In the future, naval forces will play a decisive role in multinational partnerships. One model of cooperation would be a standing naval exercise force in the Baltic Sea structured like the one that participated in Exercise Baltops '93: the Swedish minelayer Alvsborg, German frigate Karlsruhe, USS Deyo (DD-989), and Russian frigate Bditel'nyy.
During the Cold War, life was relatively easy for military planners. Leading Western politicians told us that the Soviet Union was the "evil empire," and if they were the bad guys, we had to be the good guys by definition. The Soviet perspective was no doubt the other way around. Throughout the 20th century, maritime developments generally followed the theories of Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan, who was a maritime version of Clausewitz. After World War I, the great naval powers struggled for leading roles on a global scale; the Washington Naval Treaty was just one example of this competition. When the United States became the leading sea power, other nations attempted to create major sea-denial capabilities, as did Germany in World War IT. Later, the Soviet Union developed large-scale naval raid forces once it realized that it could not keep pace with the U.S. Navy.
In the 21st century, only one true sea power exists, which could lead one to conclude that Mahan's theories are becoming more and more outdated. However, I believe this would be a false conclusion, because navies will continue to be valuable political and military instruments. In the 20th century, hostilities occurred between successful states; in this century, warfare will be conducted between the noncompetitive states and the successful ones.
In the future, nations will not fight to conquer, but rather to maintain the status quo and foster stability in which to grow. East-West military confrontation has been replaced by various threats originating from poverty, religious fundamentalism, and the struggle for natural resources—the latter of which will focus more and more on access to energy sources and fresh water. The common features of these challenges are that they are transnational and asymmetric in nature, and they thrive on instability. They are in direct conflict with states whose prosperity is linked to a stable, global market. Thus, future naval tasks will be diverse and will require new and innovative solutions. Examples of these challenges are:
- Terrorism. Nationalism, religious fundamentalism, anarchy, sectarianism, and single-issue activism produce extremists prepared to use violence to achieve their objectives. The military will play a vital role in countering this threat—especially state-sponsored terrorism—and protecting military forces and civilian agencies abroad.
- Drugs and International Crime. The threat of drug-related and other international crime is increasing throughout the world. Drug dealers and users are responsible for a high proportion of violent crime, fraud, money laundering, and corruption. The resources available to drug traffickers have resulted in mounting violence among criminal organizations. These groups increasingly use international seas for the transit of illicit goods, human cargo, and piracy.
- Weapons Proliferation. The potential spread of weapons of mass destruction and the means of their delivery is of grave concern worldwide. Proliferation of highly sophisticated conventional weapons is equally worrisome and will, of course, require effective countermeasures as well.
- Multinational Maritime Law Enforcement. Coast guards often do not have the means to pursue those committing crime outside territorial waters. Although many navies have the means to do so, questions as to legal authority still are under debate in national and international forums.
There is no doubt that naval forces have the wherewithal to deal with these new challenges, but comprehensive and unambiguous rules of engagement are required for the commander at sea. In Germany, there is strict separation between police and military tasks. Sailors currently are not trained to carry out police functions. Clear-cut political decisions will have to be made and discussion of these issues already has started.
Future maritime challenges will add to traditional naval tasks that will remain largely unchanged—except for the new capabilities needed to accomplish them. Some 70% of the earth's surface is covered by seas. More than 80% of United Nations member states are coastal countries. Many of them have extended their jurisdictions out to sea, in some cases as far as 200 nautical miles (nm) or more. Maritime activities, such as shipping, fishing, and oil exploration are conducted within that 200 nm coastal zone. This means that a substantial part of the world's economic and political activity is carried out in a narrow strip of land and sea no wider on average than 300 nm. This is the area known as the "littoral," where most future naval forces will operate. So, the maritime dimension of international relations will remain critical—as will the use of navies in securing political and economic interests.
A major difference between Cold War developments and those needed in the future is the increasing importance of littoral capabilities. For at least the next ten years, likely mission profiles are: partnership and cooperation; combined and joint crisis-management operations; and maintenance—and build-up if required—of sufficient forces for general defense in the unlikely case of a major conflict.
