squadrons, and 45 in pipeline status.2 Because of airframe fatigue and corrosion, about one-half will be retired within a year, and previous proposals for a replacement have been stillborn.
The Navy now has the multimission maritime aircraft (MMA) program planned to replace its P-3C and EP-3E Orion aircraft. Two competitive aircraft have been selected for initial development: a Lockheed Martin upgrade of the P-3 designated Orion 21 and a derivative of the Boeing 737-700. The latter was developed by a team comprised of Boeing, CFM International, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, and Smiths Aerospace. Navy planning provides for an initial MMA operational capability with 22 aircraft between fiscal year (FY) 2010 and FY 2012. A total of 120-150 aircraft initially was proposed, but was cut to approximately 100 in 2003.
A complementary-some say alternative-system that could affect P-3 replacement is the proposed broad-area maritime surveillance (BAMS) program. This concept is for a large, land-based unmanned aerial vehicle. The Navy is funding a maritime demonstration with the Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk. Two are being acquired and modified for maritime intelligence/surveillance/reconnaissancc, but they will not be delivered until about FY 2005, with tests, demonstrations, and fleet battle exercises planned through FY 2009, when an operational capability could be possible-if the evaluation is successful, funding is available, etc.
There are other candidates for the BAMS vehicle, including the giant, high-flying Helios system. And in 2003, General Atomics Aeronautical and Lockheed Martin announced they would team to offer the Navy a maritime version of the Predator B for the BAMS role. Although of significantly shorter range than Global Hawk, the Predator family of vehicles (designated MQ-1 and MQ-9) has been highly successful in several combat environments. The maritime Predator B could-according to the firms-be operational by late FY 2007 or early 2008.
Thus, with the increase in overland missions, the accelerated retirement of the P-3s, and the lack of clarity over follow-on programs, the future of aircraft for maritime patrol and ASW in the U.S. Navy is ambiguous at best.
1 See, for example, David Reade, "P-3s Remain Frontline Combatants," U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, September 2003, pp. 36-40.
2 Nonstandard Orions include EP-3E electronic intelligence collection aircraft, NP-3 research aircraft, VP-3 transport aircraft, and UP-3 utility aircraft.