Navies have assumed a prominent role in crisis-management operations. Coming from the high seas, they operate in littoral waters to support land and air forces in their respective missions. Of utmost importance in these scenarios is the ability to bring naval surface fire support to bear on targets ashore. Initial operations in the Balkans underscored this requirement.
Revolutionary development in information technology is another aspect that will lead to a fundamental change in the role of future navies. In the future, accessing and processing almost unlimited quantities of information in real time will be imperative. To master future situations, huge amounts of operational data and detailed target information will be distributed down to individual units. This will require advanced naval information networks and a radical change in command-and-control philosophy. For example, higher military—or even political—authorities will make crucial decisions on the selection of land targets and the time of weapons release. Naval commanders might not be able to control these missions or verify target data, but will have to execute them. Coping with this kind of centralization will take a new generation of leaders and crews that are trained to an advanced professional and technical level.
Strategic sealift will be another - requirement. All nations must contribute to the "pool" because sea lift and amphibious shipping are scarce resources worldwide. The need for transporting logistic and medical support over long distances will grow by leaps and bounds. On yet another plane, weapons of mass destruction carried by ballistic missiles aimed at homelands and deployed troops will continue to pose grave danger to threatened countries. The contributions of maritime forces to ballistic missile defense are under study in several countries.
Although the foregoing points cover only a small part of future mission profiles, new parameters for dealing with weapons effects in littoral warfare are a decisive factor in procurement of weapons systems and the composition of future fleets. However, some 95% of maritime missions will be peacetime missions or operations other than war; the remaining 5% will be the source of warfighting rationale to be applied to the shaping of navies. It is debatable whether all navies will be able to keep pace with procurement requirements. Navies must be prepared for the most difficult scenarios, even if they are not likely to happen. At the same time, it is well to remember that they are more likely to occur than was all-out war during the era of East-West confrontation.
You might ask what qualifies a German admiral to write about global naval trends and issues in the 21st century. I simply believe that some European ideas about the future role of navies are transferable to other regions of the world—especially with regard to partnership and cooperation. The Baltic Sea area can serve as an example of the increasing importance of littoral capabilities. Stability in this region can be achieved only if all countries bordering the Baltic are actively involved. The various nations involved are, in some cases, members or partners in different supranational organizations: the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Western European Union/European Union, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
Partnership and cooperation will be our day-to-day business, and naval forces will play a decisive role. Units from various countries can meet on the high seas to conduct naval exercises for which no diplomatic clearances are required. As opposed to the stationing of ground or air forces in foreign countries, naval port visits usually generate positive public opinion.
One model of cooperation would be a multinational naval exercise force. It would enhance mutual understanding of how to accomplish maritime tasks together. Such a common force could learn from even the smaller navies and would be a demonstration of goodwill by all nations bordering the Baltic. More practically, it could develop unique capabilities in littoral warfare and improved crisis-management planning. A littoral warfare task group developed from the exercise force could be deployed outside the Baltic Sea to augment and reinforce fleets. In my view, this "Baltic Sea model" can be transferred easily to other regions of the world.
Conclusions
Navies will continue to be valuable political and military instruments for the foreseeable future. Although traditional skills will be required, naval leaders will have to adapt to new challenges requiring individual flexibility and willingness to go beyond strategic thinking of the past. The increasing importance of littoral operations will lead to new challenges and opportunities—especially for navies taking part in regional endeavors.
Defense budgets will probably decrease rather than increase and navies will have to do more with less. Public opinion and most politicians are looking for a peace dividend. Therefore, the task of naval officers in every country is to advance and discuss the future of maritime affairs with politicians, industrialists, and other influential experts so as to maintain a common understanding of the importance of navies in national and international security policy.
Admiral Kempf has served numerous assignments at sea and ashore, including as commanding officer of the frigate Emden and as German National Liaison representative to the Supreme Allied Commander, Atlantic. He is currently Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations on the Naval Staff in Bonn.